Paide are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 55% chance of a home victory, 26% for a draw and 19% for a Tammeka win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.2% chance. Paide’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, while Tammeka, playing away against stronger teams, manages only 0.33 goals scored and concedes 1.67. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 76.6% and Under 3.5 at 71.0%. The model also lists the edge for the Under 3.5 pick, as its edge_pct is present. The final score last week was 0-0, a draw, but Paide’s recent two-game winning streak and Tammeka’s recent four-game winning run suggest a competitive encounter, with Paide still the favorite.
Results analysis
Paide’s 2-game winning streak ended in a 0-0 stalemate, halting their run after a 2-1 win over Flora Tallinn. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 55% probability, yet the model’s call was wrong as the match finished in a draw. The model’s selection Over 1.5, with a 76.6% chance, missed, while Under 3.5, at 71.0%, hit. Paide’s home form shows an average of 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Tammeka’s away record averages 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded against stronger teams. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paide win✗ Miss
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.17
1.69
0.94
1.79
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.20
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (18)
2.39
1.00
2.30
0.70
2.50
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
0.94
1.31
1.07
1.43
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.54
0.57
1.43
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
0-0 ✓
7.7%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
Paide goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.0%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 0.66 points better than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Paide is 0.36 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Paide is 0.79 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.81
0.50
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.50
1.30
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.38
0.94
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.29
1.14
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.59
0.44
0.78
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.88
0.44
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.56
0.38
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
0.54
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.65
0.78
0.44
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Tammeka's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Tallinna Kalev
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Laagri
Viimsi