Ordabasy’s recent five-game winning streak and a 3-0 triumph over Kyzyl-Zhar set a clear narrative: the model rates a home win as the most likely outcome, with a 74% probability. Their home form against weaker opposition shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.71 conceded, underscoring the advantage of playing at home. Kaisar, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded against stronger opponents, which explains the low 8% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals hover at 3.0, yet the most probable total is 2, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 13.5% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 98.8%, Home +2 handicap at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.9%, Under 6.5 at 96.7%, Under 5.5 at 91.7%, Home or Draw at 91.7%, and Home +1 handicap at 91.7%. The model’s probabilities for the match result are 74% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 8% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordabasy win
73.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win
8.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
2.06
0.88
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.43
2.11
1.00
1.40
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.88
0.75
2.00
0.71
1.78
0.78
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.25
1.19
1.21
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.93
1.12
1.38
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.3%
1-0
10.6%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-0
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
Ordabasy goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
11%
8.6%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
9.1%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ekibastuz
2.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.20
Yelimay Semey
2.00
Ordabasy
1.60
Turan Turkistan
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Irtysh
1.33
Khan Tengri
1.25
Zhenys
1.25
Kaspiy
1.25
Ansat
1.01
Karshiga Almaty
1.01
BKS
1.01
Chromtau
1.01
Jelaev Nan
1.01
Jaiyq
1.01
FC Astana
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.00
Arys
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Talas Karatau
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Jas Qyran
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Ordabasy is 1.60 points better than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SD Family
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.67
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.40
Kaspiy
1.25
FC Astana
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Irtysh
1.00
Ansat
0.79
Karshiga Almaty
0.79
BKS
0.79
Chromtau
0.79
Jelaev Nan
0.79
Jaiyq
0.79
Ordabasy
0.60
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.25
Talas Karatau
0.00
Jas Qyran
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Taraz
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Ordabasy is 0.60 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.00
Taraz
0.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.40
Ordabasy
0.40
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Kairat Almaty
0.50
Talas Karatau
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Aktobe
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
Kaisar
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
SD Family
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Ansat
1.09
Karshiga Almaty
1.09
BKS
1.09
Chromtau
1.09
Jelaev Nan
1.09
Jaiyq
1.09
Kaspiy
1.25
Irtysh
1.67
Atyrau
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ulytau
3.00
Ordabasy is 0.60 goals better than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ordabasy or Draw
91.5%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Ordabasy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy or Kaisar
82.0%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Ordabasy + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaisar
26.5%
Avg Implied -
74%
18%
8%
covers Draw + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5
Over
90.3%
Under
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 3.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ordabasy, so a minus line means Ordabasy give that many goals of a start and Kaisar receive them. At -1, Ordabasy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ordabasy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy -2
29.0%
Draw -2
22.0%
Kaisar +2
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy -1
51.0%
Draw -1
22.5%
Kaisar +1
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy +1
91.5%
Draw +1
6.1%
Kaisar -1
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy +2
97.6%
Draw +2
1.9%
Kaisar -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.94
0.50
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.86
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.38
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.62
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.12
0.38
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.11
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.71
1.22
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Ordabasy's squad is €6m more valuable than Kaisar's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Ordabasy's attack is €1m more valuable than Kaisar's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Ordabasy's midfield is €2m more valuable than Kaisar's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Ordabasy's defence is €3m more valuable than Kaisar's (€4m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu