Paide’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Flora Tallinn give the home side a clear edge, and the model reflects that with a 69% chance of a home win. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 10.3% probability, while the expected total of 3.3 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair. Paide’s home form shows they average 3.0 goals scored and concede just 0.56, a strong advantage against Laagri’s away record of 0.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Laagri’s weaker performance at home and stronger opposition at home further tilt the balance. The model’s suggested picks include an 98.5% chance of “Away under 3.5 goals”, a 97.9% chance of “Under 7.5”, a 95.9% chance of “Home +2 handicap”, a 94.7% chance of “Under 6.5”, a 93.1% chance of “Away under 2.5 goals”, a 91.0% chance of “Home over 0.5 goals”, an 88.0% chance of “Home or Draw”, and an 88.0% chance of “Home +1 handicap”. The probabilities for the match result are 69% for a home win, 19% for a draw, and 12% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paide win
69.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win
12.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.07
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.56
1.78
1.75
2.00
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.95
3.20
0.40
1.44
1.56
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
1.47
3.67
1.22
1.42
1.83
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.85
2.11
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.25
2.62
0.88
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.8%
3-0
8.2%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.6%
Paide goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
2.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.7%
8.8%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
2
10%
9.6%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.2%
7.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.9%
4.6%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Paide is 0.50 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Paide is 0.12 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Paide is 0.05 goals worse than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paide or Draw
88.0%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Paide + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide or Laagri
81.1%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Paide + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Laagri
30.9%
Avg Implied -
69%
19%
12%
covers Draw + Laagri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
91.0%
Under
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paide, so a minus line means Paide give that many goals of a start and Laagri receive them. At -1, Paide must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paide win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paide)
Paide -2
27.0%
Draw -2
20.4%
Laagri +2
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Paide)
Paide -1
47.4%
Draw -1
21.7%
Laagri +1
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Paide)
Paide +1
88.0%
Draw +1
7.9%
Laagri -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Paide)
Paide +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.1%
Laagri -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.47
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
0.58
1.80
0.30
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.83
0.50
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.22
0.78
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.1%
Under 1.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.9%
Under 2.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.20
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.37
1.40
0.10
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.83
0.72
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.38
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.9%
Under 0.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.7%
Under 1.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Paide and Laagri have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Paide and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Paide and Laagri have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United