Ordabasy are expected to triumph over FK Tobol Kostanay, building on their recent form. The home side has been on a 2-game winning run, including a convincing 4-0 victory over Zhetysu. This momentum has contributed to Ordabasy's 46% chance of winning, with a 27% probability of a draw and a 27% chance of FK Tobol Kostanay emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.8% of the time, while Ordabasy have averaged 1.67 goals per game at home, conceding 0.67. FK Tobol Kostanay have averaged 1.46 goals per game away from home, conceding 0.92 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Home win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5 goals, which has a 78.2% probability of occurring.
Results analysis
Ordabasy's win extends their run, as they secured a 2-0 victory over FK Tobol Kostanay. The final scoreline was a convincing one for the home side, as they sealed the actual result of Home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Home win, which had a pre-match probability of 46%. Ordabasy's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, and they have now won 4-0 and 2-0 in their last two outings. The model's selection of Home win proved correct. Additionally, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.2%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 25% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordabasy win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.50
Edge
-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Dafabet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.00
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.33
Pinnacle
4.28
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
Bet365
4.10
FK Tobol Kostanay win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 17.1% · @ 5.27
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.89
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
William Hil
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.20
1.73
0.80
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.60
1.40
1.71
0.86
1.50
1.88
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.92
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.90
1.80
0.80
1.47
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.93
1.57
1.00
1.71
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
0.79
2.14
0.57
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
@ 1.19+1.3%
Under 1.5
21.8%
@ 3.94-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.66-2.5%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.10+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 2.64-3.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.41+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
888Sport
2.70
Pinnacle
2.63
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.73+4.1%
No
43.1%
@ 1.94-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
No
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Unibet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.98+6.9%
2-1
9.4%@ 6.94+3.4%
1-0
8.6%@ 6.52+2.2%
2-0 ✓
7.9%@ 6.74+1.7%
0-0
7.2%@ 11.79+3.7%
1-2
6.9%@ 14.51+4.1%
0-1
6.0%@ 13.65+3.0%
2-2
5.6%@ 13.73+2.6%
Ordabasy goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.0%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.6%
13%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.4%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.2%
5.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Ordabasy is 0.73 points worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Ordabasy is 0.31 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Ordabasy is 0.12 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ordabasy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Tobol Kostanay
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ordabasy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
5.0
12.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.5
5.0
12.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
26.5
27.0
26.0
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.4
0.2
0.6
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
6%
4%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
94%
96%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Under
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.57
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.87
0.71
0.71
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.42
0.83
0.17
0.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.36
0.71
0.57
1.14
0.14
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
1.14
0.43
0.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTK (21)
€11m
ORD (22)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (22)
€8m
FA (19)
€8m
Ordabasy and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
FTK (6)
€4m
KA (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (6)
€1m
Ordabasy's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FTK (5)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
Ordabasy and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (10)
€4m
FA (10)
€4m
FTK (10)
€4m
KA (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
Ordabasy and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Aktobe
Kairat Almaty
Kyzyl-Zhar
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
Yelimay Semey
Irtysh
Zhenys
Kaisar
Atyrau
Ulytau
Zhetysu
Altay (Kazakhstan)