This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.87
1.00
2.07
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.81
1.85
1.00
2.00
0.62
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
10.0%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.4%
Olimpija Ljubljana goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
10.0%
12%
5.4%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.6%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.92 points better than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.89 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.75 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Olimpija Ljubljana is 16.3 percentage points better than Aluminij in terms of average possession (62% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
For 5.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aluminij
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.8 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.6
8.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
23.7
22.7
24.8
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
11.6
8.4
5.8
6.4
5.2
25.4
23.4
28.0
vs Similar (26)
8.3
9.1
7.4
2.8
2.6
3.1
22.9
22.6
23.2
vs Weaker (14)
11.2
13.3
10.0
2.1
1.4
2.4
23.6
22.0
24.6
% over line
64%
71%
58%
42%
46%
38%
62%
59%
65%
% under line
36%
29%
42%
58%
54%
62%
38%
41%
35%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.2
11.3
2.2
2.3
2.1
27.0
27.8
26.1
vs Stronger (4)
7.7
7.5
8.0
4.2
5.0
3.5
21.3
24.0
16.0
vs Similar (38)
10.5
9.5
11.7
2.4
2.5
2.4
27.9
28.5
27.2
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
64%
50%
80%
32%
35%
29%
77%
92%
60%
% under line
36%
50%
20%
68%
65%
71%
23%
8%
40%
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.2%
Under 9.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.9%
Under 21.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.43
0.50
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.71
0.38
0.50
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.47
1.07
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.71
0.57
1.06
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.71
1.00
0.62
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.33
0.50
0.25
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.53
1.00
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.37
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.23
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Lucas20%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović11%
Rui Pedro11%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Posavec0%
Timi Max Elšnik0%
Redi Kasa0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Aljaž Krefl0%
Saar Fadida0%
Mustafa Nukić0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Denis Pintol0%
Marko Brest0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Admir Bristrić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Admir Bristrić38%
Agustín Doffo29%
Timi Max Elšnik29%
Nemanja Motika25%
Rui Pedro22%
Matevž Vidovšek20%
Marko Brest20%
Ivan Posavec17%
David Sualehe14%
Saar Fadida14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Pedro Lucas0%
Redi Kasa0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
Aljaž Krefl0%
Mustafa Nukić0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Denis Pintol0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Timi Max Elšnik14%
Mustafa Nukić12%
Rui Pedro11%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Pedro Lucas0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Posavec0%
Redi Kasa0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Aljaž Krefl0%
Saar Fadida0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Denis Pintol0%
Marko Brest0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Timi Max Elšnik14%
David Sualehe14%
Mustafa Nukić12%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Pedro Lucas0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Posavec0%
Redi Kasa0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
Rui Pedro0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Aljaž Krefl0%
Saar Fadida0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Denis Pintol0%
Marko Brest0%
Nemanja Motika0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Olimpija Ljubljana's squad is €8m more valuable than Aluminij's (€12m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's attack is €4m more valuable than Aluminij's (€6m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Olimpija Ljubljana and Aluminij have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is €3m more valuable than Aluminij's (€5m vs €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Maribor
Bravo
Koper
NK Domzale
Mura
Rogaška
Radomlje
Nafta