PythiaFootballBETA
Ostersunds FK, on a 2-game winning run, hosts Osters IF, which has struggled following two straight defeats. The home side has been impressive at home, scoring an average of 1.78 goals and conceding 1.11 per match against similar opponents. In contrast, Osters IF has averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.5 conceded while playing away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 42% chance of Ostersunds FK taking the three points. The draw is seen as a 24% possibility, while an away win for Osters IF is estimated at 34%. The expected total number of goals is 3.5, with the most likely score being 1-1, but the model's most likely outcome is a home win.
The model's selection is the Home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals and Under 21.5 fouls, with the latter having a high probability of 97.7%. The draw percentage is 24%, the home win percentage is 42%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
The win extends Ostersunds FK's 2-game winning run, following a 1-0 victory over Osters IF, a result that defied expectations with a total of just 1 goal. The model's prediction of a home win was correct, with the model's selection initially favored at 42%. However, the actual score was well off the predicted mark, with the expected total goals at 3.5. The model's selection, home win, was the predicted outcome. The model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals missed, with only an 86.8% probability, while the actual result was a low-scoring 1-0.
Ostersunds FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.79 | 1.21 | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.39 | 1.25 | 1.85 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Osters IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.53 | 1.54 | 2.62 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 3.75 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.93 | 1.47 | 1.67 | 2.44 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Osters IF goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 10% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Ostersunds FKOsters IFOstersunds FK| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 24.5 | 22.6 | 26.2 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 6.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (46) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 24.4 | 22.2 | 26.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 36% | 46% | 18% | 17% | 19% | 79% | 67% | 90% |
| % under line | 58% | 64% | 54% | 82% | 83% | 81% | 21% | 33% | 10% |
Osters IF| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.9 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 24.7 | 24.6 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 10.2 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 23.1 | 25.2 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (39) | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 25.2 | 24.4 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 79% | 80% | 78% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 81% | 75% | 88% |
| % under line | 21% | 20% | 22% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 19% | 25% | 12% |
Ostersunds FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Osters IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.85 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Ostersunds FK| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Osters IF| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 86.8% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | +7.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 84.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.2% | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 1.52 | +14.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 10/08/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/06/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/11/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/04/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/08/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 16/07/22 | H | 1-1 |
Ostersunds FK| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/06/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-4 |
Osters IF| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/06/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/06/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 09/06/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  IFK Norrkoping | 20 | 44 | 70% | 2.2 | 38 | 12 | +26 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 20% | 9.4 | 44% | 3.4 | 56% | 27.8 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 55% |
| 2 |  Falkenbergs FF | 20 | 35 | 50% | 1.8 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 3.3 | 90% | 70% | 40% | 9.1 | 44% | 1.8 | 11% | 20.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 |  Varbergs BoIS FC | 19 | 34 | 53% | 1.8 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 3.1 | 79% | 68% | 42% | 7.8 | 36% | 3.9 | 64% | 30.8 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 20 | 34 | 45% | 1.7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 25% | 8.7 | 44% | 3.3 | 56% | 25.7 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 5 |  United Nordic | 20 | 32 | 40% | 1.6 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 2.9 | 85% | 45% | 35% | 9.1 | 57% | 2.7 | 29% | 29.8 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 |  Landskrona BoIS | 20 | 30 | 40% | 1.5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 10.1 | 43% | 3.7 | 43% | 28.2 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 58% |
| 7 |  Oddevold | 20 | 29 | 35% | 1.4 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 3.0 | 75% | 60% | 45% | 10.1 | 50% | 2.4 | 22% | 25.4 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 8 | Osters IF | 19 | 29 | 47% | 1.5 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 3.1 | 74% | 68% | 42% | 11.8 | 89% | 2.9 | 33% | 24.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Sandviken | 20 | 26 | 35% | 1.3 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 3.1 | 75% | 65% | 40% | 9.6 | 33% | 2.4 | 11% | 23.0 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 10 |  Helsingborg | 20 | 25 | 35% | 1.2 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 3.6 | 95% | 70% | 50% | 9.8 | 75% | 5.0 | 80% | 26.0 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 11 |  Ljungskile SK | 20 | 24 | 30% | 1.2 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 2.7 | 65% | 50% | 40% | 10.2 | 56% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.6 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 12 |  Norrby IF | 20 | 23 | 20% | 1.1 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 2.6 | 80% | 45% | 35% | 7.3 | 33% | 2.3 | 33% | 21.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 13 |  IK brage | 20 | 21 | 25% | 1.1 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 3.6 | 80% | 75% | 50% | 8.8 | 38% | 4.2 | 67% | 27.3 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 48% |
| 14 |  IFK Varnamo | 20 | 19 | 25% | 0.9 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 3.1 | 75% | 60% | 45% | 8.2 | 22% | 2.9 | 22% | 24.3 | 67% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 53% |
| 15 |  Orebro SK | 19 | 16 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 2.6 | 68% | 47% | 32% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.0 | 38% | 23.3 | 67% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 16 |  GIF Sundsvall | 19 | 10 | 16% | 0.5 | 14 | 43 | -29 | 3.0 | 74% | 63% | 37% | 9.8 | 67% | 2.6 | 22% | 20.5 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 41% |