Ordabasy, with a 85% chance of winning, is the clear favourite to take down Altay (Kazakhstan) at home. The model rates them so highly due to their opponent's weakness on their own turf, where Altay have been conceding an average of 1.33 goals per game against similar-strength opponents.
The expected total number of goals is 4.2, with the most likely outcome being a high-scoring match. The model predicts a 24% chance of a 6+ goal game. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0 to Ordabasy, with a probability of 9.9%.
Ordabasy have been scoring an average of 2 goals per game at home, while conceding just 0.86. Altay, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.33 goals per game away from home, but conceding the same amount.
The model's selection for this match is a Home win, with a 85.5% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 result, which has a 92.7% chance of occurring, and an Over 2.5 result, with a 79.3% probability. The suggested picks are: Home win (85.5%), Over 1.5 (92.7%), and Over 2.5 (79.3%). The home win percentage is 85%, the draw percentage is 10%, and the away win percentage is 5%.
The win extends Ordabasy's 3-game winning run. A convincing home victory, as the final score of 3-1 reflects, with the home team emerging victorious. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 86%. The model's call was spot on, as Ordabasy's recent form, a 3-game winning run, suggested. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5, hit at 92.9%, Home win, hit at 85.9%, and Over 2.5, also hit at 79.6%.
Ordabasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.10 | 1.87 | 0.93 | 1.60 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.75 | 1.31 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.71 | 0.86 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.78 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Altay (Kazakhstan)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.33 | 2.21 | 1.14 | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.14 | 1.24 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Altay (Kazakhstan) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 8.6% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Ordabasy
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Ordabasy| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (26) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Altay (Kazakhstan)| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (6) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (40) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Ordabasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Altay (Kazakhstan)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.90 | 0.52 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Ordabasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.33 | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.44 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Altay (Kazakhstan)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.24 | 0.71 | 1.64 | 0.45 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 85.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 | H | 3-1 |
Ordabasy| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 7-1 |
Altay (Kazakhstan)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 15/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/10/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ordabasy | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 3.3 | 100% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | FC Astana | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Kairat Almaty | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Aktobe | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Kaspiy | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Irtysh | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 | Zhenys | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 11 | Yelimay Semey | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | Ulytau | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Kaisar | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Atyrau | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.7 | 83% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 15 | Altay (Kazakhstan) | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | - |