This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.97
1.13
2.00
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
1.17
2.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.67
1.11
1.67
1.58
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
9.7%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
7.4%
0-2 ✓
7.3%
2-0
5.6%
Oliveirense goals ↓
Portimonense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.7%
7.3%
3.2%
1.1%
1
8.4%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.6%
7.4%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.2%
2.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oliveirense goals (down), columns = Portimonense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Oliveirense is 0.15 points worse than Portimonense in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Oliveirense is 0.24 goals worse than Portimonense in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Oliveirense is 0.29 goals worse than Portimonense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Oliveirense is 11.8 percentage points better than Portimonense in terms of average possession (51% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oliveirense
For 6.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
For 6.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oliveirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.2
11.2
4.8
4.5
5.1
26.8
26.9
26.6
vs Stronger (17)
11.4
11.0
11.7
4.9
3.8
5.9
24.6
24.4
24.9
vs Similar (33)
11.1
11.4
10.8
4.7
4.8
4.6
28.0
28.4
27.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
67%
67%
70%
60%
80%
84%
79%
89%
% under line
33%
33%
33%
30%
40%
20%
16%
21%
11%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.9
10.8
4.4
4.3
4.5
26.1
25.8
26.5
vs Stronger (19)
11.3
11.5
11.1
3.8
3.4
4.2
25.6
26.8
24.4
vs Similar (31)
10.5
10.5
10.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
26.5
25.1
27.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
72%
55%
66%
64%
68%
85%
85%
85%
% under line
37%
28%
45%
34%
36%
32%
15%
15%
15%
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Feirense
11.3
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
11.0
Portimonense
10.7
Penafiel
10.6
FC Porto B
10.4
Torreense
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Chaves
10.2
Academico Viseu
10.1
Mafra
10.1
Benfica B
10.1
Leixoes
9.9
Vizela
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
5.9
Chaves
5.8
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Portimonense
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Penafiel
5.3
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Vizela
5.1
Tondela
5.1
FC Porto B
5.0
Torreense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.8
Feirense
4.8
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
29.6
Leixoes
28.7
Maritimo
27.9
Oliveirense
27.3
Chaves
27.2
Vizela
26.4
Portimonense
26.3
Penafiel
26.2
Tondela
25.8
Torreense
25.4
União de Leiria
25.4
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Benfica B
24.8
Feirense
24.7
Mafra
24.1
FC Porto B
24.1
Academico Viseu
23.7
Alverca
14.5
Felgueiras 1932
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.1%
Under 9.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.2%
Under 3.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.4%
Under 21.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.43
0.64
0.44
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
1.50
1.00
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.77
0.25
0.58
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.17
1.17
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oliveirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.36
0.71
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.73
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Portimonense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.27
0.67
1.20
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.78
1.00
1.33
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
0.81
1.05
0.44
1.11
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Oliveirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oliveirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oliveirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oliveirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mesaque Dju40%
Simão Martins33%
Kotaro Nagata25%
André Santos17%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Mario Junior0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diogo Casimiro50%
Mauro Caballero33%
Filipe Alves33%
Joanderson33%
Simão Martins33%
Sabino25%
Joao Silva25%
Kotaro Nagata25%
Mario Junior20%
André Santos17%
Nuno Namora17%
Klebinho0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
Zé Manuel0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Luís Bastos0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Miguel Monteiro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Monteiro33%
Sabino25%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
Mesaque Dju0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Monteiro33%
Mesaque Dju20%
Luís Bastos17%
Zé Manuel14%
Sabino0%
Klebinho0%
Mauro Caballero0%
Hirotaka Mita0%
Nuno Macedo0%
André Santos0%
Ricardo Ribeiro0%
Diogo Casimiro0%
Filipe Alves0%
Joanderson0%
André Rodrigues0%
Bruno Silva0%
Simão Martins0%
Joao Silva0%
Nuno Namora0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Kotaro Nagata0%
Mario Junior0%
Portimonense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paulo Vitor25%
Camilo Duran25%
Vinicius Silvestre0%
Heitor0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Mohamed Diaby0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Jefferson Maciel0%
Alemão0%
Elijah Benedict0%
Ruan0%
Danio Djassi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Heitor33%
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Alemão25%
Ruan25%
Vinicius Silvestre0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Mohamed Diaby0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Jefferson Maciel0%
Elijah Benedict0%
Danio Djassi0%
Camilo Duran0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jefferson Maciel33%
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Vinicius Silvestre0%
Heitor0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Mohamed Diaby0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Alemão0%
Elijah Benedict0%
Ruan0%
Danio Djassi0%
Camilo Duran0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Heitor33%
Paulo Vitor25%
Camilo Duran25%
Vinicius Silvestre0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Mohamed Diaby0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Jefferson Maciel0%
Alemão0%
Elijah Benedict0%
Ruan0%
Danio Djassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Oliveirense's squad is €5m less valuable than Portimonense's (€1m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's attack is €2m less valuable than Portimonense's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Oliveirense's midfield is €1m less valuable than Portimonense's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Oliveirense's defence is €1m less valuable than Portimonense's (€1m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses