Pythia gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 54% win probability against Panathinaikos in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-13, with 28% for the draw and 18% for Panathinaikos. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (13.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Over 2.5 cards (87%), Under 11.5 corners (86%).
Results analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus finished 1-0 against Panathinaikos (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 28% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 21.5 fouls (89%), Over 2.5 cards (87%), Under 11.5 corners (86%), Over 23.5 fouls (79%), Under 3.5 (79%), Under 10.5 corners (78%). Missed: Over 3.5 cards (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied 66.2% · @ 1.38
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 21.7% · @ 4.21
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied 12.0% · @ 7.59
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.60
1.33
0.73
1.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
4.00
3.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.50
0.42
1.27
0.36
1.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.75
0.88
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.54
1.17
1.00
0.43
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.64
2.50
0.62
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 1.92-7.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.80+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.9%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
10.9%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.4%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.7%
Olympiakos Piraeus goals ↓
Panathinaikos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.4%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.0%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos Piraeus goals (down), columns = Panathinaikos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.41 points better than Panathinaikos in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.12 goals better than Panathinaikos in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Olympiakos Piraeus is 0.50 goals better than Panathinaikos in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Olympiakos Piraeus is 7.8 percentage points better than Panathinaikos in terms of average possession (60% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus
For 5.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Panathinaikos
For 3.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olympiakos Piraeus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.7
7.7
4.3
3.9
4.8
25.1
23.8
26.5
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (6)
8.5
8.3
8.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
19.7
18.0
21.3
vs Weaker (42)
8.8
10.0
7.5
4.6
4.1
5.0
26.2
24.8
27.8
% over line
36%
46%
25%
56%
46%
67%
68%
65%
71%
% under line
64%
54%
75%
44%
54%
33%
32%
35%
29%
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.8
7.6
5.3
5.6
5.1
28.5
28.3
28.6
vs Stronger (9)
7.6
8.2
6.7
5.7
5.0
6.5
27.3
28.2
26.0
vs Similar (17)
8.8
9.1
8.6
5.7
7.4
4.2
27.5
28.5
26.6
vs Weaker (24)
8.0
8.8
7.1
5.0
4.6
5.3
29.5
28.2
30.8
% over line
33%
46%
21%
76%
76%
76%
88%
92%
83%
% under line
67%
54%
79%
24%
24%
24%
12%
8%
17%
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.6
Aris Thessalonikis
9.5
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.2
OFI Crete
9.2
Atromitos
9.0
AEK Athens FC
8.8
Volos NFC
8.7
Panserraikos
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.7
Levadiakos
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
Larisa
8.6
PAOK
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.7
Larisa
6.1
Panserraikos
6.0
Volos NFC
5.7
Asteras Tripolis
5.7
OFI
5.6
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Levadiakos
5.1
Atromitos
5.0
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.6
Larisa
32.4
Volos NFC
30.8
Atromitos
30.7
Levadiakos
29.9
AEK Athens FC
29.7
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.5
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.7
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.3
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
32.3%
Under 9.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.5%
Under 3.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.0%
Under 21.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos Piraeus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.17
0.73
0.27
0.69
0.08
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Panathinaikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panathinaikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.81
0.56
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.62
0.33
0.67
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.29
1.38
0.38
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panathinaikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
Olympiakos Piraeus's squad is €45m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€134m vs €89m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
Olympiakos Piraeus's attack is €16m less valuable than Panathinaikos's (€28m vs €44m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
Olympiakos Piraeus's midfield is €24m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€48m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
Olympiakos Piraeus's defence is €36m more valuable than Panathinaikos's (€59m vs €22m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →