Orebro SK enter the match after a 3-3 draw, while Varbergs BoIS FC also finish level, both teams having just earned a draw in their last fixtures. The model favours an away win with a 45% chance, the home side only 28% and a draw 27%. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13% chance.
Orebro SK, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.23 conceded. Varbergs BoIS FC, on the road, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against comparable opposition.
Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%, edge 4%), Under 6.5 (97.7%, edge 2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%, edge 8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (93.9%, edge 5%) and Under 5.5 (93.8%, edge 2%).
Results analysis
The upset came as the pre-match favourite, an away win for Varbergs BoIS FC, failed to materialise, with a 45% probability that the model had assigned to that outcome. The match finished 2-1 in favour of home side Örebro SK, extending their two-game winning run. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The final score also matched the 25% chance of a 2-goal total, but the 28% probability of a home win was not realised. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.8%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.9%, and Under 5.5 hit at 93.8%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and no additional numbers were introduced.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orebro SK win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 32.8% · @ 2.80
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.99
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Dafabet
2.85
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.36
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
Varbergs BoIS FC win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.31
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.40
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.35
SBO
2.34
Dafabet
2.34
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orebro SK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.70
1.29
1.50
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.71
1.09
1.36
1.46
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.50
1.00
1.69
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.66
1.28
1.50
1.00
1.80
1.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
@ 1.21+0.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
@ 4.04-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.70-3.2%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.10+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
SBO
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.20
SBO
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.70-4.5%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.42+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.00
Pinnacle
2.88
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.56-3.0%
No
43.8%
@ 2.27+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.62
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.41+6.1%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.39+4.0%
0-1
8.8%@ 9.15+3.9%
0-2
7.9%@ 11.90+4.1%
0-0
7.5%@ 11.82+3.8%
2-1 ✓
7.0%@ 9.50+2.3%
1-0
6.3%@ 10.17+2.0%
2-2
5.5%@ 10.91+1.4%
Orebro SK goals ↓
Varbergs BoIS FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.8%
7.9%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.3%
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.4%
7.0%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
3
1.8%
2.8%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orebro SK goals (down), columns = Varbergs BoIS FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.81
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76
Ostersunds FK
1.67
Osters IF
1.57
United Nordic
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.48
Oddevold
1.38
Sandviken
1.29
Helsingborg
1.24
Ljungskile SK
1.14
Norrby IF
1.10
IFK Varnamo
1.05
IK brage
1.00
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.62
Orebro SK is 0.81 points worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.95
IFK Norrkoping
1.95
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.81
IK brage
1.67
Sandviken
1.62
Oddevold
1.62
Helsingborg
1.62
United Nordic
1.52
Osters IF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.43
Ljungskile SK
1.29
Landskrona BoIS
1.29
Norrby IF
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.19
Orebro SK
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.71
Orebro SK is 0.81 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.62
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Norrby IF
1.33
Ljungskile SK
1.33
United Nordic
1.43
Osters IF
1.43
Falkenbergs FF
1.43
Sandviken
1.48
Oddevold
1.48
Orebro SK
1.57
IFK Varnamo
1.81
Helsingborg
1.95
IK brage
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.10
Orebro SK is 0.29 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
57%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ostersunds FK
53%
Osters IF
50%
Orebro SK
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Ljungskile SK
50%
Oddevold
50%
United Nordic
49%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
44%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Orebro SK is 3.3 percentage points better than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Orebro SK
For 2.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Varbergs BoIS FC
For 4.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Orebro SK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.1
8.7
1.5
1.6
1.3
24.5
23.3
25.4
vs Stronger (10)
6.0
-
6.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (40)
9.5
10.1
9.0
1.8
1.9
1.6
24.2
23.3
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
62%
36%
18%
22%
15%
64%
67%
62%
% under line
53%
38%
64%
82%
78%
85%
36%
33%
38%
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.3
1.7
1.8
1.7
27.9
29.0
27.1
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
9.1
8.9
9.3
1.8
1.8
1.8
27.9
29.0
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
45%
50%
24%
25%
23%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
55%
50%
76%
75%
77%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Ostersunds FK
9.4
Orebro SK
9.4
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
3.9
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.4
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.0
Oddevold
2.9
United Nordic
2.7
Falkenbergs FF
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Osters IF
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.1%
@ 1.90-4.6%
Under 9.5
55.9%
@ 1.80+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.5%
Under 21.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Orebro SK or Draw✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied 59.9% · @ 1.55
Edge
-5.1%
28%
27%
45%
covers Orebro SK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Orebro SK or Varbergs BoIS FC✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.3%
28%
27%
45%
covers Orebro SK + Varbergs BoIS FC
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC✗ Miss
72.5%
Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.39
Edge
+5.4%
28%
27%
45%
covers Draw + Varbergs BoIS FC
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Orebro SK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
@ 1.26-3.9%
Under
30.6%
@ 3.48+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.57
Betano
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Orebro SK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.2%
@ 2.32-6.9%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.55+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
888Sport
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Orebro SK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.26-5.9%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.13+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Orebro SK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 12.81-4.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.21+2.3%
Under
20.7%
@ 4.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.25
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 2.04+1.2%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.71-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 4.29-0.7%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.19+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.00
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 10.38-1.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Orebro SK, so a minus line means Orebro SK give that many goals of a start and Varbergs BoIS FC receive them. At -1, Orebro SK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Orebro SK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Orebro SK)Actual: Varbergs BoIS FC
Orebro SK -2
3.7%
@ 9.85-5.1%
Draw -2
7.9%
@ 6.42-5.5%
Varbergs BoIS FC +2
88.4%
@ 1.11+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Orebro SK)Actual: Draw
Orebro SK -1
11.6%
@ 5.50-4.6%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.56-3.7%
Varbergs BoIS FC +1
72.5%
@ 1.39+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Away
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Handicap +1 (Orebro SK)Actual: Orebro SK
Orebro SK +1
54.8%
@ 1.57-2.1%
Draw +1
21.5%
@ 4.05-0.6%
Varbergs BoIS FC -1
23.7%
@ 4.24+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Handicap +2 (Orebro SK)Actual: Orebro SK
Orebro SK +2
76.3%
@ 1.17-0.3%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 6.59+0.4%
Varbergs BoIS FC -2
9.7%
@ 9.20-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
8.80
Unibet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orebro SK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.64
0.64
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.62
0.55
0.55
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.79
0.36
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.45
0.79
0.36
0.93
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.31-0.6%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 3.18+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.7%
@ 2.46-3.0%
Under 1.5
65.3%
@ 1.48+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 5.91-3.2%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.10+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orebro SK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.5%
@ 2.04-5.0%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.70+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Orebro SK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.3%
@ 6.19-4.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.09+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
Orebro SK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 16.88-4.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.2%
@ 1.87-1.5%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.84+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.40-2.5%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.12+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.62-4.1%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orebro SK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.64
0.86
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
1.08
0.55
0.82
0.62
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.87
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orebro SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.18-0.5%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 4.29+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.7%
@ 1.87+2.3%
Under 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.83-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Unibet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 3.69-5.1%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.23+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orebro SK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 1.71-8.0%
Under
53.9%
@ 2.01+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Orebro SK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.46-6.3%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.17+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Orebro SK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 10.88-5.5%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 1.62-3.1%
Under
45.9%
@ 2.16+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.02
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 3.86-2.4%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.22+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 9.50-3.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
88.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.13
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.21
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
1.28
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-
+6.8%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
1.21
888Sport
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.7%
1.28
888Sport
1.33
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.5%
1.39
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
72.5%
1.39
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
-
+8.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.31
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.42
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
+4.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Orebro SK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmed Yasin33%
Karl Holmberg33%
Antonio Yakoub33%
Jacob Ortmark0%
John Stenberg0%
Jakub Ojrzyński0%
Christopher Redenstrand0%
Hampus Söderstrom0%
Giuseppe Bovalina0%
Victor Sandberg0%
Erman Hrastovina0%
Hasan Dana0%
Fabian Walhström0%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
John Stenberg33%
Jakub Ojrzyński33%
Hampus Söderstrom33%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic33%
Jacob Ortmark0%
Ahmed Yasin0%
Karl Holmberg0%
Antonio Yakoub0%
Christopher Redenstrand0%
Giuseppe Bovalina0%
Victor Sandberg0%
Erman Hrastovina0%
Hasan Dana0%
Fabian Walhström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Karl Holmberg33%
Jacob Ortmark0%
Ahmed Yasin0%
John Stenberg0%
Jakub Ojrzyński0%
Antonio Yakoub0%
Christopher Redenstrand0%
Hampus Söderstrom0%
Giuseppe Bovalina0%
Victor Sandberg0%
Erman Hrastovina0%
Hasan Dana0%
Fabian Walhström0%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Yakoub33%
Jacob Ortmark0%
Ahmed Yasin0%
Karl Holmberg0%
John Stenberg0%
Jakub Ojrzyński0%
Christopher Redenstrand0%
Hampus Söderstrom0%
Giuseppe Bovalina0%
Victor Sandberg0%
Erman Hrastovina0%
Hasan Dana0%
Fabian Walhström0%
Edwin Ibrahimbegovic0%
Varbergs BoIS FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Severin Nioule50%
Wilhelm Arlig25%
Shanyder Borgelin25%
Niklas Dahlström25%
Edvin Tellgren25%
Aulon Bitiqi25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Albin Winbo0%
Emil Hellman0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Noah Johansson0%
Isak Vidjeskog0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Dahlström50%
Erion Sadiku33%
Gustav Broman33%
Emil Hellman25%
Noah Johansson25%
Isak Vidjeskog25%
Severin Nioule25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Wilhelm Arlig0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Shanyder Borgelin0%
Albin Winbo0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Aulon Bitiqi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Silverholt33%
Wilhelm Arlig25%
Albin Winbo25%
Emil Hellman25%
Noah Johansson25%
Isak Vidjeskog25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Shanyder Borgelin0%
Niklas Dahlström0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Aulon Bitiqi0%
Severin Nioule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Shanyder Borgelin25%
Aulon Bitiqi25%
Joakim Lindner0%
Erion Sadiku0%
Wilhelm Arlig0%
Oliver Silverholt0%
Niklas Dahlström0%
Albin Winbo0%
Emil Hellman0%
Gustav Broman0%
Oscar Ekman0%
Edvin Tellgren0%
Noah Johansson0%
Isak Vidjeskog0%
Severin Nioule0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (23)
€5m
SAN (20)
€4m
GS (22)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Orebro SK's squad is €1m less valuable than Varbergs BoIS FC's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
IB (5)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
GS (5)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Orebro SK's midfield is €1m less valuable than Varbergs BoIS FC's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
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IFK Norrkoping
Falkenbergs FF
Ostersunds FK
Osters IF
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Ljungskile SK
Norrby IF
IFK Varnamo
IK brage
GIF Sundsvall