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Paide vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 21/09/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 4-3
Paide
Paide
Vs
62%
22%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
61.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L40W20W16L11D10W31W42W72W23LA·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.331.771.001.761.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.641.712.401.201.222.00
vs Weaker (16)1.881.001.380.882.381.12
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D00D11D02L30W15L01L22D34L01LH·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07H·PAI04/08A·TAL09/08A·KAL18/08H·TRA24/08A·NÕM01/09H·FLO14/09H·FC 17/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.731.121.711.151.77
vs Stronger (13)0.542.850.713.290.332.33
vs Similar (17)1.590.881.400.601.861.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
4.9%
Paide goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
05.7%3.7%2.3%0.7%0.2%
18.9%11%4.7%1.5%0.4%
210%9.9%4.9%1.6%0.4%
37.0%6.9%3.4%1.1%0.3%
43.6%3.6%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Paide is 1.06 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 0.78 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Paide is 0.78 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L10W20W13L11D10W10W30W50W13LA·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.770.850.460.941.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.791.400.200.891.11
vs Weaker (16)0.750.750.500.621.000.88
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D02L00D04L00D10W12L00DH·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07H·PAI04/08A·TAL09/08A·KAL18/08H·TRA24/08A·NÕM01/09H·FLO14/09H·FC 17/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.650.710.620.85
vs Stronger (13)0.231.380.291.430.171.33
vs Similar (17)0.940.290.900.201.000.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W00D03L00D00D21W12L22D10WA·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09H·NÕM14/09A·TAL17/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.570.920.540.820.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.570.931.001.000.330.89
vs Weaker (16)1.120.250.880.251.380.25
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D00D30W11D01L12L22D01LH·TAM12/07A·FC 21/07H·VAP28/07H·PAI04/08A·TAL09/08A·KAL18/08H·TRA24/08A·NÕM01/09H·FLO14/09H·FC 17/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.471.000.540.92
vs Stronger (13)0.311.460.431.860.171.00
vs Similar (17)0.650.590.500.400.860.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide's attack is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide's defence is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
PAI wins
1
Draws
1
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Kuressaare · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2
28/06/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2
06/04/24HPAI Vs Kuressaare3-1
22/10/23HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-0
23/07/23AKuressaare Vs PAI0-4
07/05/23AKuressaare Vs PAI1-4
15/03/23HPAI Vs Kuressaare0-1
09/10/22AKuressaare Vs PAI3-3

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/24ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI3-2
14/09/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United7-2
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4
24/08/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-3
18/08/24HPAI Vs Vaprus1-0
13/08/24HPAI Vs BK Hacken1-1
07/08/24ABK Hacken Vs PAI6-1
04/08/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2
01/08/24HPAI Vs Stjarnan4-0
25/07/24AStjarnan Vs PAI2-1

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/24HKUR Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
14/09/24HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn3-4
01/09/24ANõmme United Vs KUR2-2
24/08/24HKUR Vs Trans Narva0-1
18/08/24AKalju Nomme Vs KUR5-1
09/08/24ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR0-3
04/08/24HKUR Vs Paide0-2
28/07/24HKUR Vs Vaprus1-1
21/07/24AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR0-0
12/07/24HKUR Vs Tammeka0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.76
HomeWWDWW1.87
AwayWLWWL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%57%52%
AVG goals3.103.043.15
Over 1.5 %78%74%81%
Over 2.5 %56%48%63%
Over 3.5 %36%39%33%
Scored1.902.041.78
Conceded1.201.001.37
BTTS52%43%59%
Clean Sheet28%30%26%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards10.0010.00-
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.00
HomeDLLLL1.15
AwayDDWLD0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%27%21%
AVG goals2.822.732.92
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.041.150.92
Conceded1.781.582.00
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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