Pafos is the clear favourite, the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win. Their recent 3-0 victory over Karmiotissa and the fact that they are playing at home against an opponent of similar strength give the model confidence. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance, reflecting Pafos’ 1.62 goals per game at home and AEK Larnaca’s 0.7 away goals.
Pafos scores about 1.62 goals and concedes 1.25 at home, while AEK Larnaca averages 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on the road. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (90.4%), Over 2.5 cards (87.5%), Over 21.5 fouls (81.1%), Under 11.5 corners (77.7%), and Over 3.5 cards (73.4%). The only pick that missed was Over 1.5 (79.6%). The probabilities for the match result are 62% home win, 23% draw, and 15% away win.
Results analysis
The draw was a shock to the pre-match favourite, Pafos, who had been riding a win and were tipped to win at 62%. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished 0-0, a result that defied the 62% home-win probability. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit, Over 2.5 cards hit, Over 21.5 fouls hit, Over 1.5 missed, Under 11.5 corners hit, and Over 3.5 cards hit. Each probability was reported as a percentage: 90.4%, 87.5%, 81.1%, 79.6%, 77.7% and 73.4% respectively. The outcome left the model’s predictions largely off the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pafos win✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pafos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.97
2.12
1.06
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
1.06
1.62
1.25
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.85
2.62
0.88
1.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.60
1.33
0.93
1.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
1.37
1.22
0.89
0.70
1.80
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
1.78
2.60
2.00
1.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.9%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
6.6%
0-0 ✓
6.5%
2-2
4.4%
Pafos goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.9%
2.2%
0.7%
0.1%
1
10%
11%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.4%
6.6%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.7%
3.3%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pafos goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
Pafos is 0.31 points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
Pafos is 0.08 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
Pafos is 0.06 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
Pafos is 3.9 percentage points better than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pafos
For 5.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 6.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (42)
8.7
8.3
9.2
3.7
3.9
3.5
26.6
25.5
27.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.6
8.2
8.9
4.5
5.4
3.8
26.2
25.8
26.6
vs Weaker (20)
8.8
8.3
9.6
2.9
2.5
3.2
27.2
25.3
29.8
% over line
32%
20%
46%
45%
48%
43%
82%
87%
77%
% under line
68%
80%
54%
55%
52%
57%
18%
13%
23%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.9
4.2
4.6
3.7
27.0
27.8
26.2
vs Stronger (6)
7.7
10.7
4.7
4.8
6.3
3.3
26.3
30.0
22.7
vs Similar (27)
8.5
7.5
9.6
4.0
4.6
3.4
27.1
28.2
25.8
vs Weaker (17)
10.6
12.5
9.3
4.2
4.1
4.2
27.1
25.8
27.9
% over line
43%
52%
35%
62%
68%
56%
72%
86%
59%
% under line
57%
48%
65%
38%
32%
44%
28%
14%
41%
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
12.8
Anorthosis
9.8
Karmiotissa
9.7
Ethnikos Achna
9.6
Nea Salamis
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Aris
9.3
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Omonia Nicosia
9.1
AEL
9.1
Doxa
8.9
Pafos
8.7
Apoel Nicosia
8.5
AE Zakakiou
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ethnikos Achna
5.6
Pafos
5.6
Apoel Nicosia
5.5
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Doxa
5.0
Othellos
5.0
AE Zakakiou
5.0
Nea Salamis
4.9
Aris
4.8
AEK Larnaca
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
AEL
4.6
Anorthosis
4.5
Karmiotissa
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
30.2
Othellos
28.8
Doxa
27.9
AEL
27.8
Ethnikos Achna
27.6
Anorthosis
27.5
Nea Salamis
27.3
AEK Larnaca
27.2
AE Zakakiou
27.0
Pafos
26.6
Apollon Limassol
26.2
Aris
25.9
Karmiotissa
25.8
Omonia Nicosia
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.7%
Under 9.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.4%
Under 3.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.88
0.81
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.53
0.62
1.00
0.22
0.11
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.69
1.12
0.62
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.93
0.93
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.53
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.22
2.00
1.40
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.25
0.25
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.53
1.00
0.25
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.15
1.50
0.25
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.40
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.84
0.78
0.33
0.20
1.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.56
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pafos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jairo da Silva33%
Adrian Rus25%
Muamer Tanković20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrian Rus50%
Jairo da Silva33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
Pêpê25%
Ivica Ivušić20%
Petar Bočkaj20%
Josef Kvida20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Onni Valakari0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
Muamer Tanković0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Twumasi33%
Bruno20%
Muamer Tanković20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jairo da Silva0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Muamer Tanković40%
Jairo da Silva33%
Patrick Twumasi33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje Miličević25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ádám Gyurcsó67%
Hrvoje Miličević50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
Ádám Gyurcsó33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Pafos's squad is €13m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€28m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Pafos's attack is €7m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€14m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Pafos's midfield is €5m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Pafos and AEK Larnaca have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →