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Orsha vs Slonim Result & Analysis

Date: 07/07/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 2-0
Orsha
Orsha
Vs
46%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Orsha are tipped to edge Slonim in a tight Belarusian 1. Division clash, with the model favouring a home win at 46%. The encounter is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, but the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% probability. Orsha’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Slonim’s away record is a flat 0.0 for both scoring and conceding. The recent-form narrative starts with Orsha coming off a win, whereas Slonim return from a defeat. The model’s selections include an 76.4% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 71.3% chance of under 3.5 goals. Home win probability 46%, draw 28%, away win 27%. All figures are presented as percentages and no other outcomes are highlighted.

Results analysis

The win extends Orsha’s recent run, as they beat Slonim 2-0, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 46% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5, with a 76.4% chance, hit; Under 3.5, at 71.3%, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 had a 13.1% chance, but the 2-1 and 1-0 options each carried 9.3%. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the model’s pick was right.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orsha win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slonim win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W02L11D00D11D11D10W10W22DA·ML 28/04H·BAR03/05A·MOL10/05H·OST17/05A·SHA25/05H·BAT01/06A·LOK09/06H·DIN16/06A·LID23/06H·FC 29/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.671.501.561.211.79
vs Stronger (20)1.301.801.641.820.891.78
vs Similar (10)1.501.401.201.001.801.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L00D23L23L12L00D10W02L22DA·NIV27/04H·ML 04/05A·BAR12/05H·MOL18/05A·OST25/05H·SHA02/06A·BAT08/06H·LOK14/06A·DIN22/06H·LID29/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.070.932.400.871.73
vs Stronger (28)0.892.180.862.500.931.86
vs Similar (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
9.3%
2-0 ✓
8.2%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
Orsha goals ↓
Slonim goals →
01234
07.9%6.5%4.4%1.7%0.5%
19.3%13%6.8%2.6%0.7%
28.2%9.3%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.3%4.9%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.7%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orsha goals (down), columns = Slonim goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
Orsha is 0.56 points better than Slonim in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 0.76).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
Orsha is 0.59 goals better than Slonim in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 0.76).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
Orsha is 0.41 goals better than Slonim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.91).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D10W00D11D11D10W00D21WA·ML 28/04H·BAR03/05A·MOL10/05H·OST17/05A·SHA25/05H·BAT01/06A·LOK09/06H·DIN16/06A·LID23/06H·FC 29/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.810.810.360.93
vs Stronger (20)0.451.050.731.000.111.11
vs Similar (10)0.900.501.000.400.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D01L22D01L00D00D01L20WA·NIV27/04H·ML 04/05A·BAR12/05H·MOL18/05A·OST25/05H·SHA02/06A·BAT08/06H·LOK14/06A·DIN22/06H·LID29/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.930.331.200.400.67
vs Stronger (28)0.361.000.291.290.430.71
vs Similar (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W02L01L00D00D00D00D10W01LA·ML 28/04H·BAR03/05A·MOL10/05H·OST17/05A·SHA25/05H·BAT01/06A·LOK09/06H·DIN16/06A·LID23/06H·FC 29/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.690.750.860.86
vs Stronger (20)0.850.750.910.820.780.67
vs Similar (10)0.600.900.200.601.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Slonim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SlonimSlonim

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L00D22D01L11D00D10W01L02LA·NIV27/04H·ML 04/05A·BAR12/05H·MOL18/05A·OST25/05H·SHA02/06A·BAT08/06H·LOK14/06A·DIN22/06H·LID29/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.130.601.200.471.07
vs Stronger (28)0.541.180.571.210.501.14
vs Similar (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slonim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Orsha and Slonim have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
ORS wins
0
Draws
3
SLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Orsha vs Slonim · H/A from ORS
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/23ASlonim Vs ORS2-1
07/05/23HORS Vs Slonim1-2
12/11/22HORS Vs Slonim4-0
23/07/22ASlonim Vs ORS3-2

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/24HORS Vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk2-2
23/06/24ALida Vs ORS0-1
16/06/24HORS Vs Dinamo Minsk II1-0
09/06/24ALokomotiv Gomel Vs ORS1-1
01/06/24HORS Vs BATE II1-1
25/05/24AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs ORS0-0
17/05/24HORS Vs Ostrovets FC1-1
10/05/24AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs ORS2-0
03/05/24HORS Vs Baranovichi4-0
28/04/24AML Vitebsk Vs ORS1-1

SlonimSlonim

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/24HSLO Vs Lida2-2
22/06/24ADinamo Minsk II Vs SLO2-0
14/06/24HSLO Vs Lokomotiv Gomel1-0
08/06/24ABATE II Vs SLO0-0
02/06/24HSLO Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov1-2
25/05/24AOstrovets FC Vs SLO3-2
18/05/24HSLO Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 42-3
12/05/24ABaranovichi Vs SLO0-0
04/05/24HSLO Vs ML Vitebsk1-4
27/04/24ANiva Vs SLO0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.12
HomeWDDWD1.20
AwayDLDDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals3.203.123.28
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored1.501.521.48
Conceded1.701.601.80
BTTS66%60%72%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Slonim
Slonim
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLD0.76
HomeLLLWD0.76
AwayDDLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%20%16%
AVG goals2.803.122.48
Over 1.5 %66%80%52%
Over 2.5 %52%60%44%
Over 3.5 %38%40%36%
Scored0.900.960.84
Conceded1.902.161.64
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet18%16%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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