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Paide vs Nõmme United Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 4-1
Paide
Paide
Vs
70%
18%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Paide is the clear favourite, rated highly by the model due to Nõmme United's poor away form, particularly against similar-strength opponents, where they concede an average of 1.4 goals. At home, Paide scores 0.5 goals per game, but concedes 1.5 goals, which the model expects to be a significant factor in the match. The expected total number of goals is 3.6, with the most likely outcome being 3 goals.

The most likely score is 2-1 in favour of Paide, with a probability of 9.3%. The model's selection is the home win, with a 69% chance of success. Nõmme United's away form is a concern, and they are likely to struggle against Paide's home strength. The model suggests Over 1.5 and Over 2.5, with probabilities of 88.5% and 70.3%, respectively.

Paide has a 69% chance of winning, a 18% chance of drawing, and a 13% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (88.5%) and Over 2.5 (70.3%).

Results analysis

Paide’s recent form, ending a win streak, proved decisive as the home side secured a 4-1 victory over Nõmme United, matching the model’s predicted outcome. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 70 % probability and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.9 %, Under 7.5 hit at 96.7 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 95.7 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 95.1 %, Away under 1.5 2H goals hit at 93.4 %, and Home over 0.5 goals hit at 92.7 %. The model’s selections performed strongly across the board.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 59.3% · @ 1.52
Edge
+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
Dafabet
1.54
Draw✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.19
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Pinnacle
4.30
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
12.0%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.69
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.11
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
888Sport
4.80
Dafabet
4.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W20W15L11D31W25L10W14L02L11DH·TAL11/03H·VAP06/05H·FLO23/05A·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.402.381.061.211.79
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (8)0.882.250.752.251.002.25
vs Weaker (20)2.350.903.090.361.441.56
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1250W13L13L32W21W120W12L05L01L20WH·ELV09/11A·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.301.133.940.942.571.36
vs Stronger (5)1.002.001.000.001.002.50
vs Similar (21)3.241.053.251.173.220.89
vs Weaker (4)6.500.507.670.333.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Under 1.5
11.4%
@ 5.79-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.6%
@ 1.35+3.4%
Under 2.5
29.4%
@ 2.78-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
888Sport
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
2.90
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.5%
@ 1.92+1.6%
Under 3.5
50.5%
@ 1.77-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
SBO
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.83
888Sport
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
@ 1.44-2.9%
No
39.5%
@ 2.49+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
888Sport
2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%@ 7.56+3.6%
2-0
8.9%@ 9.32+4.3%
3-1
8.0%@ 9.55+3.6%
3-0
7.8%@ 11.95+4.2%
1-1
7.8%@ 8.45+2.7%
1-0
6.1%@ 10.70+2.1%
4-1 ✓
5.2%@ 15.23+2.4%
4-0
5.1%@ 18.80+2.8%
Paide goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
01234
03.3%2.0%1.4%0.5%0.1%
16.1%7.8%3.6%1.3%0.3%
28.9%9.2%4.8%1.6%0.4%
37.8%8.0%4.2%1.4%0.4%
45.1%5.2%2.7%0.9%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Paide is 1.25 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Paide is 0.88 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Paide is 1.07 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paide or Draw✓ Hit
88.0%
Avg Implied 80.8% · @ 1.13
Edge
+7.2%
70%
18%
12%
covers Paide + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.18
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Paide or Nõmme United✓ Hit
82.5%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.15
Edge
+3.1%
70%
18%
12%
covers Paide + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Draw or Nõmme United✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.29
Edge
-10.3%
70%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Unibet
2.32
SBO
2.32

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paide over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.7%
@ 1.06+5.0%
Under
7.3%
@ 7.57-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Under
888Sport
8.50
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
6.70
Paide over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
73.5%
@ 1.37+7.5%
Under
26.5%
@ 2.68-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
2.88
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.68
Superbet
2.67
Paide over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 2.18+6.6%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.57-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.20
888Sport
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Paide over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
26.7%
@ 3.78+2.8%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.19-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.00
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Under
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.5%
@ 1.33-3.7%
Under
35.5%
@ 2.86+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
@ 2.57-7.7%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.41+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.40
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 5.75-7.1%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.08+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
5.45
Under
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.00-3.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Paide, so a minus line means Paide give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Paide must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paide win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paide)Actual: Paide
Paide -2
29.8%
@ 3.93+7.2%
Draw -2
20.2%
@ 4.63+1.0%
Nõmme United +2
50.0%
@ 1.53-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.25
Away
Unibet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Paide)Actual: Paide
Paide -1
50.0%
@ 2.22+10.3%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.85-2.4%
Nõmme United +1
29.5%
@ 2.35-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Unibet
2.20
Bet365
2.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Bet365
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.26
Handicap +1 (Paide)Actual: Paide
Paide +1
88.0%
@ 1.13+12.2%
Draw +1
7.7%
@ 6.12-6.3%
Nõmme United -1
4.3%
@ 8.37-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Unibet
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Paide)Actual: Paide
Paide +2
95.7%
@ 1.05+6.4%
Draw +2
3.2%
@ 15.00-3.1%
Nõmme United -2
1.2%
@ 21.00-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
21.00

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W10W02L00D21W15L00D11D01L01LH·TAL11/03H·VAP06/05H·FLO23/05A·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.701.380.440.711.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.501.000.500.750.501.25
vs Weaker (20)1.350.551.730.270.890.89
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W10W13L01L20W60W02L03L00D00DH·ELV09/11A·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.572.120.691.360.43
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.000.000.751.00
vs Similar (21)1.710.571.750.831.670.22
vs Weaker (4)3.500.254.330.331.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.18+3.4%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 3.92-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.74
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.2%
@ 1.96+8.4%
Under 1.5
44.8%
@ 1.72-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
SBO
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.9%
@ 3.92-0.1%
Under 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.18+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.14

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.44+9.2%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.57-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 3.27+14.0%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.28-14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 8.60+8.9%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.03-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Under
1xBet
1.03
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.3%
@ 2.21-15.5%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.59+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.12
Under
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 7.65-7.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
6.90
Under
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W13L11D10W10W10W03L01L10WH·TAL11/03H·VAP06/05H·FLO23/05A·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.701.000.620.500.79
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.381.250.251.500.501.00
vs Weaker (20)1.000.351.360.090.560.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-640W03L00D31W01L60W10W02L01L20WH·ELV09/11A·FLO10/03H·KAL03/07H·KUR11/07A·FLO17/07H·RAP23/07H·TRA31/07A·FC 09/08H·TAM14/08A·HII19/08← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.571.810.251.210.93
vs Stronger (5)0.401.201.000.000.251.50
vs Similar (21)1.520.481.500.331.560.67
vs Weaker (4)3.000.253.330.002.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.9%
@ 1.10+2.8%
Under 0.5
13.1%
@ 5.83-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.10
William Hil
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.3%
@ 1.57-4.0%
Under 1.5
45.7%
@ 2.20+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.1%
@ 2.78+1.1%
Under 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.37-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
80.6%
@ 1.31+9.7%
Under
19.4%
@ 3.20-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
3.20
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.4%
@ 2.41+5.3%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.48-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.5%
@ 5.70+4.4%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.09-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Under
1xBet
1.09
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 1.84-18.8%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.85+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.81
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 5.45-10.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.10+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.20
Under
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.6%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals97.9%1.01
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.01
---+3.8%✓ Hit
Under 7.596.7%1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
---+4.5%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap95.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05
----+6.4%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals95.1%1.04
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
---+7.1%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals93.4%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
---+10.1%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals92.7%1.06
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
1xBet
1.06
--+5.0%✓ Hit
Under 6.592.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
---+3.3%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals91.3%1.08
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
+7.1%✓ Hit
Over 1.588.6%1.08
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+4.4%✓ Hit
Home or Draw88.0%1.13
BetVictor
1.18
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.14
+7.2%✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap88.0%1.13
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
--+12.2%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals86.9%1.10
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-+2.8%✓ Hit
Under 5.583.7%1.10
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+1.4%✓ Hit
Home or Away82.5%1.15
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
+3.1%✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals80.6%1.31
1xBet
1.31
----+9.7%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals80.4%1.03
1xBet
1.03
-----8.9%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals80.2%1.18
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Betfair
1.17
+3.4%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals79.5%1.09
1xBet
1.09
-----4.4%✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals77.1%1.18
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.14
+0.1%✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals73.7%1.59
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
+15.5%✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals73.5%1.37
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+7.5%✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals73.3%1.19
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
-2.8%✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 HT goals73.2%1.44
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
-+9.2%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals72.3%1.41
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.40
+7.7%✓ Hit
Over 2.570.6%1.35
Pinnacle
1.42
888Sport
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+3.4%✓ Hit
Home win70.5%1.52
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
Dafabet
1.54
+11.2%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Paide's attack is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Paide and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Paide and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
PAI wins
0
Draws
0
NU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Nõmme United · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/24ANõmme United Vs PAI0-4
14/09/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United7-2
12/05/24ANõmme United Vs PAI0-1
10/03/24HPAI Vs Nõmme United3-1

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/26ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
12/08/26ARapid Vienna Vs PAI2-0
06/08/26HPAI Vs Rapid Vienna1-4
02/08/26HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-0
19/07/26ALaagri Vs PAI5-2
04/07/26HPAI Vs Vaprus3-1
28/06/26AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1
23/05/26HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn1-5
06/05/26HPAI Vs Vaprus2-0
11/03/26HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev6-0

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/26AHiiumaa Vs NU0-2
14/08/26HNU Vs Tammeka0-1
09/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs NU5-0
31/07/26HNU Vs Trans Narva1-2
23/07/26HNU Vs Raplamaa12-0
17/07/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-2
11/07/26HNU Vs Kuressaare3-2
03/07/26HNU Vs Kalju Nomme1-3
10/03/26AFlora Tallinn Vs NU3-1
09/11/25HNU Vs Elva5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.80
HomeWLWWL2.04
AwayDDLLD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals2.983.192.75
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %28%38%17%
Scored1.742.151.29
Conceded1.241.041.46
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet30%42%17%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.002.004.00
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW2.26
HomeLWWLL2.19
AwayWLWLW2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%73%75%
AVG goals4.204.503.88
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %76%81%71%
Over 3.5 %60%65%54%
Scored3.163.462.83
Conceded1.041.041.04
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet36%42%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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