Paide’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Flora Tallinn give the model a clear edge for a home win, reflected in a 76% probability. The team’s home form shows an impressive 6.0 goals scored per game and only 0.67 conceded, while Trans Narva’s away record is weaker, with zero goals scored and 3.33 conceded against stronger opponents. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 9% chance. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 76% chance, a 15% draw probability, and a 9% away win probability. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 90%, Home win at 75.7%, and Over 2.5 goals at 73.3%. The model’s edge on the 2-0 scoreline and the home team’s dominant form underline why Paide is favoured in this match.
Results analysis
Paide’s 4-2 win over Trans Narva kept the model’s prediction on target, extending the home side’s two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was a home win, assigned a 76% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals came through with a 90% chance, the home win pick had a 75.7% probability, and Over 2.5 goals was backed at 73.3%. Each probability is reported once, and every pick’s result is stated. The final score of 4-2 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paide win✓ Hit
75.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✗ Miss
9.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paide
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.54
1.08
3.50
1.33
1.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.40
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
3.75
0.88
6.00
0.67
2.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
31% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
1.58
1.50
1.17
0.67
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.60
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.33
vs Similar (7)
1.71
0.86
2.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.3%
Under 2.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
1-1
6.7%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
Paide goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
5.7%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
2
9.0%
8.6%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.6%
8.2%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
6.1%
5.9%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paide goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.69
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Paide
1.81
Kalju Nomme
1.81
Elva
1.50
Kuressaare
1.39
Tammeka
1.08
Trans Narva
1.06
Tallinna Kalev
0.97
Legion
0.76
Vaprus
0.31
Paide is 0.75 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.61
Paide
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.06
Kalju Nomme
1.64
Kuressaare
1.36
Trans Narva
1.19
Tallinna Kalev
1.17
Tammeka
1.06
Legion
0.97
Vaprus
0.89
Elva
0.50
Paide is 1.14 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.58
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.69
Kalju Nomme
0.83
Paide
1.03
Kuressaare
1.42
Elva
1.50
Tammeka
1.58
Trans Narva
1.61
Legion
2.18
Tallinna Kalev
2.56
Vaprus
2.67
Paide is 0.58 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paide
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
0.69
1.50
0.67
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
0.62
2.67
0.33
1.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
46% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.29
0.75
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paide
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
0.38
2.00
0.67
0.86
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.25
3.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.92
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.17
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.57
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paide over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide's squad is €1m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Paide and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Paide and Trans Narva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
Legion
Vaprus
Elva