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Paide vs Kalju Nomme Result & Analysis

Date: 09/03/2025
Time: 12:30
Final 4-0
Paide
Paide
Vs
38%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide winβœ“ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawβœ— Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme winβœ— Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-443W23L30W11D21W10W20W40W30W21WH·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NΓ•M03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.302.001.192.291.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)2.151.542.251.002.002.40
vs Weaker (17)2.121.121.751.382.440.89
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W30W32W11D22D23L04L21W21W30WH·TAL22/09H·FLO25/09A·TAM29/09A·PAI06/10H·TRA20/10A·FLO23/10H·FC 27/10A·KUR02/11H·VAP09/11A·VAP01/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.172.471.201.931.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.501.331.501.501.501.17
vs Weaker (18)2.671.063.111.002.221.11
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.4%
0-1
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
Paide goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
05.9%6.0%5.3%2.6%1.0%
16.4%12%8.2%4.1%1.5%
25.8%8.6%6.4%3.1%1.2%
33.0%4.4%3.3%1.6%0.6%
41.2%1.7%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

πŸ’ͺ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

πŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 0.11 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 2.06).

βš”οΈ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 0.17 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.92).

πŸ›‘οΈ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Paide is 0.14 goals better than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

πŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

πŸ₯… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

βš–οΈ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L12L00D10W11D10W10W10W20W00DH·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NΓ•M03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.060.690.930.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.230.621.380.251.001.20
vs Weaker (17)0.820.820.751.120.890.56
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W31W01L11D10W02L10W20W10WH·TAL22/09H·FLO25/09A·TAM29/09A·PAI06/10H·TRA20/10A·FLO23/10H·FC 27/10A·KUR02/11H·VAP09/11A·VAP01/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.601.530.670.930.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.420.670.501.000.330.33
vs Weaker (18)1.780.562.220.441.330.67
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D30W01L10W00D10W30W10W21WH·KUR21/09H·TRA25/09A·TRA29/09H·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NΓ•M03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.570.940.501.360.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.920.920.880.751.001.20
vs Weaker (17)1.290.291.000.251.560.33
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W01L10W11D13L02L11D01L20WH·TAL22/09H·FLO25/09A·TAM29/09A·PAI06/10H·TRA20/10A·FLO23/10H·FC 27/10A·KUR02/11H·VAP09/11A·VAP01/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.570.930.531.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.080.671.000.501.170.83
vs Weaker (18)0.890.500.890.560.890.44
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ”₯ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------βœ“ Hit

πŸ’° 14. Squad value

πŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar squad value (both €4m).

βš”οΈ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

πŸ›‘οΈ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🀝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
PAI wins
4
Draws
2
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4
22/05/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme0-2
14/04/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-1
31/10/23AKalju Nomme Vs PAI3-3
03/09/23HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme2-0
27/06/23HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
09/04/23AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/25AKuressaare Vs PAI1-2
09/11/24HPAI Vs FC Levadia Tallinn3-0
03/11/24ANΓ΅mme United Vs PAI0-4
26/10/24HPAI Vs Tammeka2-0
23/10/24AVaprus Vs PAI0-1
20/10/24HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn2-1
06/10/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
29/09/24ATrans Narva Vs PAI0-3
25/09/24HPAI Vs Trans Narva2-3
21/09/24HPAI Vs Kuressaare4-3

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/25AVaprus Vs KN0-3
09/11/24HKN Vs Vaprus2-1
02/11/24AKuressaare Vs KN1-2
27/10/24HKN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-4
23/10/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KN3-2
20/10/24HKN Vs Trans Narva2-2
06/10/24APaide Vs KN1-1
29/09/24ATammeka Vs KN2-3
25/09/24HKN Vs Flora Tallinn3-0
22/09/24HKN Vs Tallinna Kalev3-1

πŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.92
HomeLDWWW1.92
AwayLWWWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%58%62%
AVG goals3.223.083.35
Over 1.5 %82%75%88%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %38%42%35%
Scored2.022.042.00
Conceded1.201.041.35
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.86
HomeWWDLW2.12
AwayWDLWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%42%
AVG goals3.343.832.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %66%79%54%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored2.102.461.77
Conceded1.241.381.12
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet38%33%42%
Corners---
Cards---

πŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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