This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
1.40
0.67
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.30
0.85
1.62
0.69
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.47+10.1%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.54-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.2%
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
Osasuna goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
11%
10%
5.8%
2.4%
1
5.7%
13%
9.7%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.2%
5.3%
4.5%
2.5%
1.1%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osasuna goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.29
Barcelona
2.16
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Sevilla
1.84
Villarreal
1.58
Granada CF
1.47
Real Sociedad
1.47
Getafe
1.42
Valencia
1.39
Osasuna
1.37
Athletic Club
1.34
Levante
1.29
Valladolid
1.11
Eibar
1.11
Real Betis
1.08
Alaves
1.03
Celta Vigo
0.97
Leganes
0.95
Mallorca
0.87
Espanyol
0.66
Osasuna is 0.47 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.26
Real Madrid
1.84
Villarreal
1.66
Real Sociedad
1.47
Sevilla
1.42
Granada CF
1.37
Atletico Madrid
1.34
Real Betis
1.26
Levante
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.21
Getafe
1.13
Athletic Club
1.08
Mallorca
1.05
Eibar
1.03
Celta Vigo
0.97
Alaves
0.89
Valladolid
0.84
Leganes
0.79
Espanyol
0.71
Osasuna is 0.13 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.66
Atletico Madrid
0.71
Sevilla
0.89
Getafe
0.97
Barcelona
1.00
Athletic Club
1.00
Valladolid
1.13
Granada CF
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.29
Villarreal
1.29
Leganes
1.34
Levante
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Osasuna
1.42
Eibar
1.47
Espanyol
1.53
Alaves
1.55
Real Betis
1.58
Mallorca
1.71
Osasuna is 0.71 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Osasuna
For 4.4 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 12.0 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 5.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Osasuna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
5.6
5.4
5.8
28.4
28.5
28.3
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
25.1
24.5
25.8
vs Similar (32)
9.4
9.6
9.2
5.8
5.7
5.9
28.7
28.9
28.5
vs Weaker (10)
10.6
8.0
12.6
5.3
4.0
6.6
30.3
31.0
29.8
% over line
47%
46%
48%
82%
80%
84%
90%
96%
84%
% under line
53%
54%
52%
18%
20%
16%
10%
4%
16%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.3
5.6
5.5
5.6
26.5
27.1
26.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
10.0
11.0
8.5
7.0
7.3
6.5
28.6
29.3
27.5
vs Weaker (45)
9.9
9.3
10.4
5.4
5.3
5.6
26.3
26.8
25.9
% over line
58%
52%
64%
72%
68%
76%
82%
80%
84%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
28%
32%
24%
18%
20%
16%
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Levante
10.7
Villarreal
10.2
Sevilla
10.1
Real Betis
10.1
Real Madrid
9.9
Atletico Madrid
9.9
Osasuna
9.6
Eibar
9.6
Celta Vigo
9.6
Mallorca
9.5
Valencia
9.5
Valladolid
9.4
Alaves
9.1
Real Sociedad
9.1
Granada CF
9.0
Espanyol
9.0
Athletic Club
8.7
Barcelona
8.6
Getafe
8.3
Leganes
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.8
Leganes
6.1
Sevilla
6.1
Granada CF
6.0
Mallorca
6.0
Real Betis
5.9
Espanyol
5.7
Osasuna
5.7
Atletico Madrid
5.6
Celta Vigo
5.5
Alaves
5.5
Athletic Club
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Valencia
5.4
Levante
5.4
Barcelona
5.3
Villarreal
5.1
Real Sociedad
4.9
Real Madrid
4.8
Eibar
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
32.2
Granada CF
30.9
Mallorca
29.2
Valladolid
28.9
Espanyol
28.7
Leganes
28.7
Osasuna
28.5
Alaves
28.4
Athletic Club
28.2
Real Betis
27.6
Sevilla
27.3
Celta Vigo
27.0
Real Sociedad
27.0
Atletico Madrid
26.5
Levante
26.2
Valencia
26.1
Real Madrid
26.1
Barcelona
25.8
Eibar
25.8
Villarreal
25.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.5%
Under 9.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.5%
Under 3.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
87.2%
Under 21.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osasuna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.53
0.87
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.62
0.45
0.64
0.10
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.59
0.52
0.92
0.54
0.29
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Osasuna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.87
0.47
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.25
1.25
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.33
0.73
0.18
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.70
0.33
0.69
0.15
0.71
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osasuna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Osasuna · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Budimir67%
Kike Barja33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Raúl García de Haro0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Herrera67%
Kike Barja67%
Jon Moncayola33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Jorge Herrando33%
Iker Muñoz33%
Lucas Torró0%
Rubén García0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rubén García33%
Ante Budimir33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
LEG (26)
€30m
VAL (29)
€26m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Osasuna's squad is €582m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€71m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Osasuna's attack is €265m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€25m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
Osasuna's midfield is €142m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€12m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
VAL (12)
€10m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Osasuna's defence is €174m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€33m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Granada CF
Getafe
Valencia
Athletic Club
Levante
Valladolid
Eibar
Real Betis
Alaves
Celta Vigo
Leganes
Mallorca
Espanyol