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Paide vs Kalju Nomme Prediction & Stats

Date: 28/10/2026
Time: 17:00
Paide
Paide
Vs
43%
29%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Paide are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win and giving the side a 47% chance to come out on top, compared with a 28% draw and a 25% away victory. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals carrying a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% chance. Paide’s home form shows they score about 1.2 goals and concede 1.6 against opponents of similar strength, while Kalju Nomme, playing away, averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (90.2%), and Under 4.5 (88.4%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D31W25L10W14L02L11D41W14L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.332.671.071.331.60
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.561.781.752.001.401.60
vs Weaker (19)2.370.953.200.401.441.56
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1211D31W00D51W20W120W31W01L02L23LH·PAI28/06A·NÕM03/07A·KUR19/07H·TAM02/08A·TRA08/08A·POS11/08H·VAP16/08A·LAA22/08A·TRA26/08H·FC 30/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.270.972.131.202.400.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.751.081.571.294.400.80
vs Weaker (18)1.940.892.621.121.400.70
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
Paide goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
01234
09.2%7.6%5.0%1.9%0.5%
19.9%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
27.9%8.9%5.0%1.9%0.5%
33.8%4.2%2.4%0.9%0.2%
41.3%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Paide is 0.25 points better than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Paide and Kalju Nomme are level in goals scored per game (both 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Paide is 0.43 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paide or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
29%
covers Paide + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide or Kalju Nomme
71.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
29%
covers Paide + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kalju Nomme
57.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Kalju Nomme
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Paide, so a minus line means Paide give that many goals of a start and Kalju Nomme receive them. At -1, Paide must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paide win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paide)
Paide -2
8.0%
Draw -2
13.1%
Kalju Nomme +2
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Paide)
Paide -1
21.0%
Draw -1
21.5%
Kalju Nomme +1
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Paide)
Paide +1
71.5%
Draw +1
16.7%
Kalju Nomme -1
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Paide)
Paide +2
88.2%
Draw +2
8.2%
Kalju Nomme -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W15L00D11D01L01L11D11D00DA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.470.470.730.80
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.670.750.750.600.60
vs Weaker (19)1.370.581.800.300.890.89
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D31W00D50W10W80W20W00D02L20WH·PAI28/06A·NÕM03/07A·KUR19/07H·TAM02/08A·TRA08/08A·POS11/08H·VAP16/08A·LAA22/08A·TRA26/08H·FC 30/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.431.000.331.270.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.500.710.432.200.60
vs Weaker (18)1.000.391.250.250.800.50
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W10W03L01L10W30W03L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.200.600.600.80
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.111.001.250.801.00
vs Weaker (19)1.000.371.400.100.560.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D00D01L10W40W11D01L00D03LH·PAI28/06A·NÕM03/07A·KUR19/07H·TAM02/08A·TRA08/08A·POS11/08H·VAP16/08A·LAA22/08A·TRA26/08H·FC 30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.130.871.130.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.420.580.860.862.200.20
vs Weaker (18)0.940.501.380.880.600.20
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.5%-------
Under 6.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 5.595.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.6%-------
Under 4.588.6%-------
Home +2 handicap88.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.9%-------
Away +2 handicap79.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.8%-------
Under 3.574.9%-------
Over 1.573.3%-------
Home or Draw71.5%-------
Home +1 handicap71.5%-------
Home or Away71.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Paide and Kalju Nomme have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
PAI wins
4
Draws
1
KN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Kalju Nomme · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/26AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1
08/11/25AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1
14/09/25HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
28/05/25AKalju Nomme Vs PAI0-2
09/03/25HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme4-0
05/03/25AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-0
06/10/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI1-2
26/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI4-1
23/08/26HPAI Vs Nõmme United4-1
16/08/26ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
12/08/26ARapid Vienna Vs PAI2-0
06/08/26HPAI Vs Rapid Vienna1-4
02/08/26HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-0
19/07/26ALaagri Vs PAI5-2
04/07/26HPAI Vs Vaprus3-1
28/06/26AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1

Kalju NommeKalju Nomme

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HKN Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-3
26/08/26ATrans Narva Vs KN2-0
22/08/26ALaagri Vs KN1-0
16/08/26HKN Vs Vaprus3-1
11/08/26APoseidon Vs KN0-12
08/08/26ATrans Narva Vs KN0-2
02/08/26HKN Vs Tammeka5-1
19/07/26AKuressaare Vs KN0-0
03/07/26ANõmme United Vs KN1-3
28/06/26HKN Vs Paide1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.80
HomeLWWLW2.00
AwayLLDLW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%60%48%
AVG goals3.103.282.92
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.762.161.36
Conceded1.341.121.56
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.002.004.00
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.98
HomeDDWWL1.96
AwayDWWLL2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%60%60%
AVG goals3.103.282.92
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %52%60%44%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored2.162.202.12
Conceded0.941.080.80
BTTS52%64%40%
Clean Sheet36%28%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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