Ordabasy are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 48% chance to a home victory, 26% to a draw and 26% to a Kaisar win. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, reflecting a tight contest. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability, a modest chance that the match will finish level. Ordabasy, playing at home against a weaker side, average 2.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded, while Kaisar’s away form is weak, having lost four straight games before a 2-3 loss to Okzhetpes. The suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 89%, Over 2.5 cards at 88.8%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.8%, Over 1.5 at 80.8% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 75.6% and Under 9.5 corners at 71.9%. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
Ordabasy’s five-game winning streak continued as the home side dominated Kaisar 4-0, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The favourite, chosen with a 48% probability, proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8% chance, also hit, reflecting the high-scoring nature of the match. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the final result matched the predicted outcome. With Ordabasy’s recent form at home strong and Kaisar’s away record shaky, the outcome was in line with the statistical narrative. The match delivered on the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordabasy win✓ Hit
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.33
1.00
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
2.00
2.50
1.25
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.00
2.14
0.71
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.10
2.27
1.20
2.07
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.92
1.16
2.08
1.33
1.77
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
4.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
Ordabasy goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.2%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.8%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.5%
5.5%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
Ordabasy is 0.85 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (2.23 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
Ordabasy is 0.65 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.85 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
Ordabasy is 0.35 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ordabasy
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ordabasy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
5.0
5.0
-
0.2
0.3
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
5.0
5.0
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
3%
6%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
97%
94%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
10.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
8.7
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Zhetysu
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Aktobe
6.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
4.5
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
28.1%
Under 9.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
1.13
0.67
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.93
1.00
0.75
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.53
1.29
0.57
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.20
0.53
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.56
1.25
0.67
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.20
0.33
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.07
1.50
0.50
0.43
1.71
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.47
0.86
0.14
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.67
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.60
0.83
0.67
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Ordabasy's squad is €6m more valuable than Kaisar's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Ordabasy's attack is €1m more valuable than Kaisar's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Ordabasy's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kaisar's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Ordabasy's defence is €3m more valuable than Kaisar's (€4m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →