Oliveirense and Penafiel face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Oliveirense, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.89 conceded, while Penafiel, on the road, nets 0.9 and concedes 1.4 against comparable teams. The probabilities for the match outcome are 39% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 98.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Under 5.5 at 96.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.0%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 94.4%. Oliveirense come off a win and Penafiel are on a two-game winning streak, adding extra intrigue to a match that could swing either way.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oliveirense win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penafiel win
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oliveirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.71
1.71
0.56
1.25
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.58
1.50
1.75
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.47
1.56
1.89
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
1.20
0.80
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
1.70
0.90
1.60
0.40
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
Oliveirense goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.6%
8.4%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oliveirense goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lusitano Évora 1911
2.40
Amarante
2.33
Espinho
2.33
Fafe
2.29
Farense
2.25
Trofense
2.00
Pacos Ferreira
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Ovarense
2.00
Caldas
2.00
O Elvas
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
AVS
2.00
Tondela
2.00
Mortágua
1.75
1º Dezembro
1.75
Leixoes
1.67
Vila Meã
1.60
Machico
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Atlético Malveira
1.50
Rebordosa
1.50
Correlhã
1.50
Nazarenos
1.50
Felgueiras 1932
1.50
União Lamas
1.50
São João Ver
1.50
Uniao Nogueirense
1.50
Castrense
1.50
Naval 1893
1.50
Brito
1.50
Ançã
1.50
AD Fornos Algodres
1.50
Bragança
1.50
Salgueiros
1.50
Chaves
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.33
Vianense
1.33
Celoricense
1.33
SC Covilha
1.33
Os Marialvas
1.00
Penafiel
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Oliveira Hospital
1.00
Camacha
1.00
Cinfães
1.00
Castro Daire
1.00
Amora
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Mafra
1.00
Academica
1.00
AD Nogueirense
1.00
Santo Antonio
1.00
Maia Lidador
1.00
São Roque (Açores)
1.00
Imortal Albufeira
1.00
Penalva Castelo
1.00
Messejanense
1.00
União Montemor
1.00
Recreativa de Lamelas
1.00
Vitoria Setubal
1.00
Olhanense
1.00
Uniao de Pombal
1.00
Ponte da Barca
1.00
Sousense
1.00
Guarda
1.00
Pevidem
1.00
O Grandolense
1.00
Alcains
1.00
Sertanense
1.00
Ermesinde
1.00
CF Benfica
1.00
Bombarralense
1.00
Real
1.00
Vila Pouca
1.00
Pacos de Brandao
1.00
Minas de Argozelo
1.00
Régua
1.00
Ginásio Figueirense
1.00
Atlético Arcos
1.00
Aljustrelense
1.00
Madalena
1.00
Mação
1.00
Gavionenses
1.00
Ferreiras
1.00
Merelinense
1.00
SC Barreiro
1.00
Mocarriense
1.00
AD Marco 09
0.67
Rebordelo
0.50
Vizela
0.00
Maria da Fonte
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Portalegrense
0.00
Florgrade
0.00
Sanjoanense
0.00
Vitória de Sernache
0.00
Lagoa
0.00
Tirsense
0.00
Os Limianos
0.00
Leça
0.00
Lajense
0.00
União Santarém
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Varzim
0.00
Paredes
0.00
Angrense
0.00
Sourense
0.00
Alcochetense
0.00
Portel
0.00
Fayal
0.00
Estrela Calheta
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Juventude Évora
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Fazendense
0.00
Oliveirense is 1.00 points better than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sacavenense
4.50
Ovarense
4.50
Benfica Castelo Branco
4.00
Trofense
3.50
Atlético Malveira
3.50
Alpendorada
3.33
Louletano
3.00
São João Ver
3.00
Salgueiros
3.00
Lusitano Évora 1911
2.80
Bragança
2.50
Farense
2.50
AVS
2.50
Tondela
2.50
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.33
Vianense
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Felgueiras 1932
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Espinho
2.00
1º Dezembro
2.00
Amarante
1.67
Sintrense
1.67
Caldas
1.60
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Correlhã
1.50
O Elvas
1.50
Rebordelo
1.50
Naval 1893
1.50
Ançã
1.50
AD Fornos Algodres
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Vila Meã
1.40
AD Nogueirense
1.20
Santo Antonio
1.20
Maia Lidador
1.20
São Roque (Açores)
1.20
Imortal Albufeira
1.20
Penalva Castelo
1.20
Messejanense
1.20
União Montemor
1.20
Recreativa de Lamelas
1.20
Vitoria Setubal
1.20
Olhanense
1.20
Uniao de Pombal
1.20
Ponte da Barca
1.20
Sousense
1.20
Guarda
1.20
Pevidem
1.20
O Grandolense
1.20
Alcains
1.20
Sertanense
1.20
Ermesinde
1.20
CF Benfica
1.20
Bombarralense
1.20
Real
1.20
Vila Pouca
1.20
Pacos de Brandao
1.20
Minas de Argozelo
1.20
Régua
1.20
Ginásio Figueirense
1.20
Atlético Arcos
1.20
Aljustrelense
1.20
Madalena
1.20
Mação
1.20
Gavionenses
1.20
Ferreiras
1.20
Merelinense
1.20
SC Barreiro
1.20
Mocarriense
1.20
Fafe
1.14
Leixoes
1.00
Vizela
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Penafiel
1.00
Machico
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
Vitória de Sernache
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Atlético CP
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Tirsense
1.00
Castro Daire
1.00
Varzim
1.00
Mortágua
1.00
Brito
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Angrense
1.00
Alcochetense
1.00
Estrela Calheta
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
SC Covilha
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Fazendense
1.00
Nazarenos
0.50
Lajense
0.50
Uniao Nogueirense
0.50
Castrense
0.50
Celoricense
0.33
Os Marialvas
0.00
AD Marco 09
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Portalegrense
0.00
Florgrade
0.00
Sanjoanense
0.00
Os Limianos
0.00
Cinfães
0.00
Leça
0.00
União Santarém
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Paredes
0.00
Amora
0.00
Sourense
0.00
Portel
0.00
Fayal
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Mafra
0.00
Juventude Évora
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Academica
0.00
Oliveirense is 1.00 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Os Marialvas
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Cinfães
0.00
O Elvas
0.00
Amora
0.00
Mafra
0.00
Academica
0.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.33
Espinho
0.33
FC Serpa
0.50
Rebordosa
0.50
Nazarenos
0.50
Louletano
0.50
Uniao Nogueirense
0.50
Naval 1893
0.50
Bragança
0.50
AVS
0.50
Tondela
0.50
Vila Meã
0.60
Lusitano Évora 1911
0.60
Caldas
0.60
Amarante
0.67
Leixoes
0.67
CF Os Belenenses
0.67
Atlético CP
0.67
Fafe
0.71
Farense
0.75
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Penafiel
1.00
Atlético Malveira
1.00
Sacavenense
1.00
Florgrade
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Castro Daire
1.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Sourense
1.00
Juventude Évora
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Mortágua
1.25
Celoricense
1.33
SC Covilha
1.33
Trofense
1.50
Machico
1.50
Correlhã
1.50
Ovarense
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Alpendorada
1.67
AD Nogueirense
1.86
Santo Antonio
1.86
Maia Lidador
1.86
São Roque (Açores)
1.86
Imortal Albufeira
1.86
Penalva Castelo
1.86
Messejanense
1.86
União Montemor
1.86
Recreativa de Lamelas
1.86
Vitoria Setubal
1.86
Olhanense
1.86
Uniao de Pombal
1.86
Ponte da Barca
1.86
Sousense
1.86
Guarda
1.86
Pevidem
1.86
O Grandolense
1.86
Alcains
1.86
Sertanense
1.86
Ermesinde
1.86
CF Benfica
1.86
Bombarralense
1.86
Real
1.86
Vila Pouca
1.86
Pacos de Brandao
1.86
Minas de Argozelo
1.86
Régua
1.86
Ginásio Figueirense
1.86
Atlético Arcos
1.86
Aljustrelense
1.86
Madalena
1.86
Mação
1.86
Gavionenses
1.86
Ferreiras
1.86
Merelinense
1.86
SC Barreiro
1.86
Mocarriense
1.86
Vizela
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
Vitória de Sernache
2.00
Lagoa
2.00
Tirsense
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Leça
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Ançã
2.00
Alcochetense
2.00
1º Dezembro
2.00
UD da Serra
2.00
Fazendense
2.00
São João Ver
2.50
Castrense
2.50
Rebordelo
2.50
Fátima
3.00
Académico do Fundão
3.00
Portalegrense
3.00
Viana Alentejo
3.00
Brito
3.00
Portel
3.00
Vinhais
3.00
Salgueiros
3.00
Sanjoanense
4.00
Os Limianos
4.00
Lajense
4.00
AD Fornos Algodres
4.00
Varzim
5.00
Fayal
5.00
Angrense
7.00
Estrela Calheta
7.00
Oliveirense and Penafiel are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
38%
Farense
36%
AVS
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oliveirense
For 3.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 16.1 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oliveirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
7.6
11.3
4.4
4.8
4.0
23.9
25.0
23.0
vs Stronger (20)
10.2
8.3
13.0
3.5
4.5
2.5
20.9
24.8
17.0
vs Similar (29)
9.5
7.0
10.9
5.2
5.5
5.0
25.7
25.2
26.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
43%
78%
54%
58%
50%
71%
78%
67%
% under line
38%
57%
22%
46%
42%
50%
29%
22%
33%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
9.9
13.7
4.5
4.0
4.8
22.9
24.6
21.2
vs Stronger (13)
9.2
9.0
10.0
4.6
4.5
4.7
23.9
28.4
12.5
vs Similar (35)
13.2
11.3
14.4
4.7
4.1
5.2
22.3
19.8
23.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
79%
62%
100%
56%
42%
69%
61%
67%
56%
% under line
21%
38%
0%
44%
58%
31%
39%
33%
44%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Farense
10.9
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
Oliveirense
9.7
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.6
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Mafra
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
Feirense
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Pacos Ferreira
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Farense
5.7
Oliveirense
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
Mafra
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Farense
31.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
SC Covilha
28.2
Pacos Ferreira
26.8
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.5
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
Oliveirense
23.0
Penafiel
22.9
Portimonense
21.8
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
20.0
Mafra
14.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
77.7%
Under 9.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.6%
Under 21.5
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Oliveirense or Draw
69.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
30%
30%
covers Oliveirense + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense or Penafiel
69.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
30%
30%
covers Oliveirense + Penafiel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Penafiel
60.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + Penafiel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Oliveirense, so a minus line means Oliveirense give that many goals of a start and Penafiel receive them. At -1, Oliveirense must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Oliveirense win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Oliveirense)
Oliveirense -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.9%
Penafiel +2
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Oliveirense)
Oliveirense -1
18.4%
Draw -1
21.2%
Penafiel +1
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Oliveirense)
Oliveirense +1
69.8%
Draw +1
17.8%
Penafiel -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Oliveirense)
Oliveirense +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.6%
Penafiel -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.86
0.57
0.19
0.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.38
0.38
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.78
0.56
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.20
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.40
0.50
0.30
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.86
1.14
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.12
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.06
0.78
1.33
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.70
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oliveirense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armando Lopes22%
Bruno Silva18%
Luís Bastos17%
Bura11%
Manga Foe Ondoa10%
Pedro Martelo9%
Joao Silva9%
Sabino0%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Joanderson0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Nuno Namora0%
Amadou Diallo0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Vasco Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Silva67%
Joao Silva55%
Sabino45%
Tiago Brito40%
Manga Foe Ondoa30%
Vasco Santos29%
Simão Martins20%
João Adriano20%
Ricardo Ribeiro18%
Pedro Martelo18%
Luís Bastos17%
Diogo Pereira11%
Armando Lopes11%
Nuno Namora9%
Douglas Borel0%
Bura0%
Joanderson0%
Bruno Silva0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Amadou Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lucas Henrique17%
Armando Lopes11%
Pedro Martelo9%
Nuno Namora9%
Sabino0%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Bura0%
Joanderson0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Luís Bastos0%
Amadou Diallo0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Vasco Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joao Silva27%
Amadou Diallo17%
Bura11%
Manga Foe Ondoa10%
Sabino9%
Pedro Martelo9%
Bruno Silva9%
Douglas Borel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Joanderson0%
Diogo Pereira0%
Simão Martins0%
Lucas Henrique0%
Luís Bastos0%
Nuno Namora0%
Armando Lopes0%
João Adriano0%
Tiago Brito0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Vasco Santos0%
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
Oliveirense's squad is €4m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VIZ (13)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's attack is €1m less valuable than Penafiel's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHA (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense and Penafiel have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Oliveirense's defence is €2m less valuable than Penafiel's (€1m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves