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Paide vs Tammeka Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2025
Time: 09:30
Final 1-0
Paide
Paide
Vs
64%
21%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paide win✓ Hit
63.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win✗ Miss
15.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D21W10W20W40W30W21W40W01L50WH·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NÕM03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03H·KAL09/03A·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.431.172.561.002.291.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.911.363.140.712.502.50
vs Weaker (19)2.161.052.111.222.200.90
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W03L21W02L33D21W21W23L22D05LA·TAL05/10H·FC 19/10H·KUR22/10A·PAI26/10H·TRA03/11A·NÕM09/11A·TAL02/03H·FC 08/03A·KAL16/03H·VAP29/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.771.561.881.141.64
vs Stronger (14)1.072.291.292.140.862.43
vs Similar (16)1.621.311.781.671.430.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
9.4%
1-0 ✓
7.4%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
4.5%
Paide goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
01234
04.5%3.0%2.0%0.7%0.2%
17.4%9.5%4.5%1.6%0.4%
29.4%9.8%5.1%1.8%0.5%
37.1%7.4%3.9%1.3%0.4%
44.0%4.2%2.2%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 1.11 points better than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 0.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
Paide is 0.44 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
Paide is 1.42 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 2.31).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W10W10W20W00D10W01L30WH·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NÕM03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03H·KAL09/03A·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.701.310.690.930.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.550.551.710.291.251.00
vs Weaker (19)0.890.791.001.000.800.60
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L01L22D11D10W12L11D03LA·TAL05/10H·FC 19/10H·KUR22/10A·PAI26/10H·TRA03/11A·NÕM09/11A·TAL02/03H·FC 08/03A·KAL16/03H·VAP29/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.030.561.190.570.86
vs Stronger (14)0.431.290.571.290.291.29
vs Similar (16)0.690.810.561.110.860.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D10W30W10W21W30W00D20WH·KAL06/10H·FLO20/10A·VAP23/10H·TAM26/10A·NÕM03/11H·FC 09/11A·KUR02/03H·KAL09/03A·TRA15/03H·TAL30/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.471.250.311.360.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.360.821.430.431.251.50
vs Weaker (19)1.260.261.110.221.400.30
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TammekaTammeka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L20W01L11D10W11D11D11D02LA·TAL05/10H·FC 19/10H·KUR22/10A·PAI26/10H·TRA03/11A·NÕM09/11A·TAL02/03H·FC 08/03A·KAL16/03H·VAP29/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.731.000.690.570.79
vs Stronger (14)0.641.000.710.860.571.14
vs Similar (16)0.940.501.220.560.570.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €2m more valuable than Tammeka's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Tammeka have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
PAI wins
2
Draws
1
TAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Paide vs Tammeka · H/A from PAI
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24HPAI Vs Tammeka2-0
24/08/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-3
18/05/24ATammeka Vs PAI1-2
20/04/24HPAI Vs Tammeka0-1
30/09/23ATammeka Vs PAI1-2
19/08/23HPAI Vs Tammeka6-3
13/05/23HPAI Vs Tammeka0-0
19/03/23ATammeka Vs PAI0-0

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/25HPAI Vs Tallinna Kalev5-0
15/03/25ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-0
09/03/25HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme4-0
02/03/25AKuressaare Vs PAI1-2
09/11/24HPAI Vs FC Levadia Tallinn3-0
03/11/24ANõmme United Vs PAI0-4
26/10/24HPAI Vs Tammeka2-0
23/10/24AVaprus Vs PAI0-1
20/10/24HPAI Vs Flora Tallinn2-1
06/10/24HPAI Vs Kalju Nomme1-1

TammekaTammeka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25HTAM Vs Vaprus0-5
16/03/25AKalju Nomme Vs TAM2-2
08/03/25HTAM Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-3
02/03/25ATallinna Kalev Vs TAM1-2
09/11/24ANõmme United Vs TAM1-2
03/11/24HTAM Vs Trans Narva3-3
26/10/24APaide Vs TAM2-0
22/10/24HTAM Vs Kuressaare2-1
19/10/24HTAM Vs FC Levadia Tallinn0-3
05/10/24ATallinna Kalev Vs TAM1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.86
HomeWWWWW1.92
AwayWWWWL1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%58%58%
AVG goals3.263.253.27
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %62%58%65%
Over 3.5 %40%46%35%
Scored2.062.211.92
Conceded1.201.041.35
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Tammeka
Tammeka
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.06
HomeLWDLL1.00
AwayWLWWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%27%29%
AVG goals3.023.192.83
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %64%65%62%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.321.311.33
Conceded1.701.881.50
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet20%15%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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