Ordabasy’s defensive solidity at home - allowing just 0.67 goals on average against weaker opposition - sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model sees a 41% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw, and 27% for a Zhetysu victory, with the home side the clear favourite. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Ordabasy will score about 1.83 goals and concede 0.67, while Zhetysu, playing away against stronger opponents, averages 0.56 scored and 2.67 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 4.5 (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.3%), and Home +2 handicap (90.0%).
Results analysis
Ordabasy’s win extended a four-game winning run, while Zhetysu struggled after two consecutive defeats. The model’s favourite was a Home win with a 41% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 1-0 in favour of Ordabasy. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the match still delivered a single goal, matching the model’s expectation of 2.1 total goals. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 4.5 (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.3%) and Home +2 handicap (90.0%). The model’s selections were spot on.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordabasy win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordabasy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.75
0.81
1.50
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.12
1.70
0.90
1.83
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.93
1.83
0.67
1.25
1.12
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.57
0.69
1.15
0.88
1.88
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
2.31
1.00
1.86
0.56
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.77
0.33
0.33
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
63.8%
Under 1.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.5%
Under 2.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.4%
1-0 ✓
13.0%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.2%
Ordabasy goals ↓
Zhetysu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.8%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.5%
7.9%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.1%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordabasy goals (down), columns = Zhetysu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.60
Ekibastuz
2.33
Ordabasy
2.00
Yelimay Semey
2.00
Turan Turkistan
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Irtysh
1.33
Khan Tengri
1.25
Kaspiy
1.25
Zhenys
1.25
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.25
Arys
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Jaiyq
0.99
Ansat
0.99
Karshiga Almaty
0.99
BKS
0.99
Chromtau
0.99
Jelaev Nan
0.99
Talas Karatau
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Jas Qyran
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Ordabasy is 2.00 points better than Zhetysu in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SD Family
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.67
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.60
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.25
Arys
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Irtysh
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Jaiyq
0.80
Ansat
0.80
Karshiga Almaty
0.80
BKS
0.80
Chromtau
0.80
Jelaev Nan
0.80
Ordabasy
0.80
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.25
Taraz
0.00
Talas Karatau
0.00
Jas Qyran
0.00
Atyrau
0.00
Aktobe
0.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Zhetysu
0.00
Ulytau
0.00
Ordabasy is 0.80 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Taraz
0.00
Yelimay Semey
0.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.25
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.40
Ordabasy
0.40
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Kairat Almaty
0.50
Arys
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Talas Karatau
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
SD Family
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Aktobe
1.00
Kaisar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Jaiyq
1.13
Ansat
1.13
Karshiga Almaty
1.13
BKS
1.13
Chromtau
1.13
Jelaev Nan
1.13
Kaspiy
1.25
Irtysh
1.67
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Atyrau
2.00
Ulytau
3.00
Ordabasy is 0.60 goals better than Zhetysu in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ordabasy or Draw✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
27%
covers Ordabasy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy or Zhetysu✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
27%
covers Ordabasy + Zhetysu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zhetysu✗ Miss
59.3%
Avg Implied -
41%
32%
27%
covers Draw + Zhetysu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ordabasy, so a minus line means Ordabasy give that many goals of a start and Zhetysu receive them. At -1, Ordabasy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ordabasy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ordabasy)Actual: Zhetysu
Ordabasy -2
6.0%
Draw -2
12.1%
Zhetysu +2
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ordabasy)Actual: Draw
Ordabasy -1
18.2%
Draw -1
22.5%
Zhetysu +1
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ordabasy)Actual: Ordabasy
Ordabasy +1
72.8%
Draw +1
17.2%
Zhetysu -1
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ordabasy)Actual: Ordabasy
Ordabasy +2
90.0%
Draw +2
7.3%
Zhetysu -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.75
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
0.70
0.80
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.43
0.83
0.17
0.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.93
0.38
0.54
0.12
1.24
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.44
0.57
0.86
0.11
1.89
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.38
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ordabasy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.10
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhetysu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zhetysu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.31
0.62
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.88
0.43
1.00
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.38
0.17
0.17
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordabasy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordabasy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordabasy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhetysu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →