This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
0.79
1.07
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.41
0.60
1.10
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1 ✓
8.4%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
8.1%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
7.8%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
Oliveirense goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.8%
6.0%
2.6%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.4%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.8%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oliveirense goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Oliveirense is 0.21 points worse than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Torreense
1.35
Leixoes
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
Oliveirense is 0.09 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Chaves
1.18
Feirense
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
Oliveirense is 0.29 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Oliveirense is 0.1 percentage points worse than Penafiel in terms of average possession (49% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oliveirense
For 3.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 15.9 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 6.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oliveirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.0
12.4
4.1
4.6
3.7
17.6
19.3
15.6
vs Stronger (19)
12.3
11.0
15.0
3.5
4.6
2.2
15.1
21.7
10.2
vs Similar (31)
9.8
8.2
11.8
4.5
4.6
4.5
18.6
18.6
18.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
57%
80%
52%
58%
46%
52%
58%
45%
% under line
33%
43%
20%
48%
42%
54%
48%
42%
55%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
11.7
13.4
3.4
3.0
3.7
15.1
15.8
14.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.0
10.0
-
3.5
4.4
2.7
14.4
23.5
2.3
vs Similar (37)
13.4
13.3
13.4
3.5
2.7
4.4
15.4
12.0
18.1
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
82%
67%
100%
44%
33%
54%
44%
50%
38%
% under line
18%
33%
0%
56%
67%
46%
56%
50%
62%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
12.5
FC Porto B
11.8
Portimonense
11.6
Benfica B
11.2
Farense
10.9
Vizela
10.8
União de Leiria
10.7
Chaves
10.7
Academico Viseu
10.7
Oliveirense
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.0
Torreense
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Feirense
9.2
Pacos Ferreira
9.0
Maritimo
8.8
Leixoes
8.8
Sporting CP B
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.8
Sporting CP B
6.6
Pacos Ferreira
6.4
Felgueiras 1932
6.4
Chaves
6.2
Leixoes
6.2
Oliveirense
6.1
Vizela
6.0
Farense
5.8
FC Porto B
5.7
Torreense
5.7
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.6
Academico Viseu
5.6
Feirense
5.6
Maritimo
5.6
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.6
Farense
29.6
Sporting CP B
26.2
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
20.1
Pacos Ferreira
18.4
União de Leiria
18.2
Academico Viseu
17.8
Oliveirense
17.4
Maritimo
15.8
Feirense
15.4
Portimonense
15.3
Vizela
14.8
Felgueiras 1932
14.4
FC Porto B
14.0
Penafiel
13.8
Chaves
13.0
Torreense
12.4
Benfica B
8.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.0%
Under 9.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
91.0%
Under 3.5
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.4%
Under 21.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.19
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.38
0.83
0.17
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.47
0.62
0.50
0.11
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.43
0.79
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.73
0.30
0.80
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.13
0.64
1.07
0.56
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.08
0.50
0.50
0.14
1.57
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.18
0.75
1.50
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.68
0.30
0.30
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oliveirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armando Lopes22%
Bruno Silva18%
Luís Bastos17%
Bura11%
Manga Foe Ondoa10%
Pedro Martelo9%
Joao Silva9%
Sabino0%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Joanderson0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Nuno Namora0%
Amadou Diallo0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Vasco Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Silva67%
Joao Silva55%
Sabino45%
Tiago Brito40%
Manga Foe Ondoa30%
Vasco Santos29%
Simão Martins20%
João Adriano20%
Ricardo Ribeiro18%
Pedro Martelo18%
Luís Bastos17%
Diogo Pereira11%
Armando Lopes11%
Nuno Namora9%
Douglas Borel0%
Bura0%
Joanderson0%
Bruno Silva0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Amadou Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lucas Henrique17%
Armando Lopes11%
Pedro Martelo9%
Nuno Namora9%
Sabino0%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Bura0%
Joanderson0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Luís Bastos0%
Amadou Diallo0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Vasco Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joao Silva27%
Amadou Diallo17%
Bura11%
Manga Foe Ondoa10%
Sabino9%
Pedro Martelo9%
Bruno Silva9%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Joanderson0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Luís Bastos0%
Nuno Namora0%
Armando Lopes0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Vasco Santos0%
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Oliveirense's squad is €4m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's attack is €1m less valuable than Penafiel's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense and Penafiel have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Oliveirense's defence is €2m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
FC Porto B
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Chaves
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
CF Os Belenenses