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Paide vs Nõmme United Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 7-2
Paide
Paide
Vs
60%
26%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L31W12L40W20W16L11D10W31W42WH·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.231.500.931.751.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.401.601.671.001.222.00
vs Weaker (15)1.870.871.380.882.430.86
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L02L04L12L01L11D01L11D22DH·FLO29/06A·TAM04/07A·VAP13/07H·KAL19/07A·TRA26/07H·FC 04/08A·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.700.931.861.191.56
vs Stronger (6)0.172.170.332.670.001.67
vs Similar (21)1.431.571.221.671.581.50
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.501.500.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
7.3%
0-1
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
Paide goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
01234
010%5.4%2.3%0.5%0.1%
115%12%3.8%0.9%0.2%
213%9.1%3.2%0.7%0.1%
37.3%5.1%1.8%0.4%0.1%
43.1%2.2%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
Paide is 1.58 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 1.44 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 0.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
Paide is 1.11 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D01L10W20W13L11D10W10W30WH·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.700.640.500.940.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.800.830.330.891.11
vs Weaker (15)0.730.600.500.621.000.57
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L01L01L11D00D10W00D00D01LH·FLO29/06A·TAM04/07A·VAP13/07H·KAL19/07A·TRA26/07H·FC 04/08A·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.290.860.691.00
vs Stronger (6)0.001.170.001.330.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.710.810.440.670.920.92
vs Weaker (3)0.001.330.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W11D30W00D03L00D00D21W12LH·BAL18/07H·TAL21/07A·STJ25/07H·STJ01/08A·KUR04/08A·BK 07/08H·BK 13/08H·VAP18/08A·TAM24/08A·KAL01/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.860.430.810.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.800.830.670.330.89
vs Weaker (15)1.130.270.880.251.430.29
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L03L01L01L01L01L11D21WH·FLO29/06A·TAM04/07A·VAP13/07H·KAL19/07A·TRA26/07H·FC 04/08A·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.641.000.500.56
vs Stronger (6)0.171.000.331.330.000.67
vs Similar (21)0.710.760.781.000.670.58
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide's attack is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
PAI wins
0
Draws
0
NU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Nõmme United · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/24ANõmme United Vs PAI0-1
10/03/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United3-1

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs PAI2-4
24/08/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-3
18/08/24HPAI Vs Vaprus1-0
13/08/24HPAI Vs BK Hacken1-1
07/08/24ABK Hacken Vs PAI6-1
04/08/24AKuressaare Vs PAI0-2
01/08/24HPAI Vs Stjarnan4-0
25/07/24AStjarnan Vs PAI2-1
21/07/24HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev3-1
18/07/24HPAI Vs Bala Town0-1

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24HNU Vs Kuressaare2-2
25/08/24HNU Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
18/08/24AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-0
11/08/24ATammeka Vs NU1-1
04/08/24HNU Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-1
26/07/24ATrans Narva Vs NU2-1
19/07/24HNU Vs Kalju Nomme0-4
13/07/24AVaprus Vs NU2-0
04/07/24ATammeka Vs NU2-1
29/06/24HNU Vs Flora Tallinn1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.74
HomeLWWDW1.78
AwayLWLWW1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%52%52%
AVG goals2.822.652.96
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %52%43%59%
Over 3.5 %32%35%30%
Scored1.721.741.70
Conceded1.100.911.26
BTTS48%39%56%
Clean Sheet32%35%30%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards10.0010.00-
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDD1.50
HomeDLLDD1.64
AwayLLLDL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals3.103.043.16
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored1.861.722.00
Conceded1.241.321.16
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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