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Pafos vs Aris Result & Analysis

Date: 10/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Pafos
Pafos
Vs
53%
27%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aris
Aris
Cyprus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Pafos a 53% win probability against Aris in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-10, with 27% for the draw and 20% for Aris. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (92%), Over 2.5 cards (85%), Over 21.5 fouls (84%), Under 11.5 corners (78%).

Results analysis

Pafos finished 2-0 against Aris (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 53% home win, 27% draw and 20% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (74%), Under 3.5 (74%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pafos win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aris win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PafosPafos

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D70W40W11D02L11D11D33D12L02LA·ARI01/03H·KRA07/03A·AKR14/03H·APO22/03A·OMO04/04A·ARI14/04H·AEK18/04A·APO26/04A·APO03/05H·OMO06/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.202.000.931.331.47
vs Stronger (4)1.501.503.001.500.001.50
vs Similar (14)1.291.641.251.381.332.00
vs Weaker (12)2.170.582.800.001.711.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArisAris

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D40W12L22D12L11D30W02L03L10WH·PAF01/03A·ENO08/03H·APO15/03H·OMO21/03A·APO05/04H·PAF14/04H·APO18/04A·AEK25/04A·OMO02/05H·APO06/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.172.201.071.131.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.251.621.751.500.751.75
vs Weaker (14)2.140.642.710.571.570.71
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-0 ✓
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
5.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.5%
Pafos goals ↓
Aris goals →
01234
08.6%5.9%3.3%1.0%0.2%
111%13%5.5%1.7%0.4%
210%9.6%4.5%1.4%0.3%
35.6%5.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
42.3%2.2%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pafos goals (down), columns = Aris goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Akritas
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
0.15
Pafos is 0.31 points better than Aris in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Akritas
0.94
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Enosis
0.33
Pafos is 0.14 goals better than Aris in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Aris
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.33
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
AEL
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Akritas
1.76
Enosis
2.42
Pafos is 0.19 goals better than Aris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Ethnikos Achna
48%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Akritas
44%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Enosis
41%
Pafos is 3.6 percentage points better than Aris in terms of average possession (55% vs 52%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

PafosPafos

For 5.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.4

🚩 Corners

1604342665228124751214223761271016121365H·OMOA·APOH·AEKA·OMOH·APOA·AKRH·KRAA·ARIH·ANOA·AEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

90244331361112111122436749232247H·OMOA·APOH·AEKA·OMOH·APOA·AKRH·KRAA·ARIH·ANOA·AEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.8 · Total 24.5

⚠️ Fouls

330189121215913201110812106111515824727242433212016262331H·OMOA·APOH·AEKA·OMOH·APOA·AKRH·KRAA·ARIH·ANOA·AEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArisAris

For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

140863381269511252541024514698141379129H·APOH·APOA·APOH·OMOH·APOH·PAFA·AKRA·AELA·APOA·PAF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1

🟨 Cards

80151232224411622153226354828384H·APOH·APOA·APOH·OMOH·APOH·PAFA·AKRA·AELA·APOA·PAF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.8

⚠️ Fouls

340125713178178151015111618159171271617202525252634242923H·APOH·APOA·APOH·OMOH·APOH·PAFA·AKRA·AELA·APOA·PAF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PafosPafos

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.98.911.52.32.32.224.524.225.0
vs Stronger (8)11.58.015.04.04.04.024.026.022.0
vs Similar (26)9.09.09.02.02.21.825.625.625.8
vs Weaker (16)9.69.410.01.91.82.023.520.828.0
% over line48%44%55%32%36%28%67%69%64%
% under line52%56%45%68%64%72%33%31%36%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArisAris

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.99.710.01.51.31.726.924.629.3
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (30)10.29.710.82.01.82.126.524.029.4
vs Weaker (18)8.710.08.00.90.71.228.728.029.0
% over line50%57%43%22%19%25%86%71%100%
% under line50%43%57%78%81%75%14%29%0%
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.2
Apoel Nicosia
10.0
Aris
9.7
Krasava Ypsonas
9.6
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Akritas
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.3
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Enosis
9.0
Anorthosis
8.7
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.8
AEL
4.8
Pafos
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
Olympiakos
4.4
Akritas
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Enosis
28.2
Olympiakos
27.8
Apoel Nicosia
27.6
AEL
27.6
Ethnikos Achna
27.2
Aris
26.2
AEK Larnaca
26.1
Pafos
25.6
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.9
Apollon Limassol
24.8
Akritas
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.7%
Under 9.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.0%
Under 21.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PafosPafos

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W10W11D02L01L10W12L12L00DA·ARI01/03H·KRA07/03A·AKR14/03H·APO22/03A·OMO04/04A·ARI14/04H·AEK18/04A·APO26/04A·APO03/05H·OMO06/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.930.470.530.60
vs Stronger (4)0.500.751.001.500.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.860.500.500.501.33
vs Weaker (12)1.080.081.600.000.710.14
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArisAris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L02L01L10W30W01L02L00DH·PAF01/03A·ENO08/03H·APO15/03H·OMO21/03A·APO05/04H·PAF14/04H·APO18/04A·AEK25/04A·OMO02/05H·APO06/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.930.670.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.940.750.880.381.00
vs Weaker (14)0.930.291.140.430.710.14
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls92.2%--------
Over 2.5 cards85.2%--------
Over 21.5 fouls84.0%--------
Under 11.5 corners78.5%--------
Over 1.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls72.1%--------

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
ON (37)
€19m
AL (30)
€16m
AN (30)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
Pafos's squad is €17m more valuable than Aris's (€28m vs €11m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
ON (13)
€8m
AN (12)
€8m
AL (10)
€7m
ARI (8)
€3m
Pafos's attack is €11m more valuable than Aris's (€14m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (6)
€4m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (6)
€2m
Pafos's midfield is €5m more valuable than Aris's (€8m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
ON (18)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
Pafos's defence is €2m more valuable than Aris's (€7m vs €5m).

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Pafos vs Aris · H/A from PAF
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/26AAris Vs PAF1-1
01/03/26AAris Vs PAF2-2
21/11/25HPAF Vs Aris2-1
04/05/25HPAF Vs Aris4-0
02/04/25AAris Vs PAF0-1
11/01/25AAris Vs PAF1-0
29/09/24HPAF Vs Aris1-1
28/04/24AAris Vs PAF1-1

PafosPafos

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HPAF Vs Omonia Nicosia0-2
03/05/26AApollon Limassol Vs PAF2-1
26/04/26AApoel Nicosia Vs PAF3-3
18/04/26HPAF Vs AEK Larnaca1-1
14/04/26AAris Vs PAF1-1
04/04/26AOmonia Nicosia Vs PAF2-0
22/03/26HPAF Vs Apollon Limassol1-1
14/03/26AAkritas Vs PAF0-4
07/03/26HPAF Vs Krasava Ypsonas7-0
01/03/26AAris Vs PAF2-2

ArisAris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26HARI Vs Apoel Nicosia1-0
02/05/26AOmonia Nicosia Vs ARI3-0
25/04/26AAEK Larnaca Vs ARI2-0
18/04/26HARI Vs Apollon Limassol3-0
14/04/26HARI Vs Pafos1-1
05/04/26AApoel Nicosia Vs ARI2-1
21/03/26HARI Vs Omonia Nicosia2-2
15/03/26HARI Vs Apoel Nicosia1-2
08/03/26AEnosis Vs ARI0-4
01/03/26HARI Vs Pafos2-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Pafos
Pafos
Cyprus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL1.70
HomeDWDDL1.92
AwayWLDDL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals2.682.922.44
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.662.001.32
Conceded1.020.921.12
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet42%48%36%
Corners9.938.8811.45
Cards4.193.625.00
Aris
Aris
Cyprus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.62
HomeLDDWW2.08
AwayDWLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%62%29%
AVG goals2.923.192.62
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %34%46%21%
Scored1.722.191.21
Conceded1.201.001.42
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet38%46%29%
Corners9.869.7110.00
Cards5.435.005.86

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia3687
75%
2.4
8824+64
3.1
89%
56%
33%
7.9
27%
4.7
73%
25.8
82%
19
8472.40.7
51%
2AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca3669
56%
1.9
6233+29
2.6
78%
42%
22%
9.7
55%
5.2
73%
25.4
64%
16
7271.70.9
49%
3Apollon LimassolApollon Limassol3667
56%
1.9
5241+11
2.6
72%
47%
25%
8.9
31%
5.1
69%
24.7
62%
0
0001.41.1
53%
4PafosPafos3662
50%
1.7
6638+28
2.9
86%
50%
28%
9.5
47%
4.3
59%
25.0
71%
28
14871.81.1
55%
5Apoel NicosiaApoel Nicosia3652
42%
1.4
5345+8
2.7
83%
50%
25%
10.7
68%
5.0
73%
26.2
82%
15
8351.51.2
54%
6ArisAris3651
39%
1.4
6145+16
2.9
83%
58%
33%
10.1
45%
5.2
73%
25.1
82%
11
3351.71.2
52%
7AnorthosisAnorthosis3345
33%
1.4
3540-5
2.3
67%
30%
21%
8.7
40%
4.9
80%
30.1
100%
0
0001.11.2
50%
8AELAEL3344
39%
1.3
4146-5
2.6
79%
55%
24%
7.0
33%
4.7
67%
30.6
100%
0
0001.21.4
49%
9Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou3342
36%
1.3
3142-11
2.2
64%
39%
18%
7.3
33%
4.7
67%
30.9
89%
0
0000.91.3
43%
10Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas3340
33%
1.2
3644-8
2.4
64%
42%
21%
9.9
44%
3.9
56%
24.3
67%
0
0001.11.3
47%
11OlympiakosOlympiakos3340
30%
1.2
3244-12
2.3
70%
42%
24%
6.8
12%
3.8
38%
29.4
88%
0
0001.01.3
54%
12AkritasAkritas3335
30%
1.1
3158-27
2.7
82%
55%
33%
9.4
50%
5.2
92%
25.2
67%
0
0000.91.8
44%
13Ethnikos AchnaEthnikos Achna3333
30%
1.0
3453-19
2.6
67%
55%
30%
8.9
44%
4.9
89%
28.8
78%
0
0001.01.6
48%
14EnosisEnosis335
3%
0.2
1180-69
2.8
82%
55%
27%
9.7
56%
4.3
44%
26.3
89%
0
0000.32.4
41%
Cyprus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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