Pafos are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a 44% chance of a win, a 31% draw probability and a 25% chance for AEK Larnaca to triumph. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely total of two goals carries a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. Pafos, who have scored an average of 0.62 goals and conceded 0.88 at home against similarly ranked opponents, are looking to improve on a recent 3-0 win over Karmiotissa. AEK Larnaca, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded away, are riding a three-game winning streak that included a 3-1 victory over Apoel Nicosia. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 84.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.5%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as AEK Larnaca snatched a 1-0 away win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite for a Pafos victory. The model had given the home side a 44% chance to win, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away team’s triumph. In the suggested selections, every pick hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 84.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 84.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 80.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.5%. The match also extended Pafos’ recent form note of a win, while AEK Larnaca continued its three-game winning streak. The model’s overall prediction missed its mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pafos win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pafos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.80
1.69
0.69
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
0.62
0.88
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
2.50
0.75
2.75
0.50
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
2.00
1.20
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.12
1.12
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
1.07
3.00
1.29
1.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.6%
Pafos goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.5%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.0%
8.5%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.0%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pafos goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
Pafos is 0.31 points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
Pafos is 0.08 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
Pafos is 0.06 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
Pafos is 3.9 percentage points better than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (56% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pafos
For 5.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 6.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.9
8.3
4.9
4.6
5.3
25.3
24.3
26.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
8.9
9.1
8.6
5.3
5.7
4.8
25.2
24.8
25.7
vs Weaker (25)
8.3
8.7
8.0
4.6
3.5
5.8
25.3
23.7
26.7
% over line
35%
42%
27%
66%
62%
71%
76%
74%
77%
% under line
65%
58%
73%
34%
38%
29%
24%
26%
23%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.3
4.7
5.3
4.0
25.9
26.7
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
14.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
18.5
20.0
17.0
vs Similar (30)
9.4
8.7
10.1
4.8
5.5
4.1
27.4
28.7
26.0
vs Weaker (18)
10.2
11.6
8.8
4.8
5.3
4.2
24.2
24.1
24.3
% over line
50%
56%
44%
68%
76%
60%
76%
84%
67%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
32%
24%
40%
24%
16%
33%
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
9.9
AE Zakakiou
9.7
AEK Larnaca
9.6
Omonia Nicosia
9.6
Apollon Limassol
9.5
AEL
9.5
Aris
9.3
Nea Salamis
9.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.0
Anorthosis
9.0
Karmiotissa
8.9
Doxa
8.8
Pafos
8.6
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.5
Ethnikos Achna
5.4
Apoel Nicosia
5.3
AE Zakakiou
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.3
Pafos
5.3
Anorthosis
5.2
Othellos
5.0
Nea Salamis
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.9
Doxa
4.8
AEK Larnaca
4.8
AEL
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.8
Anorthosis
29.1
Doxa
27.1
AE Zakakiou
26.7
AEL
26.6
Karmiotissa
26.6
Ethnikos Achna
26.3
Apollon Limassol
25.9
AEK Larnaca
25.9
Aris
25.3
Pafos
25.3
Nea Salamis
25.3
Othellos
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.50
0.12
0.75
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.80
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.44
0.25
0.62
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.64
1.71
1.00
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
1.19
0.12
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.36
0.50
0.12
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.56
0.25
1.88
0.12
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
1.07
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.56
0.88
0.50
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.43
1.29
0.29
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pafos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jairo da Silva33%
Adrian Rus25%
Muamer Tanković20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrian Rus50%
Jairo da Silva33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
Pêpê25%
Ivica Ivušić20%
Petar Bočkaj20%
Josef Kvida20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Onni Valakari0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
Muamer Tanković0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Twumasi33%
Bruno20%
Muamer Tanković20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jairo da Silva0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Muamer Tanković40%
Jairo da Silva33%
Patrick Twumasi33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Petar Bočkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
Pêpê0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Jajá0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje Miličević25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Sánchez33%
Ángel García33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
Ádám Gyurcsó0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ádám Gyurcsó67%
Hrvoje Miličević50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
Ádám Gyurcsó33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo Sánchez0%
Ángel García0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan Pirić0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje Miličević0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Pafos's squad is €13m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€28m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Pafos's attack is €7m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€14m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Pafos's midfield is €5m more valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Pafos and AEK Larnaca have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Apoel Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Aris
AEL
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou