Olimpija Ljubljana are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 26% for a draw and 28% for Koper. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a fairly open game, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% chance. Olimpija’s home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similar opposition, while Koper’s away record is 1.88 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.9% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.6% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.6%. The recent form notes that Olimpija come off a draw and Koper are on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Koper overturned the pre-match favourite, Olimpija Ljubljana, with a 1-3 away win that ended Olimpija’s brief home run. The model had tipped a home victory with a 46% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark, with an 81.9% chance. Olimpija’s recent form - coming off a draw - was eclipsed by Koper’s two-game winning streak. The match’s final score of 1-3 confirmed the away side’s triumph, proving the model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect while its over-goal suggestion proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
2.00
0.80
1.47
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.22
1.33
1.22
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
2.42
0.58
3.00
0.17
1.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.43
1.75
1.00
1.93
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
6.00
3.00
5.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.31
1.25
0.88
1.88
1.75
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
0.83
2.14
0.57
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
Olimpija Ljubljana goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
5.2%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.2%
3.2%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.3%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.4%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.39 points worse than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.66 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Olimpija Ljubljana is 0.05 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
For 4.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.5 · Against 13.5 · Total 33.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
12.0
9.5
1.0
1.0
0.9
29.2
24.2
34.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
10.8
12.0
9.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
29.2
24.2
34.2
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
75%
75%
16%
16%
16%
88%
75%
100%
% under line
25%
25%
25%
84%
84%
84%
12%
25%
0%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.3
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.8%
Under 9.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.6%
Under 21.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.67
0.27
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.44
0.44
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.81
0.31
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.50
0.62
0.25
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.50
0.86
0.29
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.53
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.72
0.89
0.78
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.42
2.00
0.17
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
0.94
0.69
0.93
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
0.62
0.62
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.33
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco43%
Peter Agba17%
Ivan Durdov14%
Marko Brest12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reda Boultam50%
David Sualehe38%
Peter Agba33%
Jorge Silva29%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Manuel Pedreno20%
Thalisson20%
Justas Lasickas17%
Raul Florucz17%
Agustín Doffo14%
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Matevž Vidovšek12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Dino Kojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raul Florucz33%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Agustín Doffo14%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Álex Blanco0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Dino Kojić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Antonio Marin0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Marko Brest0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's squad is €4m more valuable than Koper's (€12m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Olimpija Ljubljana's attack is €3m more valuable than Koper's (€6m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Olimpija Ljubljana's midfield is €1m less valuable than Koper's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is €2m more valuable than Koper's (€5m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Bravo
Maribor
Radomlje
Aluminij
Mura
Primorje
NK Domzale
Nafta