Paide vs Trans Narva Result & Analysis

Paide are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 60% chance, a 23% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of a Trans Narva win. The match is expected to see about three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, which carries a 10.8% chance. Paide, playing at home against a weaker opponent, have averaged 1.86 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded. Trans Narva, on the road against a stronger side, have averaged 0.75 goals scored and 4.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.8% probability of hitting. Paide’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Trans Narva have come off two straight defeats. All figures are presented as percentages and each selection is listed with its exact probability.

The match ended in a 2-2 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite - a home win for Paide, given a 60% probability - disappointed. The model’s pick was therefore wrong. The game’s most likely scoreline, 2-0, never materialised, but the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at an 81.8% probability, hit, as the match produced four goals. Paide, riding a two-game winning run, could not finish the job, while Trans Narva, after two straight defeats, managed a respectable draw away. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the unexpected outcome, leaving the model’s prediction off the mark.