This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.87
1.67
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.69
0.75
2.12
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.14
1.00
1.14
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.6%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.1%
Oliveirense goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
1
9.9%
15%
7.9%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.1%
7.2%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.6%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oliveirense goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Oliveirense is 0.65 points worse than Chaves in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Oliveirense is 0.29 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Oliveirense is 0.88 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Oliveirense is 4.1 percentage points worse than Chaves in terms of average possession (51% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oliveirense
For 6.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oliveirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.1
5.0
4.7
5.4
27.9
27.4
28.5
vs Stronger (18)
11.4
11.1
11.7
4.9
3.9
5.9
25.3
25.8
24.9
vs Similar (32)
11.0
11.4
10.8
5.1
5.1
5.1
29.5
28.4
30.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
68%
68%
74%
64%
84%
87%
80%
95%
% under line
32%
32%
32%
26%
36%
16%
13%
20%
5%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.7
11.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
27.0
27.5
26.6
vs Stronger (27)
10.2
9.2
11.3
5.0
5.2
4.9
26.5
28.3
24.9
vs Similar (23)
10.2
7.8
12.1
4.0
3.5
4.6
27.9
26.3
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
41%
72%
68%
64%
72%
92%
94%
89%
% under line
43%
59%
28%
32%
36%
28%
8%
6%
11%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.4
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
11.1
Portimonense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
União de Leiria
10.5
Torreense
10.4
Chaves
10.3
FC Porto B
10.3
Mafra
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.2
Benfica B
10.1
Vizela
10.0
Leixoes
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Maritimo
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Alverca
9.0
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Maritimo
6.0
Chaves
5.8
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Leixoes
5.4
Benfica B
5.4
Vizela
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Tondela
5.0
União de Leiria
5.0
FC Porto B
5.0
Torreense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.9
Feirense
4.8
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
30.1
Leixoes
28.8
Maritimo
28.7
Chaves
28.2
Oliveirense
28.1
Vizela
27.5
Portimonense
27.1
Penafiel
26.7
Tondela
26.5
Torreense
25.6
Benfica B
25.5
União de Leiria
25.0
Feirense
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Mafra
24.5
Academico Viseu
24.3
FC Porto B
24.0
Felgueiras 1932
18.0
Alverca
15.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
67.5%
Under 9.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.0%
Under 3.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.1%
Under 21.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.43
0.71
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
1.50
1.00
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.77
0.25
0.67
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.12
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.94
0.38
1.12
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oliveirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mesaque Dju40%
Simão Martins33%
Kotaro Nagata25%
André Santos17%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Mario Junior0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diogo Casimiro50%
Mauro Caballero33%
Filipe Alves33%
Joanderson33%
Simão Martins33%
Sabino25%
Joao Silva25%
Kotaro Nagata25%
Mario Junior20%
André Santos17%
Nuno Namora17%
Klebinho0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Zé Manuel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luís Bastos0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Monteiro33%
Sabino25%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Monteiro33%
Mesaque Dju20%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Oliveirense's squad is €8m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's attack is €3m less valuable than Chaves's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's midfield is €2m less valuable than Chaves's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Oliveirense's defence is €3m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses