Defensive solidity is the story for this low-scoring fixture. The model projects a 31% chance of a home win, 34% for a draw, and 35% for an away win, making the away win the favourite. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 15.8% probability. Omonia 29is Maiou, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Olympiakos, on the road, averages 1.55 scored and 1.64 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 86.9% probability. The home win probability is 31%, the draw 34%, and the away win 35%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Omonia 29is Maiou snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the pre-match favourite, Olympiakos, who had been tipped to win with a 35% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. Omonia’s unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 3-0 victory over Krasava Ypsonas, proved decisive. Olympiakos, fresh from a 3-3 draw with Nea Salamis, fell short. The model’s sole suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark, with an 86.9% chance. The match’s final score of 1-0 confirmed the home side’s triumph, leaving the predicted away win as a missed outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Omonia 29is Maiou win✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Omonia 29is Maiou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
0.93
0.47
1.40
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.75
0.86
0.50
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.17
1.06
0.94
1.31
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.20
1.14
0.86
1.55
1.64
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia 29is Maiou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.9%
Under 1.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.5%
Under 2.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.6%
No
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.8%
1-1
14.8%
0-1
13.2%
1-0 ✓
12.1%
0-2
7.3%
1-2
6.8%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
Omonia 29is Maiou goals ↓
Olympiakos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
13%
7.3%
2.4%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
6.3%
6.3%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
3
1.9%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Omonia 29is Maiou goals (down), columns = Olympiakos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Aradippou
2.10
Omonia 29is Maiou
2.00
Olympiakos
1.86
Enosis
1.86
Digenis Morphou
1.76
PAEEK
1.59
Krasava Ypsonas
1.52
ASIL Lysi
1.48
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.24
Akritas
1.21
MEAP Nisou
1.14
Peyia
1.10
Ayia Napa
1.03
ENAD
0.90
Ermis
0.69
Xylotympou
0.69
Omonia 29is Maiou is 0.14 points better than Olympiakos in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAEEK
1.62
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.59
Omonia Aradippou
1.59
Enosis
1.52
Olympiakos
1.48
Digenis Morphou
1.41
Krasava Ypsonas
1.34
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Ayia Napa
1.21
Akritas
1.21
Peyia
1.14
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
ENAD
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Ermis
0.97
Xylotympou
0.97
Omonia 29is Maiou is 0.10 goals better than Olympiakos in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Aradippou
0.66
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.72
Olympiakos
0.72
Digenis Morphou
1.00
Ahironas / Onisilos
1.10
Enosis
1.14
Akritas
1.14
PAEEK
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.24
MEAP Nisou
1.31
ENAD
1.41
Peyia
1.52
Ayia Napa
1.79
Xylotympou
1.90
Ermis
2.41
Omonia 29is Maiou and Olympiakos are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Omonia 29is Maiou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.30
0.20
0.27
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.32
0.07
0.29
0.57
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.53
0.41
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.56
0.57
0.43
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia 29is Maiou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Omonia 29is Maiou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.20
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.43
0.79
0.21
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.85
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.64
0.57
0.43
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia 29is Maiou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Omonia 29is Maiou over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Omonia 29is Maiou · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jay Ifeanyi Junior Tyron Enem33%
Facundo Garcia20%
Nikola Trujić17%
Jérémie Bela17%
Michaël Heylen0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Timotheos Pavlou0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Kevin Broll0%
Georgios Strezos0%
Carlos Moros Gracia0%
Cătălin Carp0%
Sylvain Deslandes0%
Alberto Fernández0%
Darly Nlandu0%
Angelos Zefki0%
Giorgos Pontikou0%
Konstantinos Pattichis0%
Sotiris Fiakas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Michaël Heylen33%
Cătălin Carp33%
Alberto Fernández33%
Sotiris Fiakas33%
Angelos Zefki25%
Facundo Garcia20%
Sylvain Deslandes20%
Nikola Trujić17%
Jérémie Bela17%
Christos Wheeler14%
Timotheos Pavlou0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Kevin Broll0%
Georgios Strezos0%
Carlos Moros Gracia0%
Darly Nlandu0%
Giorgos Pontikou0%
Jay Ifeanyi Junior Tyron Enem0%
Konstantinos Pattichis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Ikoko20%
Jérémie Bela17%
Michaël Heylen0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Timotheos Pavlou0%
Kevin Broll0%
Georgios Strezos0%
Nikola Trujić0%
Carlos Moros Gracia0%
Cătălin Carp0%
Facundo Garcia0%
Sylvain Deslandes0%
Alberto Fernández0%
Darly Nlandu0%
Angelos Zefki0%
Giorgos Pontikou0%
Jay Ifeanyi Junior Tyron Enem0%
Konstantinos Pattichis0%
Sotiris Fiakas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Facundo Garcia40%
Nikola Trujić33%
Jérémie Bela33%
Jay Ifeanyi Junior Tyron Enem33%
Michaël Heylen0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Timotheos Pavlou0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Kevin Broll0%
Georgios Strezos0%
Carlos Moros Gracia0%
Cătălin Carp0%
Sylvain Deslandes0%
Alberto Fernández0%
Darly Nlandu0%
Angelos Zefki0%
Giorgos Pontikou0%
Konstantinos Pattichis0%
Sotiris Fiakas0%
Olympiakos · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Kovalenko33%
Admir Bajrović25%
Jean Felipe17%
João Tavares17%
Leonidas Konomis14%
Iasonas Pikis12%
João Mário0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Ektoras Stefanou0%
Stefanos Charalampous0%
Revaz Injgia0%
Orhan Dzepar0%
Henrique Gomes0%
Mauricio0%
Vladimir Bradonjić0%
Vieirinha0%
Marcos Charalambous0%
Christos Talichmanidis0%
Geron Tocka0%
Richie Omorowa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Henrique Gomes33%
Orhan Dzepar29%
João Mário25%
Stefanos Charalampous14%
Mauricio14%
Vieirinha14%
Leonidas Konomis14%
Iasonas Pikis12%
Vladimir Bradonjić12%
Christos Talichmanidis12%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Ektoras Stefanou0%
Revaz Injgia0%
Admir Bajrović0%
Jean Felipe0%
João Tavares0%
Marcos Charalambous0%
Geron Tocka0%
Richie Omorowa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Mário25%
Geron Tocka20%
Jean Felipe17%
Vladimir Bradonjić12%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Iasonas Pikis0%
Ektoras Stefanou0%
Stefanos Charalampous0%
Revaz Injgia0%
Admir Bajrović0%
Orhan Dzepar0%
Henrique Gomes0%
João Tavares0%
Mauricio0%
Vieirinha0%
Marcos Charalambous0%
Christos Talichmanidis0%
Richie Omorowa0%
Leonidas Konomis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Kovalenko0%
João Mário0%
Christos Wheeler0%
Iasonas Pikis0%
Ektoras Stefanou0%
Stefanos Charalampous0%
Revaz Injgia0%
Admir Bajrović0%
Orhan Dzepar0%
Jean Felipe0%
Henrique Gomes0%
João Tavares0%
Mauricio0%
Vladimir Bradonjić0%
Vieirinha0%
Marcos Charalambous0%
Christos Talichmanidis0%
Geron Tocka0%
Richie Omorowa0%
Leonidas Konomis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (1)
€0m
Omonia 29is Maiou and Olympiakos have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KY (8)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
AN (1)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
Omonia 29is Maiou and Olympiakos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (4)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
PAE (0)
€0m
Omonia 29is Maiou and Olympiakos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
PAE (1)
€0m
AN (0)
€0m
Omonia 29is Maiou and Olympiakos have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Cyprus: 2. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Omonia Aradippou
Enosis
Digenis Morphou
PAEEK
Krasava Ypsonas
ASIL Lysi
Ahironas / Onisilos
Akritas
MEAP Nisou
Peyia
Ayia Napa
ENAD
Xylotympou
Ermis