Paide vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 1-0

Paide

66%

21%

13%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Kuressaare

Estonia: Meistriliiga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Paide, rated highly by the model, is the clear favourite to win at home against Kuressaare. This is largely due to Kuressaare's struggles on the road, conceding an average of 1.86 goals per game against opponents of similar strength. In contrast, Paide has been scoring at a rate of 1.67 goals per game at home, where they also concede just 0.83 goals.

The model predicts a 66% chance of a Paide win, with a 13% chance of a Kuressaare victory and a 21% chance of a draw. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's selection is a Paide home win, with the most likely score being 2-0, occurring at a 10.9% probability.

In terms of scoring, Paide has averaged 1.67 goals at home, while Kuressaare has averaged 1.0 goals away from home. Kuressaare has conceded 1.86 goals away from home, while Paide has conceded 0.83 goals at home. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection at 82.2% probability, with a 3% edge. The suggested picks also include a Home win at 66%, a Draw at 21%, and an Away win at 13%.

Results analysis

Paide's win extends their run of form, coming off a win against Kuressaare in their last match. The 1-0 result was a surprise given the expected low-scoring affair, with the model predicting only 3.1 total goals and a most likely score of 2-0. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 66%. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals also missed, with a probability of 82.2%. The model's call on the home win was a good one, given the actual result, but their other selections did not come to fruition.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit

65.8%

Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.56

Edge

+7.9%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

1.62

Superbet

1.62

Pinnacle

1.61

Betano

1.60

888Sport

1.57

Draw✗ Miss

20.9%

Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 3.92

Edge

-2.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

4.20

10Bet

4.10

Bet365

4.10

Pinnacle

4.10

Unibet

4.00

Kuressaare win✗ Miss

13.3%

Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.72

Edge

-5.8%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

5.16

10Bet

5.10

Marathonbet

5.10

Unibet

5.10

Betfair

5.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Paide

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.5

Avg scored

2.2

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.83	1.30	2.14	1.00	1.56	1.56
vs Stronger (5)	1.40	1.40	1.00	1.67	2.00	1.00
vs Similar (6)	0.83	1.83	0.50	1.50	1.00	2.00
vs Weaker (19)	2.26	1.11	2.89	0.67	1.70	1.50
Clean sheet %	27% (-1pp vs league)

This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	1.80	0.87	1.67	0.80	1.93
vs Stronger (19)	0.68	2.05	0.70	1.80	0.67	2.33
vs Similar (9)	1.00	1.33	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.20
vs Weaker (2)	1.50	1.50	2.00	1.00	1.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	20% (-7pp vs league)

This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

82.2%

@ 1.15+3.0%

Under 1.5

17.8%

@ 4.37-3.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

888Sport

1.18

10Bet

1.17

Bet365

1.17

Unibet

1.15

Superbet

1.15

Under

Betfair

5.20

Bet365

4.50

Marathonbet

4.50

10Bet

4.50

888Sport

4.50

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

59.6%

@ 1.55+0.6%

Under 2.5

40.4%

@ 2.22-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.60

Bet365

1.60

888Sport

1.57

Unibet

1.56

Superbet

1.56

Under

Betfair

2.40

10Bet

2.35

Bet365

2.30

Pinnacle

2.29

888Sport

2.25

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

37.2%

@ 2.37-1.4%

Under 3.5

62.8%

@ 1.49+1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.50

Pinnacle

2.50

888Sport

2.45

Unibet

2.43

Marathonbet

2.41

Under

10Bet

1.53

Betano

1.52

Pinnacle

1.51

1xBet

1.50

Marathonbet

1.50

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

53.6%

@ 1.59-3.6%

46.4%

@ 2.13+3.6%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.67

Unibet

1.63

Superbet

1.62

1xBet

1.61

Marathonbet

1.61

William Hil

2.25

888Sport

2.25

Betfair

2.20

Superbet

2.17

1xBet

2.16

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-0

10.9%@ 7.86+5.5%

1-1

9.9%@ 7.25+4.0%

2-1

9.8%@ 7.18+3.9%

1-0 ✓

9.1%@ 7.83+3.7%

3-0

8.0%@ 11.18+4.2%

3-1

7.2%@ 10.13+3.0%

0-0

5.5%@ 13.77+2.4%

2-2

4.4%@ 12.22+0.9%

Paide goals ↓

	Kuressaare goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	3.2%	1.9%	0.6%	0.1%
1	9.1%	9.9%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11%	9.8%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
3	8.0%	7.2%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
4	4.3%	3.9%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Flora Tallinn

2.28

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.19

Kalju Nomme

2.06

Paide

1.94

Trans Narva

1.42

Vaprus

1.36

Nõmme United

1.20

Laagri

1.00

Kuressaare

0.89

Tammeka

0.83

Paide is 1.05 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.47

Flora Tallinn

2.33

Kalju Nomme

1.92

Paide

1.75

Vaprus

1.50

Trans Narva

1.47

Laagri

1.36

Nõmme United

1.32

Tammeka

1.31

Kuressaare

0.92

Paide is 0.83 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Flora Tallinn

0.86

Paide

0.89

FC Levadia Tallinn

1.00

Kalju Nomme

1.03

Vaprus

1.42

Trans Narva

1.44

Nõmme United

1.73

Kuressaare

1.76

Laagri

1.94

Tammeka

2.31

Paide is 0.87 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	82.2%	1.15	888Sport 1.18	10Bet 1.17	Bet365 1.17	Unibet 1.15	Superbet 1.15	+3.0%	✗ Miss

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KN (21)

€3m

FT (20)

€3m

PAI (21)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

FT (8)

€1m

PAI (8)

€1m

KN (7)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

PAI (5)

€1m

KN (2)

€1m

FT (4)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KN (12)

€2m

PAI (8)

€1m

FT (8)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Paide vs Kuressaare · H/A from PAI

Date	H/A	Game	Score
04/10/25	A	Kuressaare Vs PAI	1-1
16/08/25	H	PAI Vs Kuressaare	5-1
04/05/25	H	PAI Vs Kuressaare	1-1
02/03/25	A	Kuressaare Vs PAI	1-2
21/09/24	H	PAI Vs Kuressaare	4-3
04/08/24	A	Kuressaare Vs PAI	0-2
28/06/24	A	Kuressaare Vs PAI	0-2
06/04/24	H	PAI Vs Kuressaare	3-1

Paide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
19/07/26	A	Laagri Vs PAI	5-2
04/07/26	H	PAI Vs Vaprus	3-1
28/06/26	A	Kalju Nomme Vs PAI	1-1
08/11/25	A	Kalju Nomme Vs PAI	1-1
02/11/25	H	PAI Vs Vaprus	3-0
26/10/25	H	PAI Vs Flora Tallinn	1-1
22/10/25	A	FC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI	1-2
18/10/25	H	PAI Vs Tammeka	5-0
04/10/25	A	Kuressaare Vs PAI	1-1
27/09/25	A	Trans Narva Vs PAI	2-3

Kuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
19/07/26	H	KUR Vs Kalju Nomme	0-0
11/07/26	A	Nõmme United Vs KUR	3-2
02/07/26	H	KUR Vs Flora Tallinn	0-3
26/06/26	A	Vaprus Vs KUR	1-0
29/11/25	H	KUR Vs Viimsi	2-0
22/11/25	A	Viimsi Vs KUR	0-1
08/11/25	A	Tallinna Kalev Vs KUR	2-1
01/11/25	A	Flora Tallinn Vs KUR	2-0
25/10/25	H	KUR Vs Kalju Nomme	0-1
21/10/25	A	Vaprus Vs KUR	0-1

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Paide

Estonia: Meistriliiga

Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDDWL	1.98
Home	DWDWW	2.16
Away	DWDDL	1.80

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	60%	64%	56%
AVG goals	2.88	2.96	2.80
Over 1.5 %	82%	88%	76%
Over 2.5 %	56%	56%	56%
Over 3.5 %	26%	32%	20%
Scored	1.84	2.16	1.52
Conceded	1.04	0.80	1.28
BTTS	48%	48%	48%
Clean Sheet	34%	40%	28%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Kuressaare

Estonia: Meistriliiga

Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLLLD	0.88
Home	LLWLD	1.12
Away	LLWLL	0.65

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	33%	19%
AVG goals	2.82	2.62	3.00
Over 1.5 %	82%	83%	81%
Over 2.5 %	58%	62%	54%
Over 3.5 %	24%	17%	31%
Scored	1.02	1.12	0.92
Conceded	1.80	1.50	2.08
BTTS	54%	58%	50%
Clean Sheet	20%	21%	19%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Kalju Nomme	5	11	60%	2.2	11	3	+8	2.8	80%	40%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	2	2.2	0.6	-
2	Flora Tallinn	4	9	75%	2.2	7	3	+4	2.5	75%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	0	1	1.8	0.8	-
3	FC Levadia Tallinn	4	7	50%	1.8	10	4	+6	3.5	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.5	1.0	-
4	Vaprus	5	7	40%	1.4	9	8	+1	3.4	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.6	-
5	Paide	4	7	50%	1.8	7	7	+0	3.5	75%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.8	1.8	-
6	Laagri	5	6	40%	1.2	11	8	+3	3.8	80%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	1.6	-
7	Trans Narva	5	6	40%	1.2	6	10	-4	3.2	100%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.0	-
8	Tammeka	4	6	50%	1.5	5	11	-6	4.0	75%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.8	-
9	Nõmme United	6	6	33%	1.0	7	14	-7	3.5	83%	83%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.3	-
10	Kuressaare	6	4	17%	0.7	5	10	-5	2.5	50%	50%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.7	-

Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

← all matches

Paide vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Paide

Kuressaare

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Paide

Kuressaare

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature