Olimpija Ljubljana, coming off a recent defeat, hosts Aluminij in a Slovenia: 1. SNL match. The home side's recent form has been concerning, with four consecutive losses, but they are still favourites to win this match, with a 59% probability of a home win, followed by a 24% chance of a draw and an 18% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11.2%. Olimpija Ljubljana scores an average of 1.45 goals at home and concedes 1.09, while Aluminij scores 0.86 goals away and concedes 2.57 to a stronger opponent. The model's selection is the home win. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.5% probability, and there is an edge of 4% in this selection. The home win percentage is 59%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 18%.
Results analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana's win extends their recent run of poor form, having previously lost four consecutive matches. The final score was 1-0, a result that contradicts the model's expected total of 3 goals, with the most likely score being a 2-1 or 2-0 draw. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 59%. The model's call was also the favourite. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals missed with an 80.5% probability, whereas the actual total was a low 1 goal.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana win✓ Hit
58.6%
Avg Implied 56.1% · @ 1.62
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.74
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.95
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Bet365
3.90
Pinnacle
3.89
Aluminij win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.66
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.94
1xBet
4.86
Marathonbet
4.85
Dafabet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.40
1.75
1.00
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
1.10
1.45
1.09
1.33
1.11
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.83
1.25
1.38
0.93
2.36
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
2.00
1.20
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.75
1.22
1.33
0.86
2.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.20+4.0%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 3.91-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.17
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.70+2.2%
Under 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.04-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
10Bet
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
SBO
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.4%
@ 2.73+0.6%
Under 3.5
65.6%
@ 1.39-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
888Sport
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
@ 1.70+1.3%
No
44.6%
@ 2.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 6.88+4.8%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.21+3.8%
2-0
9.9%@ 7.67+4.2%
1-0 ✓
9.1%@ 7.08+2.9%
3-1
6.5%@ 11.28+2.6%
3-0
6.5%@ 11.48+2.7%
0-0
6.2%@ 11.53+2.4%
1-2
5.1%@ 13.63+1.9%
Olimpija Ljubljana goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.1%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.26
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.52 points better than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.25
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.50
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.19 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.58 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.5%
@ 2.02+9.5%
Under 9.5
44.5%
@ 1.72-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.8%
Under 3.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.3%
Under 21.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.40
0.82
0.36
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.50
0.81
0.14
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.18
0.40
1.00
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.81
0.56
0.67
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+4.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Celje
Bravo
Nafta
Mura
Koper
Brinje-Grosuplje
Radomlje