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Paide vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 2-2
Paide
Paide
Vs
72%
18%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✗ Miss
71.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L50W10W10W21W01L21W01L11D12LA·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03H·TAM05/04H·VAP09/04A·LAA12/04A·FLO18/04H·FC 23/04A·TAL26/04H·KUR04/05A·FC 11/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.072.560.811.791.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)2.621.313.000.752.002.20
vs Weaker (17)1.880.882.120.881.670.89
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W03L11D03L12L41W14L01L31W03LA·KUR16/03H·TRA29/03A·VAP05/04A·KAL09/04H·PAI12/04H·TAM18/04A·FLO22/04H·VAP26/04A·TAL03/05H·FLO09/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.431.572.271.132.602.00
vs Stronger (11)1.642.271.201.402.003.00
vs Similar (19)2.891.162.801.003.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.3%
Under 2.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.8%
1-1
8.3%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-0
5.5%
4-1
4.8%
Paide goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
04.2%2.3%1.3%0.4%0.1%
17.8%8.3%3.3%1.0%0.2%
211%9.4%4.1%1.2%0.3%
38.8%7.8%3.4%1.0%0.2%
45.5%4.8%2.1%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 0.94 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 0.39 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.36).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Paide is 1.06 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.94).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W00D10W10W01L01L00D11D02LA·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03H·TAM05/04H·VAP09/04A·LAA12/04A·FLO18/04H·FC 23/04A·TAL26/04H·KUR04/05A·FC 11/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.380.560.790.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.310.691.500.381.001.20
vs Weaker (17)0.940.591.250.750.670.44
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L01L03L01L01L12L00D11D01LA·KUR16/03H·TRA29/03A·VAP05/04A·KAL09/04H·PAI12/04H·TAM18/04A·FLO22/04H·VAP26/04A·TAL03/05H·FLO09/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.670.601.070.93
vs Stronger (11)0.731.000.600.600.831.33
vs Similar (19)0.950.630.700.601.220.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W00D11D00D20W01L00D10WA·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03H·TAM05/04H·VAP09/04A·LAA12/04A·FLO18/04H·FC 23/04A·TAL26/04H·KUR04/05A·FC 11/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.431.190.251.000.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.310.621.500.381.001.00
vs Weaker (17)0.940.290.880.121.000.44
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L10W00D11D40W02L01L20W02LA·KUR16/03H·TRA29/03A·VAP05/04A·KAL09/04H·PAI12/04H·TAM18/04A·FLO22/04H·VAP26/04A·TAL03/05H·FLO09/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.801.600.531.531.07
vs Stronger (11)0.911.270.600.801.171.67
vs Similar (19)1.950.532.100.401.780.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.7%-------✓ Hit
Home win71.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
5
PAI wins
0
Draws
0
LAA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Laagri · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/25ALaagri Vs PAI1-2
08/10/23HPAI Vs Laagri4-0
06/08/23ALaagri Vs PAI0-1
11/06/23ALaagri Vs PAI0-1
01/04/23HPAI Vs Laagri1-0

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI2-1
04/05/25HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-1
26/04/25ATallinna Kalev Vs PAI1-0
23/04/25HPAI Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-1
18/04/25AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI1-0
12/04/25ALaagri Vs PAI1-2
09/04/25HPAI Vs Vaprus1-0
05/04/25HPAI Vs Tammeka1-0
30/03/25HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev5-0
15/03/25ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-0

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25HLAA Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
03/05/25ATallinna Kalev Vs LAA1-3
26/04/25HLAA Vs Vaprus0-1
22/04/25AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA4-1
18/04/25HLAA Vs Tammeka4-1
12/04/25HLAA Vs Paide1-2
09/04/25AKalju Nomme Vs LAA3-0
05/04/25AVaprus Vs LAA1-1
29/03/25HLAA Vs Trans Narva0-3
16/03/25AKuressaare Vs LAA1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.84
HomeWWWWD1.96
AwayLWLLL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals2.982.963.00
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.882.041.72
Conceded1.100.921.28
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.84
HomeLLWLL1.92
AwayWDLLW1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals3.923.714.12
Over 1.5 %90%83%96%
Over 2.5 %70%67%73%
Over 3.5 %52%50%54%
Scored2.522.542.50
Conceded1.401.171.62
BTTS64%50%77%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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