Okzhetpes are set to host Zhenys in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three goals, a 22% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3% probability. The model favours a home win, giving Okzhetpes a 49% chance, a draw 25%, and a Zhenys win 26%. Okzhetpes have scored 1.71 goals per game at home against similar opposition and conceded 1.64, while Zhenys average 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded on the road. Recent form shows Okzhetpes on a two-game winning run after a 3-2 win over Kaisar, and Zhenys on a three-game winning streak after a 1-0 victory over Altay. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (89.9%), Home +2 handicap (88.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.4%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Okzhetpes win
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys win
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Okzhetpes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.60
1.73
1.71
1.64
1.50
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.33
2.00
0.94
1.79
1.79
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.67
1.50
1.25
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.95
1.20
2.17
0.83
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.1%
Under 2.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-0
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.3%
Okzhetpes goals ↓
Zhenys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
4.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.9%
11%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.3%
9.5%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.5%
5.9%
3.8%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.7%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Okzhetpes goals (down), columns = Zhenys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Okzhetpes is 0.05 points better than Zhenys in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Okzhetpes is 0.45 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Okzhetpes is 0.40 goals worse than Zhenys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Okzhetpes
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhenys
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Okzhetpes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Okzhetpes or Draw
74.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Okzhetpes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes or Zhenys
75.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Okzhetpes + Zhenys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zhenys
50.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Zhenys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
Under
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Okzhetpes, so a minus line means Okzhetpes give that many goals of a start and Zhenys receive them. At -1, Okzhetpes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Okzhetpes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes -2
13.0%
Draw -2
15.3%
Zhenys +2
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes -1
28.3%
Draw -1
21.1%
Zhenys +1
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes +1
74.2%
Draw +1
14.5%
Zhenys -1
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Okzhetpes)
Okzhetpes +2
88.7%
Draw +2
7.5%
Zhenys -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Okzhetpes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.57
0.75
1.06
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.31
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.55
1.17
0.33
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Okzhetpes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.07
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.00
0.62
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.65
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Okzhetpes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Okzhetpes's squad is €1m more valuable than Zhenys's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Okzhetpes and Zhenys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Okzhetpes and Zhenys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Okzhetpes and Zhenys have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →