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Ordabasy vs Atyrau Result & Analysis

Date: 15/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Vs
49%
29%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Ordabasy win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atyrau win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L11D32W01L01L32W11D12LH·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·FC 23/07A·ZHE28/07H·FC 01/08H·PYU08/08A·PYU15/08A·SHA18/08H·AKT25/08A·KAI31/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.901.570.861.060.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.940.881.000.380.88
vs Weaker (14)2.070.862.500.671.751.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W30W40W00D12L22D11D10W11DA·FK 29/05A·ZHE02/06A·SHA15/06H·FK 19/06H·FK 23/06A·TUR01/07H·KAI03/08H·AKT11/08H·SHA24/08A·FK 31/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.701.410.410.851.08
vs Stronger (13)0.920.541.250.380.400.80
vs Similar (17)1.350.821.560.441.121.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
Under 3.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0 ✓
12.9%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.9%
Ordabasy goals ↓
Atyrau goals →
01234
011%7.4%3.8%1.1%0.2%
113%14%5.5%1.6%0.4%
210%9.0%3.9%1.2%0.3%
34.9%4.3%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.8%1.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = Atyrau goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
1.96
FC Astana
1.92
Aktobe
1.79
Ordabasy
1.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Yelimay Semey
1.54
Atyrau
1.46
Kaisar
1.42
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Zhenys
1.00
Zhetysu
0.96
Turan Turkistan
0.83
Shakhter Karagandy
0.42
Ordabasy is 0.29 points better than Atyrau in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.46).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
1.62
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Aktobe
1.62
Ordabasy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.46
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.38
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Atyrau
1.17
Kaisar
1.17
Zhenys
0.75
Zhetysu
0.71
Turan Turkistan
0.67
Shakhter Karagandy
0.50
Ordabasy is 0.33 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.17).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.79
Atyrau
0.83
Kairat Almaty
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.08
Aktobe
1.08
Kaisar
1.21
Yelimay Semey
1.33
Zhenys
1.33
Zhetysu
1.38
Turan Turkistan
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy
1.88
Ordabasy is 0.17 goals worse than Atyrau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

OrdabasyOrdabasy

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

804311350728H·SHAA·ZHEH·FC A·AKT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AtyrauAtyrau

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

OrdabasyOrdabasy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.012.08.00.60.30.930.0-30.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (25)10.012.08.01.00.61.330.0-30.0
vs Weaker (25)---0.30.00.5---
% over line50%100%0%8%4%12%100%-100%
% under line50%0%100%92%96%88%0%-0%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (29)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.9
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
3.8
FC Astana
3.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
2.3

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.0%
Under 9.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L10W11D00D00D10W01L10WH·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·FC 23/07A·ZHE28/07H·FC 01/08H·PYU08/08A·PYU15/08A·SHA18/08H·AKT25/08A·KAI31/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.790.500.620.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.250.440.250.500.250.38
vs Weaker (14)1.210.291.500.501.000.12
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W20W00D01L00D01L10W10WA·FK 29/05A·ZHE02/06A·SHA15/06H·FK 19/06H·FK 23/06A·TUR01/07H·KAI03/08H·AKT11/08H·SHA24/08A·FK 31/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.230.760.060.380.46
vs Stronger (13)0.540.230.750.120.200.40
vs Similar (17)0.650.240.780.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L21W01L01L22D10W02LH·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·FC 23/07A·ZHE28/07H·FC 01/08H·PYU08/08A·PYU15/08A·SHA18/08H·AKT25/08A·KAI31/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.790.360.440.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.380.500.620.500.120.50
vs Weaker (14)0.860.571.000.170.750.88
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W20W00D11D22D10W00D01LA·FK 29/05A·ZHE02/06A·SHA15/06H·FK 19/06H·FK 23/06A·TUR01/07H·KAI03/08H·AKT11/08H·SHA24/08A·FK 31/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.650.350.460.62
vs Stronger (13)0.380.310.500.250.200.40
vs Similar (17)0.710.590.780.440.620.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners85.3%--------
Under 5.5 cards83.5%--------
Under 3.579.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners76.9%--------
Over 2.5 cards70.9%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Ordabasy's squad is €6m more valuable than Atyrau's (€10m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Ordabasy's attack is €1m more valuable than Atyrau's (€3m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Ordabasy's midfield is €2m more valuable than Atyrau's (€3m vs €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
Ordabasy's defence is €3m more valuable than Atyrau's (€4m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ORD wins
2
Draws
1
ATY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ordabasy vs Atyrau · H/A from ORD
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/24AAtyrau Vs ORD1-1
15/07/23AAtyrau Vs ORD1-1
03/06/23HORD Vs Atyrau2-1
01/10/22HORD Vs Atyrau2-0
01/05/22AAtyrau Vs ORD2-1

OrdabasyOrdabasy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AKaisar Vs ORD2-1
25/08/24HORD Vs Aktobe1-1
18/08/24AShakhter Karagandy Vs ORD2-3
15/08/24APyunik Yerevan Vs ORD1-0
08/08/24HORD Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
01/08/24HORD Vs FC Differdange 033-2
28/07/24AZhetysu Vs ORD1-1
23/07/24AFC Differdange 03 Vs ORD1-0
17/07/24APetrocub Vs ORD1-0
10/07/24HORD Vs Petrocub0-0

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ATY1-1
24/08/24HATY Vs Shakhter Karagandy1-0
11/08/24HATY Vs Aktobe1-1
03/08/24HATY Vs Kaisar2-2
01/07/24ATuran Turkistan Vs ATY2-1
23/06/24HATY Vs FK Tobol Kostanay0-0
19/06/24HATY Vs FK Tobol Kostanay4-0
15/06/24AShakhter Karagandy Vs ATY0-3
02/06/24AZhenys Vs ATY0-1
29/05/24AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs ATY1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.82
HomeWDWLD2.12
AwayLDLWL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%42%
AVG goals2.402.542.27
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %44%50%38%
Over 3.5 %26%29%23%
Scored1.521.791.27
Conceded0.880.751.00
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet36%42%31%
Corners8.338.508.00
Cards5.143.257.67
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWD1.34
HomeWDDDW1.84
AwayLWWLD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%16%
AVG goals2.202.122.28
Over 1.5 %60%60%60%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.161.440.88
Conceded1.040.681.40
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet40%52%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2447
58%
2.0
3921+18
2.5
62%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.60.9
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2446
58%
1.9
3919+20
2.4
67%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.60.8
-
3AktobeAktobe2443
50%
1.8
3926+13
2.7
88%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.61.1
-
4OrdabasyOrdabasy2442
50%
1.8
3624+12
2.5
71%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.51.0
-
5FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2439
46%
1.6
3323+10
2.3
62%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.41.0
-
6Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2437
42%
1.5
3532+3
2.8
79%
58%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4031.51.3
-
7AtyrauAtyrau2435
38%
1.5
2820+8
2.0
58%
29%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
8KaisarKaisar2434
38%
1.4
2829-1
2.4
62%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2429
33%
1.2
2926+3
2.3
67%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.21.1
-
10ZhenysZhenys2424
25%
1.0
1832-14
2.1
62%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2020.81.3
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2423
21%
1.0
1733-16
2.1
62%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1020.71.4
-
12Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2420
21%
0.8
1639-23
2.3
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.6
-
13Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2410
8%
0.4
1245-33
2.4
58%
46%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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