This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.90
1.64
0.71
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.14
1.00
0.83
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (14)
2.79
0.50
2.29
0.29
3.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Pafos goals ↓
Aris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.4%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.1%
13%
7.5%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.1%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.7%
4.7%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pafos goals (down), columns = Aris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Pafos is 0.19 points better than Aris in terms of average points per game (2.28 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Pafos is 0.03 goals better than Aris in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Pafos is 0.28 goals better than Aris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Pafos is 10.5 percentage points better than Aris in terms of average possession (56% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pafos
For 4.8 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
For 5.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
9.4
7.2
3.8
3.5
4.0
25.6
25.3
25.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
8.6
9.3
7.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
27.1
26.8
27.5
vs Weaker (21)
8.1
9.5
6.8
4.0
3.3
4.8
23.9
23.1
24.6
% over line
34%
56%
12%
56%
52%
60%
79%
76%
82%
% under line
66%
44%
88%
44%
48%
40%
21%
24%
18%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.7
10.2
4.6
4.2
5.0
25.7
24.0
27.7
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
9.0
11.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (23)
9.2
8.8
9.7
4.9
4.2
5.7
27.2
24.5
30.6
vs Weaker (21)
9.4
8.5
10.4
4.2
4.0
4.5
24.6
23.0
26.2
% over line
48%
36%
60%
62%
64%
60%
79%
68%
90%
% under line
52%
64%
40%
38%
36%
40%
21%
32%
10%
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.4
Nea Salamis
9.8
AEL
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Apoel Nicosia
9.5
Aris
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Anorthosis
8.9
Enosis
8.8
Pafos
8.4
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
Omonia Aradippou
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
10.0
Aris
5.5
Apoel Nicosia
5.4
Anorthosis
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Pafos
5.1
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
AEL
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.9
Anorthosis
29.2
Enosis
28.5
Omonia Aradippou
27.0
AEL
26.8
Karmiotissa
26.7
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Aris
25.6
Pafos
25.5
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.1
Nea Salamis
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.80
0.56
0.44
0.36
1.09
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.50
1.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.21
0.86
0.14
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.50
0.56
0.67
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.50
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.07
0.64
0.00
0.33
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
0.29
1.43
0.14
2.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pafos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Correia26%
Anderson Silva23%
David Goldar22%
Muamer Tanković20%
Jairo da Silva19%
Mislav Oršić14%
Jajá14%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Léo Natel9%
Moustapha Name9%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Jonathan Silva6%
Derrick Luckassen5%
Bruno4%
Ivan Šunjić0%
Ken Sema0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Domingos Quina0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Pêpê0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Derrick Luckassen42%
Jonathan Silva33%
João Correia30%
Kostas Pileas30%
Mehdi Boukamir29%
Muamer Tanković28%
Moustapha Name27%
Ivan Šunjić25%
Zvonimir Šarlija22%
Domingos Quina21%
Bruno20%
Pêpê17%
Jairo da Silva15%
David Goldar13%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Ken Sema11%
Léo Natel9%
Jajá9%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Anderson Silva4%
Mislav Oršić0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Marios Ilia0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Muamer Tanković20%
Jonathan Silva17%
Jairo da Silva15%
Jajá14%
Pêpê12%
Anderson Silva12%
Ken Sema11%
Ivan Šunjić8%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Bruno8%
Vlad Dragomir8%
Domingos Quina5%
Mislav Oršić0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Léo Natel0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Moustapha Name0%
Derrick Luckassen0%
Neofytos Michael0%
João Correia0%
David Goldar0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Muamer Tanković32%
Mislav Oršić29%
Jajá18%
Jairo da Silva15%
João Correia13%
Vlad Dragomir12%
Anderson Silva12%
David Goldar4%
Ivan Šunjić4%
Ken Sema0%
Ivica Ivušić0%
Zvonimir Šarlija0%
Léo Natel0%
Marios Ilia0%
Kostas Pileas0%
Domingos Quina0%
Moustapha Name0%
Derrick Luckassen0%
Bruno0%
Neofytos Michael0%
Pêpê0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Mehdi Boukamir0%
Rafael Pontelo0%
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Nikolić40%
Yannick Gomis33%
Mihlali Mayambela17%
Karol Struski17%
Vaná0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Eric Boakye0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Opoku Sarfo67%
Giorgi Kvilitaia50%
Leo Bengtsson50%
Jaden Montnor50%
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Connor Goldson33%
Anderson Correia25%
Steeve Yago20%
Veljko Nikolić20%
Vaná17%
Yannick Gomis17%
Eric Boakye17%
Karol Struski17%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Anderson Correia25%
Edi Semedo25%
Vaná0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Giorgi Kvilitaia25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
Vaná0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Pafos's squad is €17m more valuable than Aris's (€28m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Pafos's attack is €11m more valuable than Aris's (€14m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Pafos's midfield is €5m more valuable than Aris's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Pafos's defence is €2m more valuable than Aris's (€7m vs €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
AEL
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou