Ordabasy’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-0 triumph over Kyzyl-Zhar, fuels the model’s confidence that a home win is most likely. The Pythia engine rates a 67% chance of victory for Ordabasy, 21% for a draw and 13% for a Zhenys win, making the home win the clear favourite. The model expects 3.1 goals in total, with the most probable scoreline being 2-0 for Ordabasy, a 11.3% probability. Ordabasy averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.71 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Zhenys, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The suggested picks include an 98.8% chance of Away under 3.5 goals, a 98.7% chance of Under 7.5 goals, a 96.3% chance of Under 6.5 goals, a 95.9% chance of Home +2 handicap, a 94.3% chance of Away under 2.5 goals, a 90.9% chance of Under 5.5 goals, an 89.0% chance of Home over 0.5 goals and an 87.4% chance of Home or Draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordabasy win
67.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhenys win
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
2.06
0.88
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.43
2.11
1.00
1.40
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.88
0.75
2.00
0.71
1.78
0.78
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.33
2.00
0.94
1.79
1.79
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.67
1.50
1.25
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.95
1.20
2.17
0.83
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
8.3%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.5%
4-0
4.6%
Ordabasy goals ↓
Zhenys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
9.3%
9.7%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.3%
7.2%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
4.6%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = Zhenys goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Ordabasy is 0.75 points better than Zhenys in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Ordabasy is 0.92 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Ordabasy is 0.33 goals better than Zhenys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ordabasy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zhenys
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ordabasy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zhenys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ordabasy or Draw
87.5%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Ordabasy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy or Zhenys
79.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Ordabasy + Zhenys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zhenys
33.0%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Draw + Zhenys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 3.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ordabasy, so a minus line means Ordabasy give that many goals of a start and Zhenys receive them. At -1, Ordabasy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ordabasy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy -2
23.9%
Draw -2
20.4%
Zhenys +2
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy -1
44.3%
Draw -1
22.7%
Zhenys +1
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy +1
87.5%
Draw +1
8.4%
Zhenys -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ordabasy)
Ordabasy +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.1%
Zhenys -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.94
0.50
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.86
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.31
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.55
1.17
0.33
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.12
0.38
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.11
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.71
1.22
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhenys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhenys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.00
0.62
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.65
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhenys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Ordabasy's squad is €6m more valuable than Zhenys's (€10m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Ordabasy's attack is €1m more valuable than Zhenys's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Ordabasy's midfield is €2m more valuable than Zhenys's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Ordabasy's defence is €3m more valuable than Zhenys's (€4m vs €2m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Astana
Kairat Almaty
Aktobe
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Irtysh
Kyzyl-Zhar
Yelimay Semey
Ulytau
Kaisar
Atyrau
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Zhetysu