Pythia gives Olympiakos a 32% win probability against Anorthosis in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-15, with 34% for the draw and 35% for Anorthosis. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 21.5 fouls (90%), Under 11.5 corners (87%), Under 3.5 (86%).
Results analysis
Olympiakos finished 1-0 against Anorthosis (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 32% home win, 34% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (86%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Olympiakos win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Olympiakos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
0.86
1.36
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.17
0.83
1.83
0.83
2.50
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
0.86
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.23
1.56
1.19
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.50
0.80
1.80
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
1.57
0.86
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.33
2.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.5%
Under 1.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.1%
Under 2.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.1%
No
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.0%
1-1
14.9%
0-1
12.7%
1-0 ✓
11.8%
0-2
7.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
Olympiakos goals ↓
Anorthosis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.2%
2.5%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
6.4%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Olympiakos goals (down), columns = Anorthosis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Akritas
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
0.15
Olympiakos is 0.15 points worse than Anorthosis in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Akritas
0.94
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Enosis
0.33
Olympiakos is 0.09 goals worse than Anorthosis in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Aris
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.33
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
AEL
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Akritas
1.76
Enosis
2.42
Olympiakos is 0.12 goals worse than Anorthosis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Ethnikos Achna
48%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Akritas
44%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Enosis
41%
Olympiakos is 4.3 percentage points better than Anorthosis in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Olympiakos
For 3.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Anorthosis
For 4.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 17.4 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olympiakos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.8
4.0
7.7
0.6
0.1
1.0
29.4
31.0
28.8
vs Stronger (14)
6.7
3.0
8.5
0.6
0.3
0.9
26.0
27.0
25.5
vs Similar (31)
7.0
5.0
7.7
0.5
0.1
0.9
32.0
35.0
31.0
vs Weaker (5)
6.0
-
6.0
1.4
0.0
2.3
29.0
-
29.0
% over line
12%
0%
17%
6%
0%
12%
88%
100%
83%
% under line
88%
100%
83%
94%
100%
88%
12%
0%
17%
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.0
1.9
2.6
1.1
29.5
29.6
29.3
vs Stronger (15)
8.6
8.4
9.0
1.9
2.3
1.2
28.0
30.2
22.5
vs Similar (25)
9.3
9.8
8.3
1.8
2.6
1.2
34.0
34.0
34.0
vs Weaker (10)
9.7
9.4
11.0
2.2
3.2
0.8
24.7
23.8
29.0
% over line
45%
44%
50%
28%
37%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
55%
56%
50%
72%
63%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.9
Aris
9.7
Krasava Ypsonas
9.6
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Akritas
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.1
Enosis
9.0
Anorthosis
8.7
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.8
AEL
4.8
Pafos
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
Olympiakos
4.4
Akritas
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Enosis
28.2
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.3
Ethnikos Achna
27.2
Aris
26.2
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Pafos
25.6
Krasava Ypsonas
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.5
Apollon Limassol
24.5
Akritas
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
31.3%
Under 9.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.1%
Under 3.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
89.5%
Under 21.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Olympiakos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.43
0.36
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
0.83
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.33
0.57
0.00
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.56
0.69
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.83
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Olympiakos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Olympiakos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.43
1.00
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.12
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Olympiakos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anorthosis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
Aris
AEL
Omonia Aradippou
Krasava Ypsonas
Akritas
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis