Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC Result & Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus are the clear favorites, with a 60% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 15% for AEK Athens FC to win. The model projects an average of 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for the home side, a 13.9% chance. Olympiakos, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, typically scores 1.33 goals and concedes 0.33, while AEK, on the road, averages 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (99.2%), Over 21.5 fouls (97.8%), Over 23.5 fouls (94.6%), Over 25.5 fouls (89.0%), Under 3.5 (77.3%), Under 11.5 corners (73.7%) and Under 5.5 cards (71.1%). The model also lists Over 2.5 cards (82.1%) with an edge. This concise preview outlines the expected shape of the match, the key probabilities, and the model’s selections.

The upset came as Olympiakos Piraeus, the pre-match favourite with a 60% chance of victory, could not secure the win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely scoreline of 1-0, 2-0 or 1-1, but the outcome was a draw, not a home win. Olympiakos had been on a two-game winning run, while AEK Athens had remained unbeaten in five matches. The model’s selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 99.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.6%, Over 25.5 fouls at 89.0%, Under 3.5 at 77.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 73.7%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.1%. Only the Over 2.5 cards pick missed, coming in at 82.1%.