Ordino are the clear favourites to win, with a 61% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of Carroi winning. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11%. Ordino, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, normally scores 2.38 goals and concedes 1.38, while Carroi, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded against comparable opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.9%, Home +2 handicap at 94.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.8%, Under 5.5 at 92.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 86.4% and Home under 3.5 goals at 85.8%. Ordino’s recent draw against Esperança d'Andorra and Carroi’s recent win over Inter Club d'Escaldes set the stage for a tight contest, but the odds favour Ordino to edge out the visitors.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ordino win
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carroi win
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ordino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.73
1.38
1.62
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
1.88
0.38
1.88
0.44
1.89
vs Similar (12)
2.25
1.58
2.38
1.38
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.00
0.87
1.40
0.73
2.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
2.50
0.71
2.00
0.14
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.79
1.17
1.17
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.5%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
6.2%
1-2
4.7%
Ordino goals ↓
Carroi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.5%
11%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.0%
6.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.3%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ordino goals (down), columns = Carroi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Ordino is 0.20 points better than Carroi in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 0.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Ordino is 0.53 goals better than Carroi in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Ordino is 0.45 goals better than Carroi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ordino or Draw
83.7%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Ordino + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordino or Carroi
76.9%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Ordino + Carroi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Carroi
39.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Carroi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ordino over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 3.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ordino, so a minus line means Ordino give that many goals of a start and Carroi receive them. At -1, Ordino must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ordino win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ordino)
Ordino -2
18.7%
Draw -2
18.9%
Carroi +2
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ordino)
Ordino -1
37.5%
Draw -1
23.1%
Carroi +1
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ordino)
Ordino +1
83.7%
Draw +1
10.5%
Carroi -1
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ordino)
Ordino +2
94.2%
Draw +2
4.3%
Carroi -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ordino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.44
0.75
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
0.94
0.00
1.00
0.11
0.89
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ordino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ordino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.94
0.88
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
0.94
0.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.08
1.50
0.88
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carroi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.73
0.87
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.42
0.67
1.17
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.06
0.86
0.71
1.11
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ordino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carroi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Ordino and Carroi have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Ordino and Carroi have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Ordino and Carroi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Ordino and Carroi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →