The model favours a home win, with Oleksandria expected to edge Yarud Mariupol’ 1-1, a 13.5% chance. Home win probability sits at 50%, draw 29%, away win 21%. The average goal total is 2.4, most likely a 2-goal match. Oleksandria’s home form shows a solid 1.0 goal per game and a tight 0.5 conceded, especially against weaker opposition. Yarud Mariupol’ struggles away, scoring only 0.5 and conceding 2.25 against stronger teams. Recent form underlines the story: Oleksandria are on a two-game winning streak after a 2-0 victory over Metal Kharkiv, while Yarud Mariupol’ come off a win but have a 3-1 loss to Kolos Kovalivka II. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home +2 handicap (92.6%), and Under 4.5 (90.6%). These reflect a low-scoring, home-dominated encounter.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oleksandria win
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oleksandria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.63
0.62
1.56
1.29
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.75
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.50
0.70
1.50
0.80
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.33
1.00
0.33
3.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.19
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.91
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.0%
No
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
12.8%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
Oleksandria goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.5%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
8.9%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oleksandria goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Oleksandria is 1.00 points better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Oleksandria is 1.00 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Oleksandria is 0.60 goals better than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Oleksandria or Draw
77.8%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Oleksandria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria or Yarud Mariupol'
70.6%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Oleksandria + Yarud Mariupol'
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yarud Mariupol'
51.6%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Draw + Yarud Mariupol'
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Oleksandria over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Oleksandria, so a minus line means Oleksandria give that many goals of a start and Yarud Mariupol' receive them. At -1, Oleksandria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Oleksandria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Oleksandria)
Oleksandria -2
9.5%
Draw -2
15.0%
Yarud Mariupol' +2
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Oleksandria)
Oleksandria -1
24.5%
Draw -1
23.9%
Yarud Mariupol' +1
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Oleksandria)
Oleksandria +1
77.8%
Draw +1
14.4%
Yarud Mariupol' -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Oleksandria)
Oleksandria +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.8%
Yarud Mariupol' -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oleksandria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.31
0.62
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.55
0.30
0.70
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.45
0.55
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oleksandria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oleksandria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.31
0.94
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.95
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oleksandria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oleksandria · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Papa Ndiaga Yade17%
Bryan Castillo11%
Hussayn Touati11%
Jota11%
Miguel Campos9%
Tedi Cara8%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Andrii Kulakov0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Anton Bol0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Mykola Oharkov0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denys Shostak50%
Jocelin Behiratche50%
Illia Ukhan50%
Danil Skorko43%
Papa Ndiaga Yade33%
Théo Ndicka Matam33%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva29%
Vaschenko Daniel27%
Bryan Castillo22%
Hussayn Touati22%
Bogdan Butko20%
Mykola Oharkov20%
Fernando Henrique18%
Dmytro Myshnyov15%
Andrii Kulakov12%
Miguel Campos9%
Anton Bol9%
Tedi Cara8%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Artem Kozak0%
Jota0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bryan Castillo11%
Hussayn Touati11%
Jota11%
Mykola Oharkov10%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Tedi Cara0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Miguel Campos0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Andrii Kulakov0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Anton Bol0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Papa Ndiaga Yade17%
Andrii Kulakov12%
Miguel Campos9%
Anton Bol9%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Tedi Cara0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Bryan Castillo0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Hussayn Touati0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Jota0%
Mykola Oharkov0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Oleksandria's squad is €4m more valuable than Yarud Mariupol''s (€8m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Oleksandria's attack is €2m more valuable than Yarud Mariupol''s (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Oleksandria and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Oleksandria's defence is €3m more valuable than Yarud Mariupol''s (€3m vs €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka