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Paide vs Tammeka Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2022
Time: 11:30
Final 3-0
Paide
Paide
Vs
73%
16%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Paide’s recent 2-game winning streak and a strong 4-game run for Tammeka suggest a competitive match, but the model’s clear favourite remains a home win. The probability of a Paide victory sits at 73%, with a draw at 16% and an away win at 11%. The expected total goals is 3.8, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Paide, with an 8.9% chance. Paide’s home form shows an average of 4.33 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded against weaker opposition, while Tammeka’s away form against stronger teams yields just 0.75 goals scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (89.5%), Home win (72.8%), and Over 2.5 (72.3%). Paide’s home win percentage is 73%, the draw percentage 16%, and the away win percentage 11%. These figures together paint a picture of a high-scoring, home-side dominated encounter.

Results analysis

Paide continued their strong home run, extending a two-game winning streak with a 3-0 triumph over Tammeka. The model had tipped a home win with a 73% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The favourite’s 72.8% confidence was validated as the match finished in the predicted direction. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals came in at 89.5% confidence, Over 2.5 at 72.3%, and the home win itself at 72.8%. All three picks settled as projected, confirming the model’s accuracy. The final score of 3-0 matched the predicted home victory and reinforced Paide’s recent form, while Tammeka’s away campaign remained solid despite the loss.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win✗ Miss
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W30W01L11D21W11D32W01L00D00DH·TRA18/05H·TAM24/05A·KAL29/05H·KUR18/06A·LEG29/06A·TRA02/07A·DIN07/07H·DIN14/07A·ARA21/07H·ARA28/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.041.002.641.091.500.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.100.601.400.600.80
vs Weaker (13)3.150.924.330.832.141.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L13L31W13L03L03L14L10W11D03LA·FLO01/05A·KAL08/05H·VAP13/05H·TAL17/05A·PAI24/05A·KUR29/05H·LEG19/06H·TRA29/06A·VAP02/07H·FC 15/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.000.902.000.902.00
vs Stronger (9)0.562.780.402.400.753.25
vs Similar (11)1.181.361.401.601.001.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %15% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%08%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.5%
Under 1.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.3%
Under 2.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.7%
Under 3.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8.2%
3-0 ✓
8.0%
1-1
7.2%
1-0
5.8%
4-1
5.6%
4-0
5.5%
Paide goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
01234
03.0%1.7%1.2%0.4%0.1%
15.8%7.2%3.3%1.1%0.3%
28.8%8.9%4.5%1.5%0.4%
38.0%8.2%4.1%1.4%0.4%
45.5%5.6%2.8%1.0%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Paide is 0.72 points better than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Paide is 1.28 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Paide is 0.56 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W01L01L01L00D01L00D00D00DH·TRA18/05H·TAM24/05A·KAL29/05H·KUR18/06A·LEG29/06A·TRA02/07A·DIN07/07H·DIN14/07A·ARA21/07H·ARA28/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.780.611.090.550.500.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.100.600.200.600.000.60
vs Weaker (13)1.310.621.830.500.860.71
Clean sheet %48% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W10W00D01L00D02L00D10W02LA·FLO01/05A·KAL08/05H·VAP13/05H·TAL17/05A·PAI24/05A·KUR29/05H·LEG19/06H·TRA29/06A·VAP02/07H·FC 15/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.300.800.500.60
vs Stronger (9)0.331.220.201.200.501.25
vs Similar (11)0.450.270.400.400.500.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %55% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W20W00D10W20W11D31W01L00D00DH·TRA18/05H·TAM24/05A·KAL29/05H·KUR18/06A·LEG29/06A·TRA02/07A·DIN07/07H·DIN14/07A·ARA21/07H·ARA28/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.260.391.550.551.000.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.500.400.800.600.20
vs Weaker (13)1.850.312.500.331.290.29
Clean sheet %61% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L21W13L02L03L12L10W01L01LA·FLO01/05A·KAL08/05H·VAP13/05H·TAL17/05A·PAI24/05A·KUR29/05H·LEG19/06H·TRA29/06A·VAP02/07H·FC 15/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.300.601.200.401.40
vs Stronger (9)0.221.560.201.200.252.00
vs Similar (11)0.731.091.001.200.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.5%-------✓ Hit
Home win72.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Tammeka's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
PAI wins
0
Draws
0
TAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Tammeka · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/22HPAI Vs Tammeka3-0
20/03/22ATammeka Vs PAI1-3

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/22HPAI Vs Ararat-Armenia0-0
21/07/22AArarat-Armenia Vs PAI0-0
14/07/22HPAI Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-1
07/07/22ADinamo Tbilisi Vs PAI2-3
02/07/22ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
29/06/22ALegion Vs PAI1-2
18/06/22HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-1
29/05/22AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-0
24/05/22HPAI Vs Tammeka3-0
18/05/22HPAI Vs Trans Narva4-2

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/07/22HTAM Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
02/07/22AVaprus Vs TAM1-1
29/06/22HTAM Vs Trans Narva1-0
19/06/22HTAM Vs Legion1-4
29/05/22AKuressaare Vs TAM3-0
24/05/22APaide Vs TAM3-0
17/05/22HTAM Vs Tallinna Kalev1-3
13/05/22HTAM Vs Vaprus3-1
08/05/22AKalju Nomme Vs TAM3-1
01/05/22AFlora Tallinn Vs TAM3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDD1.65
HomeWWDLD1.55
AwayLWDWD1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%45%50%
AVG goals3.043.732.42
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %61%64%58%
Over 3.5 %35%45%25%
Scored2.042.641.50
Conceded1.001.090.92
BTTS52%45%58%
Clean Sheet30%36%25%
Corners7.759.006.50
Cards5.336.004.00
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL0.90
HomeWLLWL1.00
AwayLLLLD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%30%20%
AVG goals2.902.902.90
Over 1.5 %80%70%90%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %40%50%30%
Scored0.900.900.90
Conceded2.002.002.00
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet15%20%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3697
86%
2.7
9421+73
3.2
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.60.6
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
67%
2.2
7425+49
2.8
69%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.10.7
-
3PaidePaide3665
53%
1.8
8437+47
3.4
78%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.0
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3665
53%
1.8
5930+29
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.60.8
-
5KuressaareKuressaare3650
36%
1.4
4951-2
2.8
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.41.4
-
6TammekaTammeka3639
28%
1.1
3857-19
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
7Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
28%
1.1
4358-15
2.8
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.6
-
8Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3635
28%
1.0
4292-50
3.7
86%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
9LegionLegion3829
18%
0.8
3783-46
3.2
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
10VaprusVaprus3611
8%
0.3
3296-64
3.6
75%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.92.7
-
11ElvaElva23
50%
1.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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