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Orsha vs Niva Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 3-5
Orsha
Orsha
Vs
33%
24%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Niva
Niva
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Orsha’s recent form shows a win, but their home attack has been modest, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.8 against stronger opposition. Niva, on the other hand, has been prolific on the road, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker teams, and they just delivered a 6-0 victory. The model therefore picks an away win with a 43% probability, while a home win is 33% and a draw 24%. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% probability. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals comes with an 86.6% chance. All other suggested picks are omitted because only one selection is provided.

Results analysis

The match saw Niva extend their winning run, with the final score 3-5 confirming an away victory. The model’s favourite, Away win, was correct, having been assigned a 43% probability. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit as expected, with an 86.6% chance. The predicted most likely total of three goals, at 22% probability, was surpassed by the actual eight goals. Orsha’s home form was mixed, but their recent win over Slonim gave them a brief lift, while Niva’s away form was strong, highlighted by a 6-0 win over Osipovichy. Overall, the Pythia model delivered on the favoured outcome and its main selection.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orsha win✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L12L30W22D01L23L25L13L11D03LH·MOL30/09A·SHA07/10H·OSI15/10A·BUM29/10H·VOL04/11A·FC 11/11H·ZHO19/11A·NIV25/11A·TOR06/04A·VOL13/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.871.331.731.802.00
vs Stronger (20)1.501.901.401.801.602.00
vs Similar (10)1.701.801.201.602.202.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W10W36L11D21W13L41W31W21W01LA·BAR08/10H·SLO15/10A·ML 21/10H·OST28/10A·MOL05/11H·SHA12/11A·OSI19/11H·ORS25/11A·DIN06/04H·LID13/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.901.672.001.871.80
vs Stronger (2)1.505.500.005.003.006.00
vs Similar (22)1.681.911.642.091.731.73
vs Weaker (6)2.170.672.330.672.000.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.0%
No
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.5%
1-3
5.3%
0-1
5.0%
2-3
4.3%
Orsha goals ↓
Niva goals →
01234
04.2%5.0%5.5%3.4%1.5%
14.2%10%8.7%5.3%2.5%
24.1%7.5%6.9%4.3%2.0%
32.2%4.0%3.7%2.3%1.0%
40.9%1.6%1.5%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
Orsha is 0.74 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 2.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
Orsha is 0.79 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 2.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
Orsha is 0.50 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L20W20W00D02L24L02L11D01LH·MOL30/09A·SHA07/10H·OSI15/10A·BUM29/10H·VOL04/11A·FC 11/11H·ZHO19/11A·NIV25/11A·TOR06/04A·VOL13/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.600.930.731.07
vs Stronger (20)0.551.250.501.300.601.20
vs Similar (10)0.900.500.800.201.000.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L11D00D11D21W20W01L01LA·BAR08/10H·SLO15/10A·ML 21/10H·OST28/10A·MOL05/11H·SHA12/11A·OSI19/11H·ORS25/11A·DIN06/04H·LID13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.870.930.471.00
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (22)0.551.000.821.000.271.00
vs Weaker (6)1.330.501.330.331.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W02L01L21W01L11D00D02LH·MOL30/09A·SHA07/10H·OSI15/10A·BUM29/10H·VOL04/11A·FC 11/11H·ZHO19/11A·NIV25/11A·TOR06/04A·VOL13/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.870.730.801.070.93
vs Stronger (20)0.950.650.900.501.000.80
vs Similar (10)0.801.300.401.401.201.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W34L00D21W02L20W11D20W00DA·BAR08/10H·SLO15/10A·ML 21/10H·OST28/10A·MOL05/11H·SHA12/11A·OSI19/11H·ORS25/11A·DIN06/04H·LID13/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.930.801.071.400.80
vs Stronger (2)1.503.500.003.003.004.00
vs Similar (22)1.140.910.821.091.450.73
vs Weaker (6)0.830.171.000.330.670.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
Orsha and Niva have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Orsha and Niva have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ORS wins
1
Draws
1
NIV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Orsha vs Niva · H/A from ORS
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/23ANiva Vs ORS3-1
06/08/23HORS Vs Niva1-1

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24AVolna Vs ORS3-0
06/04/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs ORS1-1
25/11/23ANiva Vs ORS3-1
19/11/23HORS Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe2-5
11/11/23AFC Vitebsk Vs ORS3-2
04/11/23HORS Vs Volna0-1
29/10/23ABumprom Vs ORS2-2
15/10/23HORS Vs Osipovichy3-0
07/10/23AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs ORS2-1
30/09/23HORS Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 41-2

NivaNiva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HNIV Vs Lida0-1
06/04/24ADinamo Minsk II Vs NIV1-2
25/11/23HNIV Vs Orsha3-1
19/11/23AOsipovichy Vs NIV1-4
12/11/23HNIV Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov1-3
05/11/23AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs NIV1-2
28/10/23HNIV Vs Ostrovets FC1-1
21/10/23AML Vitebsk Vs NIV6-3
15/10/23HNIV Vs Slonim1-0
08/10/23ABaranovichi Vs NIV0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.00
HomeWLWLL1.20
AwayDLLDL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals3.543.123.96
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %76%72%80%
Over 3.5 %50%40%60%
Scored1.521.481.56
Conceded2.021.642.40
BTTS70%64%76%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Niva
Niva
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.29
HomeWDLWL1.06
AwayWLWWW1.53
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%29%47%
AVG goals3.623.653.59
Over 1.5 %85%88%82%
Over 2.5 %68%71%65%
Over 3.5 %44%47%41%
Scored1.621.531.71
Conceded2.002.121.88
BTTS71%71%71%
Clean Sheet12%6%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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