This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.38
1.19
1.64
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.29
0.75
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.05
1.58
1.25
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.4%
0-2
10.9%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
1-0
6.1%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
Oliveirense goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
12%
11%
5.8%
2.3%
1
6.1%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
3.2%
5.1%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
3
0.9%
1.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oliveirense goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Oliveirense is 0.47 points worse than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Oliveirense is 0.44 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Oliveirense is 0.50 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Oliveirense is 4.3 percentage points better than Penafiel in terms of average possession (51% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oliveirense
For 6.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.4 · Against 7.6 · Total 13.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 3.7 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 7.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oliveirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.1
4.4
4.0
4.8
23.7
24.6
22.8
vs Stronger (18)
12.0
11.6
12.3
4.3
3.8
4.8
23.6
26.2
21.7
vs Similar (32)
10.7
11.1
10.3
4.4
4.1
4.7
23.7
24.0
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
64%
67%
66%
56%
76%
74%
71%
78%
% under line
34%
36%
33%
34%
44%
24%
26%
29%
22%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.6
4.0
3.7
4.3
22.6
22.3
23.1
vs Stronger (12)
8.3
9.3
7.5
4.2
3.5
4.8
20.2
19.4
20.8
vs Similar (37)
10.7
10.8
10.5
4.1
3.8
4.4
23.6
23.1
24.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
56%
43%
64%
58%
71%
65%
59%
72%
% under line
50%
44%
57%
36%
42%
29%
35%
41%
28%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oliveirense
11.3
Portimonense
10.9
Tondela
10.8
Feirense
10.6
FC Porto B
10.5
Torreense
10.4
Penafiel
10.3
União de Leiria
10.2
Benfica B
10.2
Chaves
10.1
Pacos Ferreira
10.1
Mafra
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Vizela
9.9
Leixoes
9.7
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.9
Maritimo
5.8
Benfica B
5.6
Chaves
5.6
Penafiel
5.5
Leixoes
5.4
Oliveirense
5.4
Portimonense
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
União de Leiria
5.1
Vizela
5.1
Tondela
5.0
FC Porto B
4.8
Feirense
4.5
Mafra
4.3
Academico Viseu
4.2
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leixoes
26.5
Pacos Ferreira
25.9
Vizela
25.2
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Oliveirense
24.5
Feirense
24.5
Tondela
24.4
Maritimo
24.2
Chaves
24.0
Penafiel
23.3
Portimonense
23.1
União de Leiria
22.1
Mafra
22.0
Torreense
21.9
Benfica B
21.9
Academico Viseu
21.7
FC Porto B
21.6
Alverca
9.0
Felgueiras 1932
7.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.0%
Under 9.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
6.3%
Under 21.5
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.10
0.40
1.00
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.67
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.95
0.25
0.83
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.81
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.59
0.75
0.83
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.75
0.38
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.45
0.83
0.42
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oliveirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mesaque Dju40%
Simão Martins33%
Kotaro Nagata25%
André Santos17%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Mario Junior0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diogo Casimiro50%
Mauro Caballero33%
Filipe Alves33%
Joanderson33%
Simão Martins33%
Sabino25%
Joao Silva25%
Kotaro Nagata25%
Mario Junior20%
André Santos17%
Nuno Namora17%
Klebinho0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Zé Manuel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luís Bastos0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Monteiro33%
Sabino25%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Monteiro33%
Mesaque Dju20%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Oliveirense's squad is €4m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's attack is €1m less valuable than Penafiel's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense and Penafiel have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Oliveirense's defence is €2m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses