Oliveirense vs Felgueiras 1932 Result & Analysis

The clash between Oliveirense and Felgueiras 1932 is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37 %. A draw sits at 30 % and an away victory at 33 %. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3 % chance. Oliveirense, playing at home against a similarly-strong opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded, while Felgueiras 1932, on the road, nets 1.0 and concedes 1.08 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.2 %, Over 2.5 cards at 94.7 % (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 89.3 %, Over 3.5 cards at 86.7 % (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 85.9 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 79.8 %, Under 10.5 corners at 77.6 %, and Under 3.5 at 77.1 % (miss). The match remains finely balanced, with each side’s recent form hinting at a possible upset.

The upset was stark: Oliveirense, the pre-match favourite with a 37 % chance of victory, fell to a 1-5 defeat, a result that broke their recent run of mixed results. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-5 confirmed the away win, a reversal of the 33 % away win probability. The model’s selections were all missed: Over 2.5 cards at 94.7 % missed, Over 3.5 cards at 86.7 % missed, and Under 3.5 at 77.1 % missed. Oliveirense’s home form had been uneven, while Felgueiras 1932, unbeaten in five, proved the stronger side.