This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
2.00
1.53
1.27
1.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.80
0.67
2.33
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (22)
2.00
1.50
2.55
1.45
1.45
1.55
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
1-1
10.9%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.8%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.1%
Pafos goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.0%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.8%
6.5%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.8%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pafos goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Pafos is 1.10 points better than AEL in terms of average points per game (2.28 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Pafos is 0.71 goals better than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Pafos is 1.02 goals better than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Pafos is 11.5 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (56% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pafos
For 6.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 6.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 14.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
9.4
6.7
3.2
3.2
3.3
25.7
25.7
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
8.6
9.8
6.9
3.3
3.2
3.5
26.3
25.9
26.9
vs Weaker (18)
7.4
8.4
6.4
3.1
3.2
2.9
24.4
25.2
23.6
% over line
27%
47%
0%
46%
44%
48%
83%
82%
85%
% under line
73%
53%
100%
54%
56%
52%
17%
18%
15%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.2
2.5
2.0
2.9
25.6
24.6
26.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.2
2.0
4.5
24.8
23.2
26.0
vs Similar (33)
10.8
11.3
10.1
2.4
2.1
2.6
25.9
25.0
27.0
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
67%
64%
69%
40%
32%
48%
81%
79%
85%
% under line
33%
36%
31%
60%
68%
52%
19%
21%
15%
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.9
Nea Salamis
10.1
AEL
9.8
Omonia Aradippou
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.5
Apoel Nicosia
9.4
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Aris
9.3
Enosis
9.1
Anorthosis
8.9
Pafos
8.6
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
7.5
Omonia Aradippou
7.5
Apoel Nicosia
5.5
Aris
5.4
Anorthosis
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Pafos
5.2
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
AEL
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.0
Anorthosis
28.7
Enosis
28.5
Omonia 29is Maiou
27.5
AEL
26.9
Karmiotissa
26.6
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Aris
25.8
Pafos
25.8
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.3
Omonia Aradippou
25.2
Nea Salamis
25.1
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.3%
Under 9.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.7%
Under 3.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.1%
Under 21.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.93
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.30
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.40
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.67
1.18
0.36
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
0.93
0.47
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.64
0.55
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.10
1.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.00
1.13
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.76
1.36
1.09
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pafos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Correia26%
Anderson Silva23%
David Goldar22%
Muamer Tanković20%
Jairo da Silva19%
Mislav Oršić14%
Jajá14%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Léo Natel9%
Moustapha Name9%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Jonathan Silva6%
Derrick Luckassen5%
Bruno4%
Ivan Šunjić0%
Ken Sema0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Domingos Quina0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Pêpê0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Derrick Luckassen42%
Jonathan Silva33%
João Correia30%
Kostas Pileas30%
Mehdi Boukamir29%
Muamer Tanković28%
Moustapha Name27%
Ivan Šunjić25%
Zvonimir Šarlija22%
Domingos Quina21%
Bruno20%
Pêpê17%
Jairo da Silva15%
David Goldar13%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Ken Sema11%
Léo Natel9%
Jajá9%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Anderson Silva4%
Mislav Oršić0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Marios Ilia0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Muamer Tanković20%
Jonathan Silva17%
Jairo da Silva15%
Jajá14%
Pêpê12%
Anderson Silva12%
Ken Sema11%
Ivan Šunjić8%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Bruno8%
Vlad Dragomir8%
Domingos Quina5%
Mislav Oršić0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Léo Natel0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Moustapha Name0%
Derrick Luckassen0%
Neofytos Michael0%
João Correia0%
David Goldar0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Muamer Tanković32%
Mislav Oršić29%
Jajá18%
Jairo da Silva15%
João Correia13%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Anderson Silva12%
David Goldar4%
Ivan Šunjić4%
Ken Sema0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Léo Natel0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Domingos Quina0%
Moustapha Name0%
Derrick Luckassen0%
Bruno0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Pêpê0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Pafos's squad is €20m more valuable than AEL's (€28m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Pafos's attack is €10m more valuable than AEL's (€14m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Pafos's midfield is €6m more valuable than AEL's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Pafos's defence is €4m more valuable than AEL's (€7m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou