PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia gives Omonia Nicosia a 55% win probability against AEK Larnaca in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-10, with 29% for the draw and 16% for AEK Larnaca. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (15.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Over 3.5 cards (73%).
The upset of the day came as AEK Larnaca drew 1-1 with Omonia Nicosia at home, extending the host's win streak to four games. The pre-match favourite, Omonia Nicosia, failed to come through, with the model's selection of a home win proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the probability of Omonia Nicosia winning stood at 55%. AEK Larnaca's away win was not the model's selection. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 82.5%. Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a probability of 81.7%, while Over 3.5 cards hit, with a probability of 72.6%.
Omonia Nicosia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.10 | 0.77 | 2.14 | 0.43 | 2.06 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.68 | 1.16 | 1.43 | 0.71 | 1.83 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.90 | 0.10 | 3.00 | 0.17 | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
AEK Larnaca| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 0.67 | 1.56 | 0.56 | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.15 | 0.54 | 2.38 | 0.38 | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| AEK Larnaca goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16% | 13% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Omonia NicosiaAEK LarnacaOmonia Nicosia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 25.7 | 24.4 | 26.9 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 19.0 | 19.0 | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 8.7 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 26.5 | 25.8 | 26.9 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 7.3 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 24.3 | 23.0 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 42% | 56% | 30% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 74% | 56% | 90% |
| % under line | 58% | 44% | 70% | 68% | 72% | 64% | 26% | 44% | 10% |
AEK Larnaca| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 24.4 | 23.1 | 25.7 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 9.6 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 25.1 | 24.2 | 25.7 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 9.7 | 9.7 | - | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 21.7 | 21.7 | - |
| % over line | 50% | 40% | 60% | 36% | 32% | 40% | 65% | 60% | 70% |
| % under line | 50% | 60% | 40% | 64% | 68% | 60% | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 15/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/09/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/01/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 16/09/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/04/24 | A | 2-0 |
Omonia Nicosia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
AEK Larnaca| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 87 | 75% | 2.4 | 88 | 24 | +64 | 3.1 | 89% | 56% | 33% | 7.9 | 27% | 4.7 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 69 | 56% | 1.9 | 62 | 33 | +29 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 9.7 | 55% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.4 | 64% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 2.6 | 72% | 47% | 25% | 8.9 | 31% | 5.1 | 69% | 24.7 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 4 |  Pafos | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 66 | 38 | +28 | 2.9 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.3 | 59% | 25.0 | 71% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 25% | 10.7 | 68% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.2 | 82% | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Aris | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 61 | 45 | +16 | 2.9 | 83% | 58% | 33% | 10.1 | 45% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.1 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 |  Anorthosis | 33 | 45 | 33% | 1.4 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 30% | 21% | 8.7 | 40% | 4.9 | 80% | 30.1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 8 |  AEL | 33 | 44 | 39% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.6 | 79% | 55% | 24% | 7.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 42 | 36% | 1.3 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 2.2 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 7.3 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.9 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 21% | 9.9 | 44% | 3.9 | 56% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Olympiakos | 33 | 40 | 30% | 1.2 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.3 | 70% | 42% | 24% | 6.8 | 12% | 3.8 | 38% | 29.4 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Akritas | 33 | 35 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 33% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.2 | 92% | 25.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 |  Ethnikos Achna | 33 | 33 | 30% | 1.0 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 2.6 | 67% | 55% | 30% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 89% | 28.8 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Enosis | 33 | 5 | 3% | 0.2 | 11 | 80 | -69 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.3 | 44% | 26.3 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 41% |