Pythia gives Osters IF a 35% win probability against Varbergs BoIS FC in the Sweden: Superettan on 2026-07-27, with 24% for the draw and 40% for Varbergs BoIS FC. The model estimates around 3.5 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (89%), Over 1.5 (87%), Under 5.5 cards (87%), Over 21.5 fouls (78%).
Results analysis
Osters IF finished 3-0 against Varbergs BoIS FC (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 35% home win, 24% draw and 40% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (87%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Osters IF win✓ Hit
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Osters IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.73
1.44
1.56
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.29
0.50
2.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.62
1.38
1.25
1.38
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
1.43
1.83
1.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.43
1.67
1.20
1.87
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.76
1.32
1.57
1.14
2.00
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Osters IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.3%
Under 2.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.6%
Under 3.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.0%
0-2
5.0%
0-1
4.7%
3-1
4.4%
Osters IF goals ↓
Varbergs BoIS FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.7%
5.0%
3.0%
1.4%
1
4.3%
10%
8.4%
5.0%
2.3%
2
4.4%
7.8%
7.0%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.4%
4.4%
3.9%
2.3%
1.1%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osters IF goals (down), columns = Varbergs BoIS FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.16
Falkenbergs FF
1.84
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
Ostersunds FK
1.74
Landskrona BoIS
1.53
United Nordic
1.53
Osters IF
1.53
Oddevold
1.37
Sandviken
1.32
Helsingborg
1.32
Ljungskile SK
1.21
Norrby IF
1.16
IK brage
1.11
IFK Varnamo
0.95
Orebro SK
0.84
GIF Sundsvall
0.53
Osters IF is 0.26 points worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.89
IFK Norrkoping
1.89
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.79
IK brage
1.74
Sandviken
1.68
Helsingborg
1.68
Oddevold
1.58
Osters IF
1.58
Ostersunds FK
1.53
United Nordic
1.53
Ljungskile SK
1.42
Landskrona BoIS
1.32
Norrby IF
1.26
IFK Varnamo
1.21
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.74
Osters IF is 0.21 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.58
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.16
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.26
Norrby IF
1.37
United Nordic
1.37
Ljungskile SK
1.42
Oddevold
1.42
Falkenbergs FF
1.42
Sandviken
1.53
Osters IF
1.53
Orebro SK
1.63
IK brage
1.89
IFK Varnamo
1.95
Helsingborg
1.95
GIF Sundsvall
2.26
Osters IF is 0.26 goals worse than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
58%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
Ostersunds FK
53%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ljungskile SK
51%
Osters IF
50%
United Nordic
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Oddevold
50%
Orebro SK
50%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
45%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Osters IF is 3.3 percentage points better than Varbergs BoIS FC in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Osters IF
For 5.1 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 9.9 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Varbergs BoIS FC
For 4.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Osters IF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.5
12.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
24.5
24.4
24.6
vs Stronger (14)
12.2
11.7
12.7
3.4
4.3
2.4
24.4
25.9
22.9
vs Similar (24)
12.2
11.5
12.7
3.5
3.1
3.8
25.8
24.9
26.6
vs Weaker (12)
10.2
11.2
7.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
21.0
20.0
22.5
% over line
75%
76%
74%
40%
40%
40%
79%
71%
88%
% under line
25%
24%
26%
60%
60%
60%
21%
29%
12%
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.1
2.0
1.8
2.1
27.7
27.9
27.5
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
12.0
8.7
2.4
3.0
2.0
28.0
28.5
27.5
vs Similar (41)
9.0
8.8
9.3
2.0
1.7
2.3
27.6
27.7
27.6
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
50%
43%
24%
23%
25%
95%
89%
100%
% under line
54%
50%
57%
76%
77%
75%
5%
11%
0%
This opponent (Osters IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Orebro SK
9.4
Ostersunds FK
9.2
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
4.0
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.5
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.1
Oddevold
2.9
Falkenbergs FF
2.8
United Nordic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Osters IF
25.4
Ostersunds FK
25.3
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.6%
Under 3.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.4%
Under 21.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osters IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.75
0.50
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.50
0.50
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.43
1.17
0.50
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Varbergs BoIS FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Varbergs BoIS FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.44
0.79
0.29
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Osters IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osters IF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osters IF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osters IF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varbergs BoIS FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (22)
€4m
SAN (20)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
GS (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Osters IF's squad is €1m less valuable than Varbergs BoIS FC's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
IB (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Osters IF and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
GS (4)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Osters IF and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Osters IF and Varbergs BoIS FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →