Olimpija Ljubljana are expected to bounce back from a recent defeat, coming off a 0-1 loss to Celje. The model predicts a home win, with a 46% chance of Olimpija Ljubljana taking the three points, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of Maribor winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 14% of the time.
In terms of form, Olimpija Ljubljana have been scoring an average of 2 goals at home, conceding 1.33, while Maribor have been scoring 0.5 goals when away to similar opponents, conceding 1.25. The model suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.5% chance of this outcome. This pick is the model's selection, giving it a significant edge. Olimpija Ljubljana have a 46% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 24% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The draw between Olimpija Ljubljana and Maribor extends their recent form storyline, with both teams coming off a draw in their last matches. The final score of 1-1 was the most likely outcome, according to the model, with a probability of 28%. The pre-match favourite, Olimpija Ljubljana, failed to come through, despite being the model's selection with a 46% probability of winning. The model's call was wrong, as Maribor's 1-1 scoreline resulted in a draw. The model's selection of Olimpija Ljubljana to win had a 46% probability, while a draw was given a 30% probability. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 80.4% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana win✗ Miss
46.0%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.20
Edge
+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.52
Dafabet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
Draw✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.26
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.33
Maribor win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.08
Edge
-19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Dafabet
2.11
William Hil
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.13
1.53
1.07
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.39
1.33
1.33
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.75
1.83
0.67
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
2.36
0.64
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.26
2.25
0.88
0.82
1.55
vs Weaker (11)
1.91
0.64
2.50
0.33
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.27-5.3%
Under 1.5
32.3%
@ 3.41+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.8%
@ 1.89-9.5%
Under 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.84+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Bet365
1.95
888Sport
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.6%
@ 3.20-9.4%
Under 3.5
80.4%
@ 1.31+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.8%
@ 1.69-8.8%
No
54.2%
@ 2.03+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
No
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%@ 5.82+6.5%
1-0
12.7%@ 9.19+7.9%
0-0
11.5%@ 9.25+6.8%
2-0
9.5%@ 16.01+6.8%
2-1
8.7%@ 10.16+4.4%
0-1
8.1%@ 7.03+1.8%
1-2
5.8%@ 7.85+0.2%
3-0
4.3%@ 37.71+3.2%
Olimpija Ljubljana goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.1%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.5%
8.7%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.3%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Olimpija Ljubljana is 1.00 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Olimpija Ljubljana is 1.43 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Olimpija Ljubljana and Maribor are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olimpija Ljubljana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maribor
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
24.9
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.9%
@ 2.02+8.2%
Under 9.5
46.1%
@ 1.70-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.36
0.07
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.42
1.12
0.00
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.27
1.67
0.17
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.58
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.31
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.84
1.12
0.88
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.36
0.83
0.17
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.4%
1.31
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco43%
Peter Agba17%
Ivan Durdov14%
Marko Brest12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reda Boultam50%
David Sualehe38%
Peter Agba33%
Jorge Silva29%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Manuel Pedreno20%
Thalisson20%
Justas Lasickas17%
Raul Florucz17%
Agustín Doffo14%
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Matevž Vidovšek12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Dino Kojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raul Florucz33%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Agustín Doffo14%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Álex Blanco0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Dino Kojić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Antonio Marin0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Marko Brest0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Olimpija Ljubljana's squad is €2m more valuable than Maribor's (€12m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's attack is €1m more valuable than Maribor's (€6m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Olimpija Ljubljana and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Olimpija Ljubljana's defence is €2m more valuable than Maribor's (€5m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Koper
Celje
Bravo
Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje