Osasuna are favoured to win this La Liga clash, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an Espanyol victory. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Osasuna’s home form shows they average 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similar opposition, while Espanyol, on the road, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.9% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (94.4% with a 1% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.9% with a 4% edge). Osasuna’s recent 2-game winning run and a 1-0 win over Getafe contrast with Espanyol’s 1-2 loss to Real Sociedad after two defeats, adding context to the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Osasuna win
44.9%
Avg Implied 48.6% · @ 1.94
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.99
SBO
1.96
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.39
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.59
Unibet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.54
Pinnacle
3.47
William Hil
3.40
Espanyol win
26.0%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 3.99
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.35
1xBet
4.26
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Osasuna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.53
1.07
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.00
1.50
1.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.00
1.55
0.82
1.10
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.50
1.07
1.21
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.62
0.50
1.75
1.25
3.50
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.09
1.30
1.00
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.8%
@ 1.36+2.4%
Under 1.5
28.2%
@ 3.07-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.15+0.5%
Under 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.70-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.5%
@ 3.83-1.0%
Under 3.5
76.5%
@ 1.24+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.92+1.8%
No
49.7%
@ 1.80-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
No
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.08+6.5%
1-0
10.9%@ 5.89+3.4%
0-0
9.8%@ 8.28+4.4%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.04+3.5%
2-0
8.7%@ 7.99+3.1%
0-1
7.5%@ 9.31+2.8%
1-2
6.5%@ 12.44+2.9%
2-2
4.7%@ 14.98+1.7%
Osasuna goals ↓
Espanyol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
7.5%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.0%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osasuna goals (down), columns = Espanyol goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Osasuna is 0.11 points worse than Espanyol in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Osasuna is 0.03 goals better than Espanyol in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Osasuna is 0.13 goals better than Espanyol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Osasuna is 4.5 percentage points better than Espanyol in terms of average possession (47% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Osasuna
For 4.6 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Espanyol
For 3.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Osasuna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.6
9.5
4.7
5.2
4.3
24.9
24.6
25.1
vs Stronger (12)
8.9
9.0
8.8
4.9
5.7
4.2
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Similar (36)
8.9
8.5
9.3
4.8
5.0
4.5
25.4
25.0
25.9
vs Weaker (2)
13.5
-
13.5
3.0
-
3.0
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
40%
30%
48%
70%
78%
63%
77%
78%
76%
% under line
60%
70%
52%
30%
22%
37%
23%
22%
24%
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.7
4.7
4.9
4.5
26.3
26.3
26.3
vs Stronger (14)
9.1
7.9
10.3
4.6
4.6
4.6
26.9
24.9
28.9
vs Similar (35)
9.6
9.8
9.5
4.9
5.0
4.7
26.1
26.9
25.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
48%
38%
58%
64%
68%
60%
77%
79%
75%
% under line
52%
62%
42%
36%
32%
40%
23%
21%
25%
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.3%
@ 1.80-5.7%
Under 9.5
54.7%
@ 1.87+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
Under
Unibet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.3%
Under 3.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.7%
Under 21.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Osasuna or Draw
74.5%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.23
Edge
-2.2%
45%
29%
26%
covers Osasuna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Osasuna or Espanyol
72.6%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.2%
45%
29%
26%
covers Osasuna + Espanyol
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Espanyol
53.0%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.86
Edge
+2.4%
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Espanyol
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.89
SBO
1.86
10Bet
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Osasuna over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
@ 1.22+3.2%
Under
20.6%
@ 3.90-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.93
10Bet
3.80
Osasuna over/under 1.5
Over
46.8%
@ 2.10+2.3%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.69-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Betfair
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Osasuna over/under 2.5
Over
21.1%
@ 4.51+0.4%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.18-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Osasuna over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
@ 11.30-0.8%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
11.70
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Espanyol over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
@ 1.53+6.4%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.35-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Espanyol over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
@ 3.67+5.0%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.25-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Espanyol over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 10.47+1.2%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.03-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Bet365
11.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Espanyol over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 23.25-1.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Osasuna, so a minus line means Osasuna give that many goals of a start and Espanyol receive them. At -1, Osasuna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Osasuna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Osasuna)
Osasuna -2
10.2%
@ 7.76-1.3%
Draw -2
14.6%
@ 5.37-2.1%
Espanyol +2
75.1%
@ 1.25+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
6.40
Draw
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.80
Away
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Osasuna)
Osasuna -1
24.9%
@ 3.48-1.0%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.48-3.8%
Espanyol +1
53.0%
@ 1.87+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.10
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Away
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Osasuna)
Osasuna +1
74.5%
@ 1.22+2.1%
Draw +1
15.2%
@ 5.05-2.3%
Espanyol -1
10.3%
@ 8.67+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
3.60
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
5.35
Handicap +2 (Osasuna)
Osasuna +2
89.7%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 13.00+0.1%
Espanyol -2
3.1%
@ 26.00-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osasuna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.48
0.55
0.36
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.60
0.33
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.43+3.9%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 2.70-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Under
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 3.13+2.6%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.34-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 8.14-0.7%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.06+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.70
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.3%
@ 1.89+0.2%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.82-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Osasuna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.3%
@ 5.89-1.5%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Betano
5.70
10Bet
5.25
Under
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Osasuna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 11.75-4.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Espanyol over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
@ 2.66+1.3%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.43-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.69
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.63
1xBet
2.63
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Espanyol over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
@ 10.17-1.8%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Espanyol over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 15.00-5.3%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Osasuna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.93
0.67
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.43
0.75
1.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.52
1.00
0.45
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
-
-
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Espanyol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Espanyol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.64
0.64
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.25
1.25
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.68
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Osasuna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.28+6.3%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 3.45-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
William Hil
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.6%
@ 2.32+4.2%
Under 1.5
55.4%
@ 1.57-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
10Bet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 5.33+0.0%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.14-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Osasuna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.2%
@ 1.64+4.5%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.15-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Osasuna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.2%
@ 4.20-1.8%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Osasuna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.1%
@ 9.25-4.1%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Espanyol over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.1%
@ 2.21+4.1%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.60-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Espanyol over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
@ 7.67-0.8%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Espanyol over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 12.50-5.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
+0.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-1.2%
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+0.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+0.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+0.8%
Over 2.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-1.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.10
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-0.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+1.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+3.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.28
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+6.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-0.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.2%
1.34
Unibet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+9.0%
Under 3.5
76.5%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.0%
Over 3.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.1%
1.25
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
+3.4%
Home or Draw
74.5%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-2.2%
Home +1 handicap
74.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+2.1%
Home or Away
72.6%
1.29
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
-0.2%
Over 1.5
71.8%
1.36
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+2.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Osasuna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Budimir67%
Kike Barja33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Raúl García de Haro0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Herrera67%
Kike Barja67%
Jon Moncayola33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Jorge Herrando33%
Iker Muñoz33%
Lucas Torró0%
Rubén García0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Rubén García0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Ante Budimir0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rubén García33%
Ante Budimir33%
Raúl García de Haro33%
Lucas Torró0%
Sergio Herrera0%
Jon Moncayola0%
Kike Barja0%
Alejandro Catena0%
Moi Gómez0%
Aimar Oroz0%
Abel Bretones0%
Jorge Herrando0%
Iker Muñoz0%
Jonathan Dubasin0%
Iñigo Arguibide0%
Espanyol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roberto Fernández67%
Tyrhys Dolan33%
Álex Calatrava33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Urko González67%
Álex Calatrava67%
Javier Hernández33%
Roger Hinojo33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Hernández100%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Edu Expósito0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Edu Expósito33%
Marko Dmitrović0%
Unai Núñez0%
Urko González0%
Tyrhys Dolan0%
Álex Calatrava0%
Omar El Hilali0%
Roberto Fernández0%
Javier Hernández0%
Roger Hinojo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Osasuna's squad is €48m less valuable than Espanyol's (€71m vs €119m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Osasuna's attack is €14m less valuable than Espanyol's (€25m vs €39m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Osasuna's midfield is €19m less valuable than Espanyol's (€12m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Osasuna's defence is €15m less valuable than Espanyol's (€33m vs €48m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga